Why I believe Oklahoma State has a better case than Alabama

This essay is written on behalf of all college football fans. It is being written because ESPN and other media members are using their powers to convince voters to put Alabama in the National Championship Game without any consideration given to a superior team, Oklahoma State. Of course, everything in this composition assumes that Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma on Saturday. It is important for the power of ESPN to be questioned. When two of the five people on ESPN's BCS selection and analysis show are Alabama alumni, Rece Davis and Brad Edwards, and one other a close friend of Nick Saban's (Kirk Herbstreit), we must begin to question the motives of the individuals of the show. The fact that the commentators assume and want others to assume that Alabama is a clear #2 despite the fact that after next week, Oklahoma State will be #2 in every computer rating should raise more than a few eyebrows. Let us now actually look at the merits of both Oklahoma State and Alabama.

MERIT

Determining the relative strength of teams that do not play each other

We make judgments about the relative strength of teams that do not play each other. It is silly to say we don’t make these judgments. For instance, how do we know that LSU was better than Boise State in 2003, even though they had the same record? Or that Georgia was better than TCU?

Of course, we cannot know with any empirical certainty because to get that certainty would require that the two teams play each other.

Nonetheless, we make such judgments all the time. A team that finishes in 10-1 in the SEC or Big 10 is almost always thought of as a much, much stronger team than a CUSA team that finishes 10-1.

For instance, why in 1998 when Tennessee finished 12-0 everyone said they were the champion when Tulane also finished 12-0? It is because we have criteria on which we base these judgments. But what are the factors we use when making such a judgment? Here is a critical breakdown of what I think are the important elements that go into our rational decision making. They are ordered in order of most important to least important.

1. Win / Loss Record
2. Strength of schedule
3. Margin of victory
4. Number of ranked teams played (similar to strength of schedule, but not exactly the same because to be the best you have to beat the best).
5. Results against common opponents, if any.
6. How teams did on the road
7. Strength of defense
8. Losses compared


1. Win / Loss Record

Both Alabama and Oklahoma State are 11-1. Their records are identical, so we must then go to the strength of schedule.


2. Strength of schedule

Schedules compared side by side (OSU on left/ Alabama on right).

Oklahoma (9-3) / LSU (12-0)
Kansas State (9-2) / Arkansas (10-2)
Baylor (8-3) / Penn State (9-3)
Texas (7-4) / Auburn (7-5)
Missouri (7-5) / Florida (6-6)
Texas A&M (6-6) / Vanderbilt (6-6)
Tulsa (8-4) / Mississippi State (6-6)
Iowa State (6-5) / Tennessee (5-7)
Texas Tech (5-7) / Kent State (5-7)
Arizona (4-8) / (North Texas 4-7)
Louisiana Lafayette (8-4) / Ole Miss (2-10)
Kansas (2-10) / Georgia Southern (0-1)

Overall, Oklahoma State's opponents are a combined 77-63. Alabama's opponents are 72-60. Worse for Alabama's case is that only four of its opponents have winning records. Six of Oklahoma State's opponents have winning records. Delving even further into the strength of schedule discussion is the fact that if you went to Vegas and matched up each of the two teams' opponents, as I have done above, Oklahoma State's opponents would be favored against the corresponding opponents of Alabama in all cases except for LSU-Oklahoma and perhaps Kansas State-Arkansas. The computers do not have the built-in preseason bias and hype as the voters and are able to distinguish between the strengths of schedule. After OSU's game against OU, it will be unanimous amongst the computers: Oklahoma State has played a superior schedule and has beaten better teams throughout the entire season.


3. Margin of victory

Alabama's margin of victory is 29.9. Oklahoma State's margin of victory is 25. The difference is large in both cases, and since margin of victory is not considered by most as very important any more, the similarity here will be ignored.


4. Number of ranked teams played (used in NCAA basketball selection process)

Depending on which rankings you use, Oklahoma State has played three or four ranked teams (Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas). Alabama has played three ranked teams (LSU, Arkansas, and Penn State). If you were to look at Top 40 teams, OSU would have an even more difficult schedule. Without question, the top six teams OSU faced are more difficult than the top six teams Bama faced.


5. Results against common opponents

Unfortunately, the two teams did not play any common opponents.


6. How teams did on the road

Oklahoma State beat Tulsa (8-4), Texas A&M (6-6), Texas (7-4), Missouri (7-5), Texas Tech (5-7) and lost to Iowa State (6-5) on the road. Alabama beat Penn State (9-3), Florida (6-6), Ole Miss (2-10), Mississippi State (6-6), and Auburn (7-5) on the road. Both teams beat five teams on the road. The strength of road wins is about equal for both teams.


7. Strength of defense

Few people would argue that Alabama's defense is not better than Oklahoma State's.


8. Comparison of loss(es), if any

Oklahoma State lost in triple overtime to Iowa State at Iowa State. Alabama lost at home to LSU in overtime. Alabama's loss is less embarrassing. However, had Oklahoma State played Iowa State at home, in all likelihood, OSU would have won.


In summary, Alabama has two criteria in its favor: strength of defense and a less embarrassing loss. Oklahoma State is better in three categories: strength of schedule, number of ranked teams played, and road performance. In my opinion, on paper, both of these teams are almost even. Their resumes are not identical, but both teams have separate areas of performance that are superior to the other team's area, and these areas seem to even out.