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Disturbance 58 Advisory 14
Issued: Thursday, October 3rd 2013 2:46am CDT
Current Location: 21.9N, 86.6W
Geographic Reference: 40 miles north of Cancun, Mexico
Movement: NNW near 10 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
Organizational trend: Slowly increasing
Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 95 percent
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the chance of development from 80 percent to 95 percent based upon increased organization as well as the latest model data.
Disturbance 58 has become better organized during the past 6 hours. However, the latest satellite and surface data does not conclusively indicate that the system has a closed surface circulation. Therefore, it remains a disturbance. The latest satellite data did indicate winds as high as 45 mph in the Yucatan Channel. Once a circulation does form, the disturbance will almost certainly be upgraded to a tropical storm. We have again increased the chance of development, now to 95 percent. Our thinking is that the system will strike the northern Gulf Coast as a moderate to strong tropical storm, with winds between 50 and 65 mph. However, we cannot rule out that the system will become a hurricane. We estimate the chance that the system will become a hurricane to be 30 percent.
There has been no significant change to the track forecast. We still forecast the system to pass just east of the mouth of the Mississippi River early Saturday. Final landfall should occur in Mississippi, Alabama, or the western Florida Panhandle late Saturday or early Sunday.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Northeast Yucatan: The heaviest rains remain to the east of the Yucatan, over the Yucatan Channel. However, accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible today. No major flooding is likely.
Northern Gulf Coast:
Rain : Squalls associated with the disturbance could reach the area by late Friday. The heaviest squalls are likely late Saturday and early Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 10 inches, will be possible over a small area near and to the east of where the center moves inland. Localized flooding is possible.
Wind : Sustained winds in the 50 to 65 mph range are possible within about 50 miles east of where the center moves onshore late Saturday or early Sunday. Isolated gusts to hurricane force are possible.
Surge: A tidal surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible near and within 50 miles east of where the center makes landfall.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls are likely to reach the deepwater lease areas offshore of Mississippi late today. Tomorrow and Saturday, wind gusts to hurricane force will be possible within the squalls. The strongest winds will likely occur within 50 miles to the east of the center.
The next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT.
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Jeremy Mazon
This post was edited on 10/3 at 7:44 am