Games to Watch - Week 6

Midway through the 2003 season, I started running weekly predictions on the polls, with a great deal of success. I've continued that every season since, and have put out a weekly "Games To Watch" list for a number of my friends.

It looks like lsumatt has the poll side of it down (great job, dude), but I would like to contribute my games to watch list each week. These are not predictions, but a list of games that could potentially help LSU's cause. Based on the number of folks that I heard tailgating last week who were ecstatic about Ole Miss beating Florida, it may be needed.

This week's list will be pretty obvious. there are a number of SEC East vs West games, as well as some opportunities for ranked teams to stumble. As the season progresses and we get down to a handful of teams with a shot at the title, the games selected will have a greater focus on SOS and other factors that could vault LSU into the National Title game (if needed). The list usually includes 15-20 games (15 for this week). Here they are:

1.) Kentucky over Bama - SEC East vs. West matchup. While it would be great for Bama to be highly ranked when we play, it’s more important for them to have a SEC loss or two. The first step to a National Championship is winnng the West. To minimize the SOS hit (LSU plays Bama, but not UK), it would be best if the game were close.

2.) Vandy over Auburn - Stranger things have happened. I don’t see this one going LSU’s way, but Game Day will be there and Vandy will be amped up. A Vandy win would essentially make it a two horse race for the West. And talk about conference strength! If Vandy wins 6 games, we could have a realistic shot at 9 out of the 12 SEC teams (75%) being bowl eligible.

3.) South Carolina over Ole Miss - Another East / West matchup. Ole Miss is better than most people think, as Florida found last week. Even when they aren’t that good, they play LSU tough. Because LSU plays both teams, SOS hit will be negligible. Again, a close game benefits the Tigers.


4.) Florida over Arkansas - The East vs West thing isn’t really as much of a factor with this game. Although Arkansas only has one conference loss, I don’t believe that they will be much of a threat in the West. With this game, we want two things: a.) Florida moves back into the Top 10 and b.) They have to fight for it. The more Florida gets banged around this week, the better it is for LSU next week.

5.) Nebraska over Mizzou - I was tempted to put the Oklahoma game here, but I think that Nebraska has a better shot at the upset AND Mizzou is neck and neck in the polls with LSU. You don’t have to be #1 to go to the BCSCG, and a Mizzou loss would help in the battle for the 2 spot.

6.) Baylor over Oklahoma - A loss to Baylor would do to Oklahoma what the Oregon State loss did to USC. Oklahoma also has the next best shot (after Penn State and not counting BYU) of going undefeated. They will be in this list every week until they lose.

7.) Purdue over Penn State - Penn State probably has the best shot at going undefeated, and the human polls would likely put an undefeated Penn State in ahead of a one-loss LSU. Again, like the Sooners, Penn State will be on this list until they lose.

8.) Colorado over Texas - Drops another Big 12 school from the ranks of the undefeated. Clears room for Florida to move up before next week.

9.) K State over Texas Tech - Ditto from the Texas game. Also provides a slight, indirect SOS boost due to common opponent (North Tejas).

10.) Pitt over South Florida - Drops an undefeated top 10 team from contention. South Florida would be completely out of the mix.

11.) Texas A&M over Oklahoma State - Same as above, except this clears the way for Kentucky to crack the top 25 while dropping a Big 12 team out of the rankings.

* NOTE * If Kentucky beats Bama and Vandy beats Auburn, it is likely that the SEC will have SEVEN teams in the top 25.

12.) Tulane over Army - Boosts LSU’s SOS. As the season progresses these games will mean even more. Not only does Tulane have a direct impact on LSu’s SOS, there’s an indirect SOS impact due to common opponenets (Bama).

13.) Oregon over USC -– Not only would this kill any hopes for USC to play for the BCS, they would also be in serious jeopardy of losing the Pac 10.

14.) Wisconsin over Ohio State - Big 10 equivalent of the USC - Oregon game. Ohio Sate would probably be out of the running for the Big 10 title. This would also be a significant hit to USC’s SOS.

15.) Tennessee over Northern Illinois – ALWAYS pull for SEC vs. OOC. These are huge in regards to bowl eligibility and conference rank.