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BigBoyTiger's proposed US Stimulus

Posted on 2/1/09 at 10:26 am
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 10:26 am
So this is what I've come up with and I thought I'd get some feedback before I forwarded on to my elected officials.

I'm a free-market Republican. I don't believe in government intervention, but this is a unique time.

We all know we are in a very, very bad recession right now. We know that a lot of the banks we trusted have poorly capitalized balance sheets and greedy management. So here is my plan for cleansing the banking system and getting the economy going up again. It is a four prong plan that probably would cost around $2 trillion...but it is exactly what we need.

1) One year tax holiday:
The first thing we have to do off the bat is declare a one-year tax holiday for 2009. This will inject a significant amount into each working American's paycheck and give people some discretionary income. Additionally, businesses would use the additional cash to shore up their balance sheets and hire new workers.

Now I know you're asking...but isn't this the same as the government spending $1.5 trillion? This is the truth. But I would counter with two points: 1) Tax cuts allocate resources much better than the government can. 2) The best gains in gross domestic product and the driver of economic growth are tax cuts, not government spending. It is just the truth. Look at the growth in the 80s, 90s and earlier this decade.

2) 20/50:
This is probably the most controversial part of my plan, but its something that needs to be done.

The government needs to set up a bad bank to buy the bad mortgage assets in all banks and cleanse these banks of the bad assets on their balance sheets so they can start lending again. So how do we do this? It is quite simple.

The government buys these assets for 20 cents on the dollar. But how would the government make money on this? Simple. It would slash the original value of these assets (whatever this value was at initiation) in half to 50 cents of its original value. This serves three purposes: 1) It will keep people in their houses. They own half the amount they originally did. 2) The government can recoup its investment and even make a significant money. 3) It completely cleanses these assets off the balance sheet.

Now I bet you're wondering...don't the people that you helped keep in their homes still have a crappy adjustable rate mortgage, don't they? Yes...but here's the beauty. Because they are no longer upside down on that mortgage (i.e. they owe more on their house than it is worth), they can refinance what they owe with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, saving a lot of money. The government gets refinanced out of the asset it owns and gets the different between the refinanced amount and its investment as profit.The 20/50 investment by the government is essentially a bridge loan that will be repaid very quickly.

Also, I'm sure you're wondering..but wouldn't the banks have to recognize the loss on the sale of these assets to the government, thereby killing its capital base. The simple fact is that most of these assets have already been written off to zero by the banks.

3) Infrastructure:

I would propose a limited infrastructure spending plan from about $100 billion to $250 billion for some of the things we really need repaired in this country: roads and bridges. Especially the bridges.

This is really a straightforward plan. Roads and bridges. Roads and bridges. We need it.

4) No Pork Please:

Finally, my plan eliminates some of the stupid proposals the President Obama has in his stimulus bill: 1) $150 Million for the Smithsonian...whaaaattt?, 2) The resodding of the National Mall. Why?, 3) Investment in new renewable energy (I'm in favor of this, but not to stimulate the economy)....and many other things in the current proposal.

The fact is that the current stimulus plan is very light on tax cuts and very heavy on pork. I don't know how well it would work.

I believe my plan is much clearer and would help almost everybody.

Just wanted to get your feedback...
Posted by Ziggy
Member since Oct 2007
21506 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 10:32 am to
Cliffnotes?
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 10:35 am to
1) One-year tax holiday for all individuals and businesses
2) 20/50: Government buys bad mortgage assets off Bank's balance sheets at 20 cents of its original value and slashes half of the original principal for those borrowers.
3) $100-250 Billion in infrastructure spending
4) Get rid of the pork in the current bill.
This post was edited on 2/1/09 at 10:36 am
Posted by Gdoy
Shreveport
Member since Feb 2004
94 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 10:46 am to
BigBoyTiger for Senate!
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 11:05 am to
quote:

BigBoyTiger for Senate!


Thanks

What are your thoughts about my plan?
Posted by Tigris
Mexican Home
Member since Jul 2005
12344 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 11:10 am to
quote:

2) 20/50: Government buys bad mortgage assets off Bank's balance sheets at 20 cents of its original value and slashes half of the original principal for those borrowers


Will everybody who is currently paying their mortgages be allowed to default and reduce their note by 50%? If so then sign me up.
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 11:12 am to
quote:

Will everybody who is currently paying their mortgages be allowed to default and reduce their note by 50%? If so then sign me up.


There is definitely a moral hazard involved. But everybody would benefit by jumpstarting the economy and giving a jolt to the stock market.

I'm one of those people who has no debt at all..so I get pissed about this too. But ultimately, we have to do something to keep people in their homes and get things headed in the right direction.
Posted by Tigris
Mexican Home
Member since Jul 2005
12344 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 11:28 am to
I agree with that but the rate at which real estate has depreciated varies enormously across the country. A flat 50% may turn out to be not enough in California and way too much in North Dakota. "We have to do something" is a statement that few object to. The devil is always in the details and right now the details are enormously complicated. I certainly do not know the answer other than to try my best to protect my own arse right now.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 11:34 am to
quote:

The simple fact is that most of these assets have already been written off to zero by the banks.



This is simply the opposite of fact, and the entire point of part 2. How do you plan on getting banks to take such large haircuts on those assets, when they've demonstrated no desire to do so in the past?

The other stuff has too much room for political nonsense so I'll stay away from it.
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:09 pm to


quote:

How do you plan on getting banks to take such large haircuts on those assets, when they've demonstrated no desire to do so in the past?


I respectfully disagree. I work for one of these "problem banks" and I know for a fact that my bank has taken probably at least an 80% haircut on these assets.

As for the other propositions, I'm not sure how there could be political noise. A tax holiday from federal taxes is pretty simple and the best way to stimulate the economy.

What provision would be a part of your proposal?
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

I respectfully disagree. I work for one of these "problem banks" and I know for a fact that my bank has taken probably at least an 80% haircut on these assets.



If everything has been written down as your claiming, then wtf is the govt buying them for now?

I'm not trying to be an arse with this question, but do you work for "a" bank, or do you for "one of those problem banks," and what do you do for said bank?
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

If everything has been written down as your claiming, then wtf is the govt buying them for now?


Simple...to give the banks a fresh start and provide liquidity and shore up the capital base.

And, by the way, we are all seeing that the Tier 1 ratio as the yardstick for a bank's capital position is purely a joke.
Posted by Parliament
Member since Dec 2007
5787 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:23 pm to
1) Permanent tax cuts would do a LOT more good.

2) Fine, but any homeowner who takes a 50% writedown gets his/her credit rating permanently dropped to, say, 300. That will keep everybody fom jumping in.

3) I thought you said no pork?

4) I thought you wanted a bunch of infrastructure spending? You can't have it both ways.

The truth is, if we do 1 and 2, the recession will fix itself.
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

I'm not trying to be an arse with this question, but do you work for "a" bank, or do you for "one of those problem banks," and what do you do for said bank?


Oh..I work for one of the big three that's in trouble. I am in the commercial and industrial loan business (mostly middle market companies). Our portfolio is strong, but the bank I work for has written off like $100 B in assets since the fall of 2007.
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

The truth is, if we do 1 and 2, the recession will fix itself.


Thanks for the feedback. I see what you are saying to a large extent with No.3 and 4. I was just trying to inject funds into the construction industry. But good points.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421356 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:27 pm to
the no taxes just won't fly. it's not a horrible idea (considering how much we're about to spend), but it's just not ever going to happen.

the "toxic bank" ideas have been discussed on here a ton

however, i think upgrading our infrastructure is very important at this time and this is the time where doing it makes the most sense. people will need some sort of income, and we need this infrastructure....badly

it will cost a lot more to try and upgrade it in 10 years, so it just makes sense to do it now. we're going to have to eventually
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

the no taxes just won't fly. it's not a horrible idea (considering how much we're about to spend)


That's the whole point...you replace spending on this junk in the proposed stimulus bill with no tax collections.

And historical patterns show that tax cuts do a lot more to juice the economy than does government spending.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

Oh..I work for one of the big three that's in trouble. I am in the commercial and industrial loan business (mostly middle market companies). Our portfolio is strong, but the bank I work for has written off like $100 B in assets since the fall of 2007.




$100B constituting an 80% writedown on one of "the big three" being BAC/C/JPM? Are you serious? I can go look, but I'm almost 100% positive none of those institutions has issued $100B in writedowns in total, much less on impaired assets alone.

Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

$100B constituting an 80% writedown on one of "the big three" being BAC/C/JPM? Are you serious?


Yes..I am...probably more approaching $150B. But I am only talking about subprime assets...chiefly Alt-A mortgages and some ARMs. I am not talking about home equity loans, commercial real estate loans or any other loans.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/1/09 at 2:18 pm to
Even at 150B, an 80% writedown (and conveniently excluding those other assets) would mean the total original value of those assets was 187B prior to the inital writedown.

Just using BAC as an example, since I don't know which bank you work for, they had well in excess of that number LINK as of Q3 2007. 150B writedown would barely approach a 30% writedown of those assets.

Ignoring FV changes on the AFS/Trading portfolio because any number of factors that could affect it (its actually gone up), the loan loss reserves recorded for 2008 as of Q3 were a paltry 20.2B [LINK]
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