Tuscaloosa Marine Shale | Page 12 | TigerDroppings.com

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Nodust
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Thats a good idea. Everybody wins. Already got a lease but may keep in mind for the future.





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Clyde Tipton
LSU Fan
Planet Earth
Member since Dec 2007
22268 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

Already got a lease


What Parish?






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Nodust
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Member since Aug 2010
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

What Parish?
County in Mississippi






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darbour21
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baton rouge
Member since Jan 2006
1918 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Bump to read later.... We have property off backwater road that is bout to be leased to drill on....





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redstick13
Wofford Fan
Cameroon
Member since Feb 2007
22425 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Formation is at the same depths as the Niobrara in Colorado. Colorado has the Rollins gas sand above though and extensive infrastructure already in place. Operators can even use the wellbores of depleted gas wells for re-entry and sidetrack.





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Nodust
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Member since Aug 2010
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Any new drilling rigs in the Amite/Wilkinson area?

Haven't been up in the area since hunting season.






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BigAppleTiger
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Dec 2008
6569 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


I'll jump in with a question. My family has had a lease for natural gas for thirty years in Morganza (Lacour/Debetas Well) The payouts for our parcel used to be decent per month but in the last 10 years they have gone down to about 20% of previous value . Everyone I've ever spoken that works in the industry says it will payoff huge in the future... anyone got any idea when?


This post was edited on 6/16 at 5:31 pm


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Nodust
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Member since Aug 2010
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


So there is a gas well producing on the leased land?

Leases are fixed rate per acre and normally only for 3-5 years. If you have a gas well on the property you are getting royalties. Wells decline in production over years. Maybe they are thinking that an oil well will be drilled in the property.






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BigAppleTiger
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Dec 2008
6569 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Yep. It has been producing for thirty years now. The royalties have gone down to a few hundred a month. Perhaps it's like you say and the prospect of oil is at play as well in my informed friends opinion. Other more informed on this board may know.





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Nodust
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Member since Aug 2010
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Check out Tuscaloosa Trends. There is a google map that shows where wells are permitted and being drilled. Also Haynesville Shale forum. I'll try to link them tomorrow if you can't find them.

Lots of info out there about where wells are permitted and where the hot spots are. Not familiar with your area.






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Nodust
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Member since Aug 2010
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Tuscaloosa Trend

Go Haynesville Shale

Both have some info.






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Nodust
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2010
18846 posts
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Yahoo Finance about Encana

quote:

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale – Encana has established an industry leading land position in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale totaling approximately 355,000 net acres. The two most recent wells (Anderson 17H-1 and 18H-1) have horizontal lateral lengths of about 7,400 feet and 8,800 feet and produced initial 30-day production rates of 930 and 1,080 barrels of 40 degree API gravity oil per day. Encana plans to drill a total of 12 wells in the play in 2012.



This post was edited on 6/22 at 10:50 am


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cuyahoga tiger
LSU Fan
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
1271 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


My family has 20 acres just south of Amite and have not had any inquiries on leasing property for the TMS. Can I read anything into this or is the parcel size just to small?





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Nodust
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2010
18846 posts
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


Ask neighboring property owners if they have gotten any leases. I'm not familiar with that area. Small parcel sizes do matter but if neighbors have leases then you may get a call.





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TigerBite
LSU Fan
Dallas
Member since Feb 2004
1934 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

The oil out of these wells will get a ~$20 premium over the WTI price, so that should help out the well with making economic sense.


This is off a bit. I'd have to look at prompt LLS at the time of posting, but today it's $15-16 over WTI with a "tropical" premium thrown in there as of Friday. Probably looking at +$8.00 at best after transportation and margins thrown in there.

June LLS spread was ~$14, so not sure where the $20 is coming from. At the lease that translates to much lower.






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TigerV
Member since Feb 2007
1036 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

Huh??? If they produce an average of 250 bopd @ $80/bbl that's $7.3 MM a year. It's paid off in less than 2 years.. I'll take that


Keep in mind that the $10MM number does not include production costs, marketing and trucking costs, all of which is minimal. What is not is that these operators are only getting 75% net revenue and the mineral owner get on average 25%. So drop that $7.3MM down to $5.4MM.

We have still not seen the long term production numbers. There has been a lot of improvement and learning with the longer laterals and more frac stages, but keep in mind there are operational limitations with these long laterals. THere is a physical limit to how long the wells can be (8000 ft + 13,000 ft TVD = 21,000 ft) most coil tubing used to drill out the frac plugs have 19,500 ft restrictions. Under the right circumstances this can be increased and they are obviously looking for ways to make this work. The oil is there and it can be very lucrative to make it work, but i still believe we are a few years away before you see the kind of drilling that is in North Dakota and TX. There still needs to be improvements to technology and frac designs to overcome the poorer quality of the rock.






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Athanatos
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Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


LLS is coming lower as the pipeline/rail buildout reduces the oversupply glut at Cushing and shifts it to the Gulf Coast. Not an overnight event but the writing is on the wall.





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Beerinthepocket
LSU Fan
Dallas
Member since May 2011
595 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

TigerBite


You may be right, that's just what we had heard from some people in the industry.






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redstick13
Wofford Fan
Cameroon
Member since Feb 2007
22425 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

Encana plans to drill a total of 12 wells in the play in 2012.


That's unfortunate. Encana has the worst track record when it comes to community satisfaction. They would be the last company I'd want in my neighborhood.






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TigerBite
LSU Fan
Dallas
Member since Feb 2004
1934 posts

re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale


quote:

You may be right, that's just what we had heard from some people in the industry


April and May LLS averaged $20 over WTI, so the pure numbers they were throwing out may have been true at the time. June was $14 and July is about $12.50. It's trending lower because of the glut of light sweet crude that is hitting the gulf coast from Bakken, West Texas, South Texas, the GOM, and in some cases, West Africa. Hurricane season is tricky, but the general trend will be lower because of the infrastructure relieving pressure on Cushing (like Athanatos said). These are amounts paid at St. James though and they don't account for transportation, margins, etc., so the the netback at the lease will probably run at least $5 lower than LLS, and possibly a lot more depending on who is in the middle and exactly where the crude is coming from as well as quality.

I just don't think it's something to bank on from here on out because in all likelihood that spread is only going to shrink as a long term trend.

Crude is starting to see an oversupply situation to that which natural gas has gone through and the oil rig count needs to shrink or things could get ugly.






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