HARRIS POLL - LSU #9

Coaches- LSU #10

BCS standings - LSU #9

Let’s try and keep all the BCS discussion in one thread if we can. Bets on the first person to claim it is too early to talk about this? Or the person who insists on making football not fun by saying LSU will lose 3 more games?

Virginia Tech’s loss was a good one as their tough OOC schedule could have caused problems for LSU. Likewise for Ohio State. Now LSU just needs either Iowa or Texas to lose and they likely control their own destiny. Here is a first guess at the BCS standings. I haven’t done any calculations or anything (Harris poll and computers not really out yet), just a best guess.

1. Florida. Win out and they are in obviously. I am not quite as high as most if Florida drops a game. Their schedule is relatively weak avoiding Ole Miss, Bama, and Auburn in the regular season. Their OOC schedule is terrible, with a mediocre FSU the only thing of note. Moreover, any loss is now is a bad loss (and a late loss). I think USC could definitely finish higher in the computers and I would bet 50/50 if it came down to those two.

2. Bama. Win out and they are in. Playing in the SECW and beating Va Tech OOC makes them more appealing than Florida (at least to the computers). I don’t think they can lose to LSU (and be left out of the SECCG) or lose the SECCG. But any other loss, and they probably get in over USC.

3. Texas. Win out and they are in. But Texas’ weak schedule doesn’t bode well at all if they lose a game. I would think most 1-loss BCS teams as well as undefeated Cincy might be in better shape.

4. Boise State. They may have hit a ceiling here. Their schedule will just get worse and their computer score potentially abysmal. They need Oregon to win out to have any shot. If Oregon becomes a National Title contender themselves, it could get interesting. The Human polls would likely have Boise higher, but Oregon would be higher in the computers. How is that for controversy if 1-loss Oregon plays over undefeated Boise for a NC?

5. Cincy. Well this will get interesting if they go undefeated and it comes down to them and a 1-loss BCS team. Cincy actually plays in the third best conference statistically and has a respectable OOC schedule. But their computer score is going to hurt them still and they dont play anyone close to a top-10 caliber opponent. 1-loss SEC and Pac10 teams get in over Cincy, but I am not sure about Texas or Big 10 schools.

6. Iowa. Win out and have Texas or both Bama and UF lose and they are in. Any loss would require a minor miracle to get them in I think. Iowa’s computer score is very good despite any top-level opponents. Not sure if they can keep it up.

7. USC. They play in the 2nd toughest conference, have 2 nice OOC road wins, lost early without their starting QB, and they have been the team perennially left out of the BCSCG. At 1-loss they are in good shape against any 1-loss team except the SEC teams. I think they even stand a good chance (50/50?) against 1-loss Florida and a decent chance against 1-loss Bama. The bad news is they lost to a Washington team that may finish with a losing record. That could weight them down like an anchor in the computers.

8. TCU. They are in a similar boat as Boise State, They play a harder overall schedule but don’t have a team like Oregon either. If they went undefeated, not sure they would jump any 1-loss teams.

9. LSU. With all of LSU’s problems, they still almost control their own destiny. Things don’t look quite as good as they did a few weeks ago for SEC teams, but LSU still plays all the big boys in the SEC (and maybe Florida twice). Their OOC schedule isn’t anything to write home about, but Washington aint bad and La Tech and ULL are better rent-a-wins than expected. I think LSU will be fine against any 1-loss team. USC would be an interesting argument, but I would think LSU finishes with a slightly better computer score. Also, if it came down to the two, Washington tanking down the stretch would probably be a good thing for LSU.

10. Miami. They play in a weak ACC, but play a good OOC schedule so they may do well in the computers. They still don’t control their destiny for the ACCCG (which would be a must). They probably get in over 1-loss Big10 teams and maybe Texas, not sure about USC though.

11. Oregon. I said before the season that they had a BCS friendly schedule and at 1-loss could be in very good shape. I like them over any 1-loss BCS school except maybe the SEC schools. Again, they probably finish above undefeated Boise in the computers, so that would be an interesting argument.

12. Ga Tech. Similar boat with Miami. Nice OOC schedule gives them hope, but they need to make the ACCCG.

13. Penn State. I think they would need a minor miracle with their relatively weak schedule. But I think we could see a repeat of 2007, with even 2-loss teams being in the race.

**I will update this as more polls and computers are released, but this is probably close. Also, I will verify some of the commentary by running some future computer poll simulations.