- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Molycorp(MCP)
Posted on 1/3/11 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 1/3/11 at 2:43 pm
Anybody know much about this company? I know it a mineral and rare earth company. It is up 300% since IPO in July. Analyst are predicting 70% more to come. Anybody been tracking this company?
4
Posted on 1/3/11 at 3:06 pm to NELAtigers
Tracking for a long time. Rare-earths will continue to see increasing demand for a long time because we use them in about every type of popular electronics we use. Now, the new Gerald Ford class aircraft carriers are switching from the steel-launchers to rare-earth magnetized launchers. Morgan Stanley estimates this will add another 10,000 tonnes of demand per year.
The problem with rare-earth mines is they take so damn long to make. Right now China controls 97% of the rare-earth mines in the world and MCP has been a beneficiary of them announcing taxes on rare-earth exports along with decreasing exports. Australia has a few mines in progress but they won't be ready for 2011 and probably not 2012.
Huge tailwinds from a demand perspective, however a huge red flag was raised about a month ago. In an interview, CEO Mike Smith called the run-up a bubble based on speculation. He later took the comment back on CNBC and stated that the reason he took it back was because "I learned to interview better". Take it for what it's worth.
I would still recommend loading up on it, but Smith's comments made me slightly hesitant on it.
The problem with rare-earth mines is they take so damn long to make. Right now China controls 97% of the rare-earth mines in the world and MCP has been a beneficiary of them announcing taxes on rare-earth exports along with decreasing exports. Australia has a few mines in progress but they won't be ready for 2011 and probably not 2012.
Huge tailwinds from a demand perspective, however a huge red flag was raised about a month ago. In an interview, CEO Mike Smith called the run-up a bubble based on speculation. He later took the comment back on CNBC and stated that the reason he took it back was because "I learned to interview better". Take it for what it's worth.
I would still recommend loading up on it, but Smith's comments made me slightly hesitant on it.
Posted on 1/3/11 at 3:20 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
I got in at $32, but wonder how much higher it can really go. Honestly thougt it would somewhat stabilize this week, but its killing again today. I read about the "speculation bubble" comment as well, and it was slightly alarming. The company isn't even expecting profit until mid 2011, and thats if the Mountain Pass mine becomes ready to produce.
Is what I fear is driving much of the industry increase. That can't last, no?
You would hold for a while more?
quote:
them announcing taxes on rare-earth exports along with decreasing exports.
Is what I fear is driving much of the industry increase. That can't last, no?
quote:
I would still recommend loading up on it
You would hold for a while more?
This post was edited on 1/3/11 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 1/3/11 at 3:32 pm to MSMHater
quote:
You would hold for a while more?
I honestly think it can easily break $65-$70 within 1-2 months, maybe sooner. I know that's crazy considering its 50DMA is at $35, but every trader I have talked to about this stock has said it is a terrific play and clients are still lining up to buy it. It goes against every type of technical analysis you can think of, its already well above two standard deviations above the 50DMA.
I think China will continue to restrict exports. They have shown they do not give a frick about negotiating politically or economically with us. They understand how vital rare-earths are to electronics in the future. This is part of the reason I have thrown technical analysis out the window with MCP.
Posted on 1/3/11 at 8:29 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
New estimates came out today of 83 I believe. It jumped 15% today. Thanks for the information.
Posted on 1/4/11 at 5:01 pm to NELAtigers
It's up again today. Wish i would have gotten my etrade account funded a few days ago.
Posted on 1/5/11 at 11:32 am to NELAtigers
Posted on 1/5/11 at 3:32 pm to Davbrucas
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/6/11 at 9:27 am
Posted on 1/5/11 at 3:59 pm to NELAtigers
Man, I've been watching the rare earth story for a few months, but I just didn't have the balls to jump in. As ridiculous as MCP has been, SHZ is even crazier. It went from one dollar to ten dollars in a couple of months.
Posted on 1/5/11 at 7:19 pm to RabidTiger
i just don't know enough about REE. got burned on some natural gas a few years ago and think this stuff will be similar to that.
Posted on 1/5/11 at 10:23 pm to NELAtigers
Any idea what SHZ estimates are? I am trying to find some financials on them and not having a lot of luck.
Posted on 1/5/11 at 11:16 pm to NELAtigers
RE: MCP
You should thank your advisor for not recommending this stock.
A few concerning things: The CEO said when the stock was $30 that it was a bubble. The total sales of all suppliers for this space was less than 1.5 billion and this stock's market cap is more than 3 times that. This mine that they point to won't be online till 2012. Only 1% of this mine has the true rare earth elements. What happens when China says they are increasing exports due to increased prices? China isn't cutting back on production of these so called rare earths for their domestic needs.
The "analyst" that came out with the $85 price target works for the one of the companies that underwrote the IPO. No conflict there
The Fast Money team today said this was overvalued, insane, and others on CNBC dropped hints the last couple of days that this is tulip mania.
Another reason you should stay away is that the lockup expiration is coming up later this month and lots of shares will flood the market. Look at MOTR and TSLA to see what happens to the stock price after the IPO lock up expiration.
TSLA lock up expiration 12/27/10. On the last day to trade prior to 12/27 which was 12/23/10, the stock traded as high as 32.48 and on 12/27 it traded as low as 25.06 for a 22% drop in one day. It is still down over 17% if you use today's closing price.
TSLA lost 10% with a month prior to the lock up expiration in TSLA to the last day of trading prior to the lock up.
MOTR lock up expiration 12/15 and it lost over 21% from the prior day's high and still down over 11% using today's price.
A little over a month prior to the lock up expiration in MOTR to the last day of trading prior to the lock up, the stock went down over 29%.
I suspect a bloodbath is on the horizon with MCP.
quote:
i thought when i found a financial advisor he would find companies like this but i guess i was wrong.
You should thank your advisor for not recommending this stock.
A few concerning things: The CEO said when the stock was $30 that it was a bubble. The total sales of all suppliers for this space was less than 1.5 billion and this stock's market cap is more than 3 times that. This mine that they point to won't be online till 2012. Only 1% of this mine has the true rare earth elements. What happens when China says they are increasing exports due to increased prices? China isn't cutting back on production of these so called rare earths for their domestic needs.
The "analyst" that came out with the $85 price target works for the one of the companies that underwrote the IPO. No conflict there
The Fast Money team today said this was overvalued, insane, and others on CNBC dropped hints the last couple of days that this is tulip mania.
Another reason you should stay away is that the lockup expiration is coming up later this month and lots of shares will flood the market. Look at MOTR and TSLA to see what happens to the stock price after the IPO lock up expiration.
TSLA lock up expiration 12/27/10. On the last day to trade prior to 12/27 which was 12/23/10, the stock traded as high as 32.48 and on 12/27 it traded as low as 25.06 for a 22% drop in one day. It is still down over 17% if you use today's closing price.
TSLA lost 10% with a month prior to the lock up expiration in TSLA to the last day of trading prior to the lock up.
MOTR lock up expiration 12/15 and it lost over 21% from the prior day's high and still down over 11% using today's price.
A little over a month prior to the lock up expiration in MOTR to the last day of trading prior to the lock up, the stock went down over 29%.
I suspect a bloodbath is on the horizon with MCP.
Posted on 1/6/11 at 8:36 am to tigerfan4444
I did not know about MCP having a share lockup. Do you know of a date range for when new shares are expected to enter the market?
I saw the Fast Money segment on MCP and personally, I would take that at a bullish sign. That's just because I am skeptical of any main stream media source. Especially one where Erin Burnett will call Micheal Pento rude and kick him off for simply disagreeing with her.
I saw the Fast Money segment on MCP and personally, I would take that at a bullish sign. That's just because I am skeptical of any main stream media source. Especially one where Erin Burnett will call Micheal Pento rude and kick him off for simply disagreeing with her.
Posted on 1/6/11 at 9:16 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
I am trying to get the exact date, but it seems it is January 25-27 for MCP.
The people on Fast Money are not right 100% of the time, but these guys/gal have more knowledge and experience than everyone on this board.
I was long the MCP Jan 30 calls in early December for $3.50 and sold for a 25% gain the same day. Of course I should have hung on for a few weeks and cashed out for a $30K gain on January 4. I went long on the 50 puts December 28 for a 50% gain the same day.
What media sources do you use -- the ones you trust?
The people on Fast Money are not right 100% of the time, but these guys/gal have more knowledge and experience than everyone on this board.
I was long the MCP Jan 30 calls in early December for $3.50 and sold for a 25% gain the same day. Of course I should have hung on for a few weeks and cashed out for a $30K gain on January 4. I went long on the 50 puts December 28 for a 50% gain the same day.
What media sources do you use -- the ones you trust?
Posted on 1/6/11 at 9:21 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
By share lock up ~ I was referencing the shares that insiders can sell that were locked up from the IPO and not a secondary offering.
Posted on 1/6/11 at 11:32 am to tigerfan4444
I use a variety of sources but in certain contexts.
For metals, I use Kitco.com for basic information and futures information. For metals "behind the scenes" contracts I use lemetropolecafe.com. I know Bill Murphy so that's how I got the Le Metro subscription. I have to filter through that like I have to filter Zero Hedge sometimes.
For SOME information, I read Zero Hedge regularly but I have read it for a while so I can filter through the bearish cherry-picked information somewhat well. Regardless of how bearish they are, they still report things most people never do an publish some JPM, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and SocGen reports.
For bottom-up trends, I like reading Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust blog. He does tremendous work and I still haven't seen an instance where he has been dead wrong. The only one he looks close to wrong is his call that the New York public library killed the Barnes and Noble e-book model, bit he may very well be right about that eventually.
For equities and general market consensus, I read Gluskin-Sheff's Breakfast With Dave from Dave Rosenberg on a regular basis. My company subscribes to BofAML, Credit Suisse, and UBS so I read those as well.
For headlines I just use the trading wire that usually links the AP, Business Wire, and PR Newswire. I read Bloomberg, Reuters, and WSJ as well, but thats mainly to see what the average citizen is reading/believing. Not to say those sources aren't good at their job, but it's obvious they have agendas at times.
For metals, I use Kitco.com for basic information and futures information. For metals "behind the scenes" contracts I use lemetropolecafe.com. I know Bill Murphy so that's how I got the Le Metro subscription. I have to filter through that like I have to filter Zero Hedge sometimes.
For SOME information, I read Zero Hedge regularly but I have read it for a while so I can filter through the bearish cherry-picked information somewhat well. Regardless of how bearish they are, they still report things most people never do an publish some JPM, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and SocGen reports.
For bottom-up trends, I like reading Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust blog. He does tremendous work and I still haven't seen an instance where he has been dead wrong. The only one he looks close to wrong is his call that the New York public library killed the Barnes and Noble e-book model, bit he may very well be right about that eventually.
For equities and general market consensus, I read Gluskin-Sheff's Breakfast With Dave from Dave Rosenberg on a regular basis. My company subscribes to BofAML, Credit Suisse, and UBS so I read those as well.
For headlines I just use the trading wire that usually links the AP, Business Wire, and PR Newswire. I read Bloomberg, Reuters, and WSJ as well, but thats mainly to see what the average citizen is reading/believing. Not to say those sources aren't good at their job, but it's obvious they have agendas at times.
Posted on 1/18/11 at 9:59 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
Anybody thinking of shorting MCP and SHZ?
Posted on 1/18/11 at 12:06 pm to NELAtigers
I am short by going long the Feb puts.
I've heard it is tough to borrow shares to short.
Since I wrote about the anticipated bloodbath in MCP on 1/5/11, Molycorp has gone from $60.70 to $45.70 at noon today.
I've heard it is tough to borrow shares to short.
Since I wrote about the anticipated bloodbath in MCP on 1/5/11, Molycorp has gone from $60.70 to $45.70 at noon today.
Posted on 1/18/11 at 12:13 pm to tigerfan4444
insiders can dump their shares on 1/25/11. i expect most will cash in on the 25th.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News