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Comparative Stats: LSU & Arky
Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:49 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:49 am
Points For:
LSU 38
Arky 39
Points Against:
LSU 10
Arky 21
When compared to what their respective opponents average (which goes to strength of schedule):
Offense:
LSU +13
Arky +11
Defense:
LSU +16
Arky +3
These comparisons mean that LSU scores 13 pts above what their opponents give up and holds their opponents 16 pts below theirs.
LSU 38
Arky 39
Points Against:
LSU 10
Arky 21
When compared to what their respective opponents average (which goes to strength of schedule):
Offense:
LSU +13
Arky +11
Defense:
LSU +16
Arky +3
These comparisons mean that LSU scores 13 pts above what their opponents give up and holds their opponents 16 pts below theirs.
4
Posted on 11/21/11 at 9:50 am to MarkDShark
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:01 am to MarkDShark
SEC Games:
LSU O = 34.1 pt/gm
Arky O = 35.5 pt/gm
Overall wash.
LSU D = 7.1 pt/gm
Arky D = 22.3 pt/gm
3:1 advantage for LSU
Common opponents: Bama, AU, OM, TN & MS St
LSU O = 163 points, 32.6 / game
Arky O = 174 points, 34.8 / game
Again - wash
LSU D = 26 points, 5.2/game
Arky D = 100 points, 20.0/game
Advantage LSU 4:1 ratio
This game, to me, is the classic cliche of 'Defense wins Championships'. If the averages hold true the game would end up ~ 21-6/7. The spread is 13.5. Seems about right to me.
LSU O = 34.1 pt/gm
Arky O = 35.5 pt/gm
Overall wash.
LSU D = 7.1 pt/gm
Arky D = 22.3 pt/gm
3:1 advantage for LSU
Common opponents: Bama, AU, OM, TN & MS St
LSU O = 163 points, 32.6 / game
Arky O = 174 points, 34.8 / game
Again - wash
LSU D = 26 points, 5.2/game
Arky D = 100 points, 20.0/game
Advantage LSU 4:1 ratio
This game, to me, is the classic cliche of 'Defense wins Championships'. If the averages hold true the game would end up ~ 21-6/7. The spread is 13.5. Seems about right to me.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:01 am to MarkDShark
So 34-23? That sounds about right.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:03 am to ccomeaux
quote:
SEC Games
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:05 am to MarkDShark
Never seen that comparitive stat to what opponents usually average. Good stuff.
I'll add the turnover margins as well to consider:
LSU +18
Arkansas +1
Arkansas better bring their best game of the year or this is a comfortable game for the Tigers.
I'll add the turnover margins as well to consider:
LSU +18
Arkansas +1
Arkansas better bring their best game of the year or this is a comfortable game for the Tigers.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 10:06 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:16 am to TigerDoc
I got tired of hearing how great the SoCal/Ohio St/Okie offenses were about 6 or 7 years ago, so I decided to check into it.
It's impressive to say that your team scores 50 pts per game, but if their opponents normally give up 30 or 40, not so much. Houston is scoring 53/game, but their opponents are giving up 33.
I prefer to think of LSU's opponent coming into a game trying to figure out a way to make up the two touchdowns LSU's defense is not going to let them score.
It's impressive to say that your team scores 50 pts per game, but if their opponents normally give up 30 or 40, not so much. Houston is scoring 53/game, but their opponents are giving up 33.
I prefer to think of LSU's opponent coming into a game trying to figure out a way to make up the two touchdowns LSU's defense is not going to let them score.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 10:22 am to MarkDShark
Nice stats....
That is what i was thinking. The Arky fans just dont get this.
That is what i was thinking. The Arky fans just dont get this.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:47 am to LoneStarTigers
The confidennce of the Arky fans posting to this board got me looking a little deeper at these stats. Those fans need to shut up a minute and digest these...
Arky has good overall stats - but when they're outside the state of Arkansas, they have problems.
Home (in-state) games:
Arky O: 45.1 (+14 comparatively)
Arky D: 14.9 (+6)
Away games:
Arky O: 29.0 (+6)
Arky D: 32.0 (-2)
LSU Stats (for comparison):
Home:
LSU O: 42.4 (+13)
LSU D: 8.0 (+11)
Away:
LSU O: 34.2 (+12)
LSU D: 11.7 (+19)
Everything I see points to an Arky defense that just can't get off the field - especially on the road. That high-powered offense is not going to score from the bench.
I believe CLM will pound the rock - maybe even in hurry-up mode like we did against Oregon, wearing their defense out. Even though it's not pretty, it is pretty damn effective.
I think their offense will hit a couple plays - the law of averages says so. We just have to shake those two or three plays off and continue to play LSU football.
Before the Bama game, I thought it wouuld be a matter of who cracked first - neither really did.
Right now I think it's more a matter of when the Arky D will crack, not if.
Arky has good overall stats - but when they're outside the state of Arkansas, they have problems.
Home (in-state) games:
Arky O: 45.1 (+14 comparatively)
Arky D: 14.9 (+6)
Away games:
Arky O: 29.0 (+6)
Arky D: 32.0 (-2)
LSU Stats (for comparison):
Home:
LSU O: 42.4 (+13)
LSU D: 8.0 (+11)
Away:
LSU O: 34.2 (+12)
LSU D: 11.7 (+19)
Everything I see points to an Arky defense that just can't get off the field - especially on the road. That high-powered offense is not going to score from the bench.
I believe CLM will pound the rock - maybe even in hurry-up mode like we did against Oregon, wearing their defense out. Even though it's not pretty, it is pretty damn effective.
I think their offense will hit a couple plays - the law of averages says so. We just have to shake those two or three plays off and continue to play LSU football.
Before the Bama game, I thought it wouuld be a matter of who cracked first - neither really did.
Right now I think it's more a matter of when the Arky D will crack, not if.
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