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BCS works __% of the time? 27%

Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:23 am
Posted by tiger in the gump
Member since Jan 2005
775 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:23 am
What do you say?
98 - OSU was left out
99 - two undefeated (doesn't mean it worked)
2000 - Miami shafted
2001 - Neb should've never been either Oregon or CU
2002 - two undefeated(doesn't mean it worked)
2003 - OU should've never been
2004 - Undef. Auburn and Utah left out (gay)
2005 - two undefeated(doesn't mean it worked)
2006 - USC and FL one loss, and OSU didn't look like it shouldn't been in it
2007 - there were at least two other teams with 2 losses (USC & GA)
2008 - TX, USC left out.

So if you want to say it just so happens two teams undefeated means it works. Then BCS works 27% of time
Posted by I-59 Tiger
Vestavia Hills, AL
Member since Sep 2003
36703 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:28 am to
Well,how did it work % wise before the BCS ?

You think Penn State thought it worked in 1994 ? Notre Dame in 1993 ? There were 'splits' in '97,'91,and '90.

If people think a playoff is needed,fine. But the BCS works much,much better than before.
Posted by jmath23lsu
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
811 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:31 am to
Alot of what you're saying is based on the outcome of the Championship game itself, which is a terrible way to judge it. Just because Ohio State got blown out by Florida and LSU doesn't mean they shouldn't have been there. Also, by that reasoning, CU shouldn't have been in the Championship game instead of Nebraska, because they got beat in their bowl game.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
77313 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:34 am to
I hate this argument, if OU beat LSU in 2003 nobody questions them being there, why didn't they belong? They lost just as many games as USC and played at least as tough of a schedule.
Posted by Port City
Baton Rouge/Shreveport
Member since Jan 2007
3668 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:36 am to
The BCS makes some mistakes but it's better than the alternative.
Posted by Port City
Baton Rouge/Shreveport
Member since Jan 2007
3668 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:38 am to
quote:

I hate this argument, if OU beat LSU in 2003 nobody questions them being there, why didn't they belong?


They didn't win their conference and their loss came by 4 TDs.

Not sayin, just sayin.
Posted by Tiger Phil
I see burnt orange everywhere
Member since Nov 2007
1585 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:39 am to
I think you are unclear on what the BCS is supposed to do. It exists only to select the best two teams out of a myriad field of competitors. As such, it does its job rather well. To wit:

1998 - Tenn and FSU played. K-State was 3 and OSU, who you said was left out, did not even win the Big11Ten. Tennessee and FSU were the best two teams.
1999 - FSU and VT. Best two teams, period
2000 - OU and FSU. Everyone likes to say that Miami was shafted, but they lost to Washington, who was #4 in the final BCS. Here it was a hard choice, and this would have been a perfect year for a 4-team playoff.
2001 - Miami and Nebraka. Agreed. Nebraska should not have been in. It should have been Oregon.
2002 - Miami and OSU. Two best teams
2003 - LSU and OU. Agreed. OU, again, as a team that didn't win its conference, should not have been in.
2004 - USC and OU. The BCS had to make a determination to pick 2 out of 3 undefeated teams, and based on the information and data we had, it made the right choice. Auburn played absolutely no one OOC that year.
2005 - USC and Texas. Again, two best teams,
2006 - OSU and UF. They clearly got this one right as well. Pretty sure USC had 2 losses this season.
2007 - OSU and LSU. LSU was the clear choice among 2-loss teams. Georgia did not win their conference, and USC's schedule did not measure up. Don't forget VT had two losses, but one was to LSU.
2008 - OU and UF. Texas did not get left out. They did not win their conference, and justly so. Althoug they beat Oklahoma, they lost to Texas Tech. Texas Tech had just as much claim to be playing in the Big XII CG as Texas. Get over it.

So although we would have liked to see MORE teams competing for a championship, in all but two cases, the BCS has selected the best TWO teams, based on the information presented and available at the time. The BCS works. It really does.
Posted by L5UT1ger
Member since Feb 2004
2597 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:49 am to
2000 - OU and FSU. Everyone likes to say that Miami was shafted, but they lost to Washington, who was #4 in the final BCS. Here it was a hard choice, and this would have been a perfect year for a 4-team playoff.
______________________________________

IIRC, Washington, FSU and UM were all one loss teams. FSU lost to UM, so UM complained about not getting in, but UM's only loss was to Washington. Washington's only loss that year was to a two loss Oregon team on the road.

My how Washington has fallen off quickly!
Posted by jmath23lsu
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
811 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:50 am to
Agreed. The biggest "problem" with the BCS is non-conference champions making the National Championship game. But currently that's not an official requirement of the BCS.
Posted by BabyTac
Austin, TX
Member since Jun 2008
12025 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:55 am to
College football has the best method hands down for determining the best team for that season. The entire body of work is taken into account and teams that sucked it up for parts of the season aren't given opportunities or hand outs at the end of the year. Basketball has it wrong. Yes, the NCAA tourney is exciting, but why should the 64th ranked team in the nation be given a shot at a team that worked it's butt off all year and is one of the best teams. Basically a tournament or playoff deminishies the regular season in my opinion. I would say at the end of the season the winner of the BCS national title game is usually the best team that year. I can't think of many instances where that could be wrong.
Posted by Tiger Phil
I see burnt orange everywhere
Member since Nov 2007
1585 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 8:56 am to
Totally with you. It's really puzzling to me that they have not made this a requirement.

In conclusion, the BCS has selected 22 teams to play for the national championship, and has gotten it right 91% of the time.

Now, if you'd like to argue that the BCS should do something different, I'd accept that. But 91% of the time, the BCS has done what it was designed to do correctly.
Posted by tigerinridgeland
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2006
7635 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:16 am to
Flawed way to analyze the BCS. Certainly it can be criticized, but it is certainly better than the system that gave the NC to BYU some years back when BYU's toughest opponent of the year was a 6-5 Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. The BCS is set up to put the no. 1 v. no. 2. It has done that. Are no. 1 and no. 2 selections always perfect (USC probably should have been in the game in 2003, for example and the system very nearly left LSU out)? No, but it is still significantly better over the old system.

A full scale playoff isn't going to happen. Why would the big boy conferences agree to it? It actually would cost most big conference teams a lot of revenue, despite protestations that a playoff would generate more revenue. It might do so, but teams that don't make the playoff will make less if they have to give up at least one home game per year, because the extra playoff revenue will be distributed by some formula to all of the Div. 1A football conferences, but you can bet that a team like LSU or Ohio State will get less money than from loss of revenue from a home game. I don't think extending the season (without cutting at least one game per year) is going to fly with the universities. Thus, there will be no serious support for anything more than a plus 1 or 4 game playoff that will not shorten the regular season.


Just because a team is undefeated (i.e., Utah or Hawaii in 2007), doesn't mean that the team deserves to be in the championship, or even in a 4 team playoff. Not a genuine basis for criticism on that point by itself.

2004- Yes Auburn was undefeated, but somebody gets left out. Maybe Auburn could have gotten in over OU, but I don't really think it had that compelling a case over OU. Utah has no argument at all.

2005- Of course they got it right. There is no serious argument otherwise. If LSU had been undefeated (and may well have been without Katrina), I still think that USC and Texas would have been right, but it would have been very painful, and I would have had my doubts that it was right to leave out LSU.

In 2006, can anybody argue with a straight face that USC deserved to be in the over Florida after USC played in a weaker conference and lost to a very mediocre UCLA in its last game of the regular season? (You left out a 1 loss Michigan). OSU was undefeated in a BCS conference. The BCS got it just right.

In 2007, the system worked just fine. UGA didn't win its conference championship, nor play in its conference championship game, and USC's losses were worse than LSU's and it played in a weaker conference. There was no really legitimate argument for either team over LSU in the BCS championship. OSU was a one-loss team in a BCS conference. It would have made no real sense to put a 2 loss team in a BCS conference in the game over a 1 loss BCS conference champion. Again the BCS got it right.

In 2008, so what that TX was left out? They lost to Oklahoma; they didn't play for a conference championship. USC lost to a weak team in a weak conference. What is the problem? The BCS got it right.

There will always be someone who gets left thinks they are deserving, so if you use that criteria, the BCS works vitually never. But that is not the criteria. A plus one game or a 4 game playoff might be workable, and probably could work. And then you will have the same arguments. Which of several one loss teams or an undefeated non-BCS team gets left out of the four teams competing for the NC? Again the BCS is not perfect, but a larger playoff will not fly for a variety of reasons - money (not the boon that some think to big schools that control the system), makes it too expensive for fans to go to games, devalues the regular season (which is now more like a 12 game playoff and puts a premium on winning your conference), etc.

I don't support a large scale playoff. It will devalue the regular season, devalue conference championships and conference play, making conference championships more like basketball and baseball ("who cares as long as you get into the playoffs"). It will ruin the bowl system, which, while it has it flaws, has a lot of charm and benefit. It will will change things for the worse about Div 1A college football that make it the best sport in America, all for that part of the American fan base and media that is more oriented toward professional, not college, sports. It won't actually improve anything that makes Div. 1A football so compelling.
This post was edited on 7/16/09 at 9:39 am
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
77313 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:25 am to
quote:

They didn't win their conference and their loss came by 4 TDs.

Not winning their conference is very flawed logic. That should have nothing to do with a team making it or not making it to the Championship. If LSU and Florida are playing in the SEC championship game, and LSU is 12-0 and Florida is 11-1 with a loss to LSU, then beats LSU in the SEC championship game, do you really think LSU (12-1) shouldn't get the shot at the title against FLorida over a 10-2 team like Ohio State?
Posted by TheDoc
doc is no more
Member since Dec 2005
99297 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:26 am to
quote:

there were at least two other teams with 2 losses (USC & GA)


USC lost to stanford, at home.

georgia didn't win their division.
Posted by tigerinridgeland
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2006
7635 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:36 am to
It all
quote:

Not winning their conference is very flawed logic. That should have nothing to do with a team making it or not making it to the Championship. If LSU and Florida are playing in the SEC championship game, and LSU is 12-0 and Florida is 11-1 with a loss to LSU, then beats LSU in the SEC championship game, do you really think LSU (12-1) shouldn't get the shot at the title against FLorida over a 10-2 team like Ohio State?


Most of the time, a team that doesn't win its conference shouldn't be in the BCS championship. In most scenarios, the regular season is a de facto playoff, and if you don't win your conference, you basically lose out. However, there are exceptions. For example, suppose that a 1-loss team like Texas (only loss to OU) doesn't make the conference championship, but the OU loses to a 2 loss Nebraska team, and suppose that TX is then ranked above OU (who will have either one or two losses), and further suppose that TX is only one of two teams that have no more than one loss. TX should get the bid over Nebraska or any other 2 loss conference champion. But that is very rare, and the system, as it now exists would allow this to happen.

So in most circumstances, teams that don't win their conference should not be in the NCC game; the rules should not prevent a non-conference champion from playing for the NC in all circumstances.

And in your hypo, with a one-loss conference game loser being given a rematch for a best 2 out of 3 for an NC, sorry no. Most fans (outside of Florida and LSU) would not want to see such a rematch. Remember the controversy over OSU v. Mich. in a potential rematch in 2006?
This post was edited on 7/16/09 at 9:45 am
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
77313 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:39 am to
Regardless, my original point was about Oklahoma being just as deserving as USC if not more that year. USC lost to a bad Cal team. Oklahoma lost to a good Kansas St. team.
Posted by mikedatyger
Orlandeaux, FL
Member since Jun 2005
4010 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Agreed. The biggest "problem" with the BCS is non-conference champions making the National Championship game. But currently that's not an official requirement of the BCS.


It doesn't always work.
In the BIG 12, the split was "designed" to have OU or TX on one side and Neb and Mizzou on the other. It just so happens OU and TX have been the best teams in the conference.It would have been nice to have a re-match of OU and TX. Even though TT beat TX, I just don't think they were better.

Same can be said for the SEC. There was a spurt when the East teams were much better than the West teams. Would have been better games seeing a UGA-TN rematch or UGA-UF rematch, than playing that crappy '02 Ark team (9-4) get blown out 30-3.

Conference championship games don't always settle it.
Posted by tigerinridgeland
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2006
7635 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:50 am to
I
quote:

Regardless, my original point was about Oklahoma being just as deserving as USC if not more that year. USC lost to a bad Cal team. Oklahoma lost to a good Kansas St. team.


I understand your point on that, and don't really disagree, except to point out that OU was absolutely slaughtered by a good team, whereas USC was on the road and lost in overtime. (Cal wasn't great, but wasn't that bad). (Ugh, defending USC ) If the OU loss had not been so ugly, the OU argument would have been more compelling, but it was really, really ugly and in the last game of the season. In general, however, I think a BCS conference champion should get the nod over a team that doesn't win its conference. In some views when you lose shouldn't matter, but a late season loss by a huge margin probably should matter. There shouldn't be a hard and fast rule requiring a team to be a conference champion to get a NC game bid, but it should be a strong preference.
Posted by mikedatyger
Orlandeaux, FL
Member since Jun 2005
4010 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 9:55 am to
quote:

whereas USC was on the road and lost in overtime. (Cal wasn't great, but wasn't that bad).


USC was ranked higher in the human polls and would have gone in the "old system." The original point of the BCS was to take out the human element and put in the 2 most deserving teams. Unfortunately for USC their SOS was weak. ND was bad, then ND loses to Hawaii, who loses to Idaho (or something like that). SOS

BCS got it right.
Posted by RLDSC FAN
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
51368 posts
Posted on 7/16/09 at 10:02 am to
quote:

2006 - USC and FL one loss, and OSU didn't look like it shouldn't been in it


wrong, SC had two losses that year that took us out. that year the controversy was FL over michigan which obviously was the right call.
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