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Message
If OREGON wins out, they have a stronger argument for rematch
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:09 am
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:09 am
Forget what you may or may not think about the strength of Alabama. If Oregon wins out, here's their argument:
- Both Bama and Oregon would have a loss to LSU, but Oregon's loss was the first game of the season on the road versus Bama's loss at home in November.
- Oregon would have a win against a top 10 opponent in Stanford. Bama's biggest win would be against Arkansas at home, and Arkansas will not be top 10 after losing to LSU. I don't think anyone believes that Penn State will win out, either.
- Oregon will get a bump in the computers with an extra win in the PAC 12 championship game.
- Oregon would be the champions of a major conference while Bama didn't even win it's division.
If Oklahoma State wins the Bedlam game, it's a moot point, they go. But if Oklahoma beats the Pokes, Oregon has a stronger case than Oklahoma due to having a conference championship game and having their only loss come to #1 LSU versus Oklahoma's loss at home to an unranked Texas Tech. The computers love the Big 12, but the lack of a championship game could be all of the difference needed. They currently lead Oklahoma by 1 spot in the human polls; they have ground to make up in the computers, but much can happen.
- Both Bama and Oregon would have a loss to LSU, but Oregon's loss was the first game of the season on the road versus Bama's loss at home in November.
- Oregon would have a win against a top 10 opponent in Stanford. Bama's biggest win would be against Arkansas at home, and Arkansas will not be top 10 after losing to LSU. I don't think anyone believes that Penn State will win out, either.
- Oregon will get a bump in the computers with an extra win in the PAC 12 championship game.
- Oregon would be the champions of a major conference while Bama didn't even win it's division.
If Oklahoma State wins the Bedlam game, it's a moot point, they go. But if Oklahoma beats the Pokes, Oregon has a stronger case than Oklahoma due to having a conference championship game and having their only loss come to #1 LSU versus Oklahoma's loss at home to an unranked Texas Tech. The computers love the Big 12, but the lack of a championship game could be all of the difference needed. They currently lead Oklahoma by 1 spot in the human polls; they have ground to make up in the computers, but much can happen.
This post was edited on 11/8/11 at 11:11 am
10
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:10 am to ffishstik
Agreed. Don't play a champion ship game? GTFO. THey are so focus on trying to get the rematch again that they are going to let Boise beat them into the ground.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:10 am to ffishstik
yea
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:10 am to ffishstik
I don't think either Oregon or Bama deserve a rematch against LSU. They both had their chance. They both failed.
That said, I disagree with you. Bama has a better overall resume than Oregon IMO.
That said, I disagree with you. Bama has a better overall resume than Oregon IMO.
This post was edited on 11/8/11 at 11:11 am
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:13 am to ffishstik
If Alabama played us again it would be a great, hard fought game. If Oregon played us, they would get destroyed. Probably worse than last time
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:15 am to ffishstik
personally I think Oklahoma comes out one top on that scenario. The computers love the big 12 & the sooners will get a nice bump on December 3rd by knocking off the #2 BCS team on the road.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:17 am to JPLSU1981
Right now, I agree. If Oregon wins out, LSU wins out, and Penn State drops another game, I would see it differently.
For the record, not an Oregon fan and I think that Bama would beat Oregon straight up.
As to Honkus, I agree that Oklahoma may actually be the biggest hurdle for Oregon to get back, it's just a matter of how big of a difference the extra game makes for Oregon. It will be tight!
For the record, not an Oregon fan and I think that Bama would beat Oregon straight up.
As to Honkus, I agree that Oklahoma may actually be the biggest hurdle for Oregon to get back, it's just a matter of how big of a difference the extra game makes for Oregon. It will be tight!
This post was edited on 11/8/11 at 11:19 am
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:17 am to ffishstik
quote:
If Oregon wins out, here's their argument:
You don't even need to do all of that - ANY 1-loss BCS conference champion has a superior resume to a 1-loss Bama team that doesn't even play for their conference championship.
Does that mean I think a 2-loss SEC champ should be behind a 1-loss PAC? No. Does that mean I think a 2-loss BCS conference champ should go ahead of a 1-loss Bama team? No. But a 1-loss should. 1 more win AND a BCS conference title should be enough.
However, it's not the system we signed on for - everybody knew the rules at the beginning. I don't want to play Bama again - not because I'm scared - but because they had their chance - the were weighed, measured and found wanting - in their place.
The system says if we're #1 we have to play #2. If that's Bama, so be it.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:17 am to Honkus
History shows that its better to lose late in the season than early in the season
Either way we are either playing Oklahoma/ okie state/ Stanford in the BCSNCG
Either way we are either playing Oklahoma/ okie state/ Stanford in the BCSNCG
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:18 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
That said, I disagree with you. Bama has a better overall resume than Oregon IMO.
If Oregon wins out and is the Pac-12 champ with 1 loss?
Really?
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:19 am to Ace Midnight
Is there an actual bonus for winning a conference championship game? Or just a bonus in the minds of the voters?
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:20 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
Either way we are either playing Oklahoma/ okie state/ Stanford in the BCSNCG
I agree with this - the computers love the Big-12 so far this season, and there is less time for that to change dramatically. I think a 1-loss Big-12 champ will continue to rise (and it's very likely that will be Oklahoma or Okie State, should they lose to either TT or the Sooners).
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:22 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
Bama has a better overall resume than Oregon IMO
I would say neither team deserves a rematch... bring on someone new.. But.... no way Bama has a better resume, IF Oregon beats Stanford.... like the OP said, Oregon beating Stan. would hav them beating a top 5 team, which Bama cant claim. and Oregon would be Conference Champs., Bama didnt even win thier division... IF it plays this way, no way Bama could be ranked before Oregon.... (Even though I agree, Bama would beat Oregon down in head up play)
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:23 am to Ace Midnight
Computers love the big 12 & hate the PAC. I don't see much of a bump for beating a top 20 Arizona State team, at home in the CCG.
Beating OSU on the road carries more weight.
Bama needs a lot of shite to happen to backdoor into the BCSCG. Besides their SoS will only get worse as the season goes on.
Beating OSU on the road carries more weight.
Bama needs a lot of shite to happen to backdoor into the BCSCG. Besides their SoS will only get worse as the season goes on.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:30 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
Is there an actual bonus for winning a conference championship game? Or just a bonus in the minds of the voters?
Both. This is where Brad Edwards and the "gurus" who base their projections primarily on the computer formulas miss the mark. You have to account for voter psychology, and that's an inexact science. I've limited my prognostications to a smaller group, but have actually called it right every time since the 2003 game.
For the record, this is not my prediction, it's just a statement on who has the stronger argument for a rematch between Bama and Oregon. My guess at this point is that it will be the Okie State if they win out, Stanford if they win out, or Oklahoma if they beat Ok State. There is always voter sentiment to NOT see a rematch, and that would work in Oklahoma's favor.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:33 am to ffishstik
If we slip up and lose a game, is it a possibility that we wouild have beaten both teams in the NC away from home? I wonder what that would do to the BCS and the AP poll? Could we be on the USC side of it?
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:37 am to ffishstik
Under your scenario I think Boise gets the chance to play LSU, especially if we win a close game against Georgia in the SECCG.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:37 am to ffishstik
I beg ya'll. Lets get there ourselves first. I like everyones enthusiasm and positives and I think we can beat anyone now, but lets not give anyone including Arky, Georgia or SC any extra incentive.
Posted on 11/8/11 at 11:39 am to ffishstik
quote:
Oregon would be the champions of a major conference....
Posted on 11/8/11 at 12:08 pm to mattchewbocca
quote:
Arky, Georgia or SC
Those will be significant challenges - throwing out the Bama game because of the 2 defenses, we also struggled to score against Mississippi State, a team that is solid, but not the same caliber as Arky or UGA.
I think Arky will be the second biggest challenge this season, after Bama, including the BCS opponent. I base this on the quality of offensive coaching at Arky, their historical playing of us above their average performance, and the stress on the team of finishing a regular season undefeated - there is a reason it does not happen very often.
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