- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
When odds don't work
Posted on 11/8/15 at 11:47 am
Posted on 11/8/15 at 11:47 am
'The Patriots have won 19 of their last 25 coin tosses. This has caught the nation’s attention."
"Obviously because this is the Patriots, a simple explanation like “that is the potential nature of a 50-50 probability” just doesn’t cut it. That’s because, according to CBS Sports, the probability of winning it at least 19 out of 25 times is 0.0073 — less than three-quarters of one percent!"
'Splain that, genuisus!!
LINK
"Obviously because this is the Patriots, a simple explanation like “that is the potential nature of a 50-50 probability” just doesn’t cut it. That’s because, according to CBS Sports, the probability of winning it at least 19 out of 25 times is 0.0073 — less than three-quarters of one percent!"
'Splain that, genuisus!!
LINK
12
Posted on 11/8/15 at 11:49 am to beejon
Inflation is the only answer.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 11:53 am to beejon
El Niño
Posted on 11/8/15 at 11:56 am to beejon
The Patriots filmed the refs practicing the coin toss and then deflated the quarter.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 12:04 pm to beejon
It's not 50/50 unless you make the same call on every flip.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 12:05 pm to beejon
Do you even Law of Large Numbers, bro?
Posted on 11/8/15 at 12:13 pm to beejon
quote:
the probability of winning it at least 19 out of 25 times is 0.0073 — less than three-quarters of one percent!"
'Splain that, genuisus!!
0.0073 is greater than 0. What do I win?
Posted on 11/8/15 at 12:19 pm to Peazey
quote:
The Patriots have won 19 of their last 25 coin tosses
It's most likely 19 out of 26 or more fwiw.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 12:20 pm to beejon
Aliens
Posted on 11/8/15 at 3:13 pm to GeeOH
It's always 50/50. The coin doesn't know what you called the last time. It's just like people thinking a roulette wheel has a better chance of hitting red because it hit black the last 10 times.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 3:28 pm to TigerMikey
What's the chance that a roulette wheel hits black 11 times in a row?
This post was edited on 11/8/15 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 11/8/15 at 3:28 pm to beejon
quote:
probability of winning it at least 19 out of 25 times is 0.0073
So you're saying there's a chance. I guess it's explained.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 3:29 pm to beejon
3/4 of 1% isn't that small. Look at all the teams' coin flips and you'll find a team or 2 who has a streak of losing almost the same. It balances out.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 3:35 pm to TulaneUVA
quote:
What's the chance that a roulette wheel hits black 11 times in a row?
Irrelevant. The roulette wheel has no memory of what it did on the past 10 spins.
If you're going to use past spins, you would look at which quarter of the roulette ends up with the ball. If the ball lands disproportionately on one quarter of the wheel, that might be a sign that it's unbalanced and needs to be recalibrated.
But previous spins are meaningless as far as red/black is concerned.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 4:03 pm to TulaneUVA
quote:
What's the chance that a roulette wheel hits black 11 times in a row?
About 50/50 if it's already hit 10 in a row.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 4:19 pm to beejon
quote:
the probability of winning it at least 19 out of 25 times is 0.0073...
'Splain that, genuisus!!
Assuming a fair coin, for x = 19 through 25, sum(combin(25,x) / 2^25). Can anyone do it without iteration?
Posted on 11/8/15 at 5:12 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
Coingate
Posted on 11/8/15 at 6:19 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Just answer the question. What are the chances a roulette wheel hits 11 blacks in a row.
Posted on 11/8/15 at 6:27 pm to TulaneUVA
0.048828125%
On the margin though, like in his example, the odds of the next roll being black is 50%.
On the margin though, like in his example, the odds of the next roll being black is 50%.
This post was edited on 11/8/15 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 11/8/15 at 6:28 pm to TulaneUVA
How many times do we get to try it? Because the more times you get to try it the higher the probability that it will happen. If we get to try it until it happens, then 100%.
Page 1 of 2
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News