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Started By
Message
Economy faces new recession: ECRI
Posted on 9/30/11 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 9/30/11 at 3:59 pm
3
Posted on 9/30/11 at 4:26 pm to kfizzle85
Yeah, this feels like 2008 all over. Watching commodities tank, even fertilizer stocks is not a good thing at all. I've been in cash only for a while.
I found this statement from ECRI:
Edited to fix link below.
LINK
I found this statement from ECRI:
quote:
It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle. It means that the jobless rate, already above 9%, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar.
Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street.
Edited to fix link below.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/30/11 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 9/30/11 at 5:07 pm to kfizzle85
I feel as if I've allowed myself to fall behind on economic acronyms.
Posted on 10/1/11 at 5:36 am to Doc Fenton
When I was working back in 2008, I told my coworkers we were in a recession in Oct. News didn't report it till Dec. 
All my coworkers 
when I told them this. I had went to all cash then as I been for 3 months now. This time it will hit Baton Rouge area, were last time it didn't hit us hard like the rest of the country.
All my coworkers when I told them this. I had went to all cash then as I been for 3 months now. This time it will hit Baton Rouge area, were last time it didn't hit us hard like the rest of the country.Posted on 10/1/11 at 6:54 am to kfizzle85
the big R was papered over by gov deficit spending over the last three years.
The fed is out of bullets, and the gov is printing money like there's no tomorrow. After all every dollar of deficit spending is a dollar printed, ie a dollar created backed by nothing but a future promise to pay.
GDP is being propped up by that printed money.
Hows the DJIA doing since 2000?
Flat? Extremely volatile?
PMs?
Anybody denying the conditions in this country either has an agenda, or has their head up their arse.
I blame it on both parties and their policies of free trade, currency debasement, endless war, and pandering to multi-national corps and banks.
We, as a country, truly are fricked and the prospects for our kids (who's parents are not OT balla rich) are not good.
Deny it if you wish, the math doesn't care.
The fed is out of bullets, and the gov is printing money like there's no tomorrow. After all every dollar of deficit spending is a dollar printed, ie a dollar created backed by nothing but a future promise to pay.
GDP is being propped up by that printed money.
Hows the DJIA doing since 2000?
Flat? Extremely volatile?
PMs?
Anybody denying the conditions in this country either has an agenda, or has their head up their arse.
I blame it on both parties and their policies of free trade, currency debasement, endless war, and pandering to multi-national corps and banks.
We, as a country, truly are fricked and the prospects for our kids (who's parents are not OT balla rich) are not good.
Deny it if you wish, the math doesn't care.
Posted on 10/1/11 at 12:19 pm to WNCTiger
Well then.
Posted on 10/1/11 at 1:52 pm to kfizzle85
So since this is being posted about it should be priced in right?
Posted on 10/1/11 at 1:57 pm to John Merlyn
Is it time to get in cash, or try to wait it out?
Posted on 10/1/11 at 2:05 pm to John Merlyn
Everything is priced in, it doesn't mean it's necessarily priced in accurately though IMO. I think a mild US/EU recession is somewhat already priced in, personally.
Posted on 10/1/11 at 2:56 pm to kfizzle85
quote:I was thinking that the market was in fear mode, and that a ression would almost be completely priced in.
Everything is priced in, it doesn't mean it's necessarily priced in accurately though IMO. I think a mild US/EU recession is somewhat already priced in, personally.
Posted on 10/1/11 at 4:39 pm to John Merlyn
quote:
So since this is being posted about it should be priced in right?
If it is only a mild recession that is probably true. Going back to 2008 ECRI didn't call a recession until March of that year, well after it had already started. The market didn't hit bottom until early 2009. It does not sound like ECRI is expecting only a mild recession this time. For more detail you can see a 10 minute interview with the co-founder of ECRI here:
LINK
In it he does say that they do not know how deep this will be but a shallow recession is the best case.
They are by no means infallible. Warren Buffet said a couple of days ago "It's very, very unlikely we'll go back into a recession... We're coming out of a recession." so the recession call is not a given.
What worries me most is the last few months - gold, copper, aluminum, corn and fertilizers, the Brazilian Real, the Australian Dollar are all getting killed while the US Dollar is on the rise as a safe haven. People are voting with their pocketbooks like they did in 2008. Last time there was the collapse of US financial institutions. This time there is the mess in Europe.
They say that history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme.
Anyway, that is $0.02 from someone with no real background in this but I do pay a lot of attention as I manage my retirement accounts myself and take that very seriously.
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