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Money Question--Open Market SALES

Posted on 5/3/11 at 1:07 pm
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 1:07 pm
Quick monetary policy inquiry for those with some expertise:

I understand that open market purchases are designed to increase the money supply and lower interest rates by increases the amount of reserves in the system, and open market SALES are designed to accomplish just the opposite.

What I don't quite understand is what happens with the funds the Fed receives from its open market sale of securities. Does it literally "destroy" this money as if it never existed, or does it remain on the Fed's balance sheet and eventually get remitted to the Treasury?

For instance, in our current financial crisis, the Fed has bought up an insane amount of Agency and Treasury Debt. If, for whatever reason, recovery hastened and the Fed needed to drain money out of the system, would it just buy up, say, $100 billion in Treasuries, and press the "delete" button (so to speak)--as if the money never existed in the first place. Or would it take that $100 billion and keep it on its books (potentially to remit to the treasury).

Thanks for the help. I'm sure its something simple I'm missing here.
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 3:53 pm
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 1:46 pm to
Maybe this link will help you to understand the operation. Reverse operation.

quote:

It is important to remember that the FED does not issue government bonds, government bonds are issued by the US Treasury department. If the FED were holding a mature government bond the Treasury would be obligated to pay off the face value to the FED, just as if it were a private business or bank.)


LINK

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

I understand that open market sales are designed to increase the money supply
Backwards.
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 4:02 pm to
Thanks for the help, Blakely. I'm still a bit confused.

In this money creation process, the Fed is buying securities by "creating money out of thin air" i.e. crediting the seller's account and thereby increasing the amount of reserves in the system. But when it sells them back, what is it getting in return? Federal Reserve Notes? Where does that shite go? If it goes back to the treasury, the money supply doesn't decrease. If it stays on the Fed's books, I don't see how they can ever permanently subtract from the monetary base.

I'll try to mull it over a bit more
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

But when it sells them back, what is it getting in return?
It doesn't "sell them back." The Fed sells securities on the market, usually to banks or other institutional investors. The fed debits the buyer's account (at the fed) and credits cash.
quote:

Where does that shite go?
The fed's cash position increases.

quote:

If it stays on the Fed's books, I don't see how they can ever permanently subtract from the monetary base.
Cash in the fed's account is not in circulation and cannot by loaned out by commercial banks.
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 5:28 pm to
quote:

But when it sells them back, what is it getting in return? Federal Reserve Notes?


The transactions are digital.

Don't think you are the only one mulling this over. A lot of really smart people have a lot of questions about how the FED is going to shrink their balance sheet. THE MBS purchases will be worked off over time. The ugly secret about the balance sheet is that these securities are probably not worth their booked value.

If the FED were to start selling into a bond market of thin buyers, it would cause bonds to suffer price losses and interest a rise in interest rates that would blow their balance sheet. As a country, the USA cannot afford to pay much higher interest rates on our debt. Banks buying back bonds in this environment would experience same kind of losses.

Some feel the FED is boxed in. It's really more complicated than this, but trying to keep it simple.

JMO, but I think that Bernanke will be trying to keep the balance sheet pretty steady for quite a while. I think that the .gov is trying to find something (i.e. Green Energy) that would create a true economic expansion like the tech expansion to try and get out of this mess. So far, most of the money has gone to create a bubble in student loan debt and commodities.

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

If the FED were to start selling into a bond market of thin buyers, it would cause bonds to suffer price losses
The U.S. security market is the broadest, most liquid market in the world. Where do you get your facts that it is "thin"?
quote:

interest a rise in interest rates that would blow their balance sheet.
Explain what you mean by it would "blow their balance sheet."

The fed does not have to sell any securities to shrink its balance sheet. It can simply allow the securities to mature and collect the funds due from the maturity.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 5:52 pm to
quote:

The ugly secret about the balance sheet is that these securities are probably not worth their booked value.


Agency MBS =/= Private Label MBS. They aren't even close to the same thing, and the Fed only holds one of these. It's far from an "ugly secret" about private label mbs, unless you consider a global credit crisis, halving of major capital market indicies, and a ~2 year whipsaw recession to be secrets.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 5:54 pm to
quote:

The U.S. security market is the broadest, most liquid market in the world. Where do you get your facts that it is "thin"?



May be similar to that other poster saying that CDs were terrible for spare cash because they were "most definitely not liquid."
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

It doesn't "sell them back." The Fed sells securities on the market, usually to banks or other institutional investors. The fed debits the buyer's account (at the fed) and credits cash.


So its basically a balance sheet switch. In an OMP, the Fed picks up an asset (say, Treasuries) and an offsetting liability (cash). Conversely, in an OMSale, the Fed picks up cash and loses the treasury. Am I correct?

And I understand Cash on the Fed's account can't be loaned out by other banks and so isn't part of the MB technically. But I just was under the impression the Fed had to remit that (seignorage) profit to the treasury.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 6:42 pm to
quote:

But I just was under the impression the Fed had to remit that (seignorage) profit to the treasury.
Profits must be remitted to the treasury. Cash received for selling a security is NOT profit.
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:31 pm to
good point.

Clearly my Accounting 101 is rusty. I just have trouble conceptualizing T-charts with an institution that can "create money out of think air."
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 7:37 pm
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 7:58 pm to
Its bizarre from an accounting standpoint because, like gov accounting, there isn't any equity, because there isn't any owners, and there isn't any retained earnings.
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 8:15 pm to
If memory serves me right, the member banks are the shareholders and virtually any profit (assets in excess of liabilities) are remitted to the Treasury.
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 8:23 pm to
Perhaps a better word rather than "destroy" money is to say the Fed retires the FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES that return to it via, say, Open Market sales?
This post was edited on 5/3/11 at 8:24 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

any profit (assets in excess of liabilities) are remitted to the Treasury.


. You might want to refresh your accounting definitions regarding "profit."
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/3/11 at 10:55 pm to
meant to say net worth.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 5/4/11 at 7:51 am to
quote:

meant to say net worth.
Okay, but that makes your original statement questionable. The Fed does not remit its net worth to the Treasury.....
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 5/5/11 at 10:22 pm to
For anyone else who might be interested, I found this link and it really helped answer my initial question:

LINK
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 5/6/11 at 7:36 am to
Yeah that's pretty much spot on, good link.
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