re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Models have not budged on this going to Florida, looking much better for Louisiana, as always still gotta keep an eye on it since it is close to us and tropical systems can behave wildly.

What's making it make that turn towards FLA? I see it will be tracking on a Westward pace, then turning north, then hooking towards FLA?....

So far most of the models etc have been WRONG..but this is also due to this system not being to organized...are they thinking it gets it's shite together and finally starts to move like a Storm? Or they are just guessing and will probably be wrong?

I have seen plenty of storms in the past "suppose to take that hook" but never do and under making a LA landfall...I could also see this storm continuing on its West pace then turn into a WNW pace and make a TX/LA landfall...just depends how strong it gets in the gulf..

In the latest radar loop on the first page, doesn't it kind of look like the center of this thing is now sitting directly over Cuba?

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Off topic, but can anyone answer why my Hurricane Katrina "certain death; catastrophic damage warning thread got removed? 99% of the responses were positive and no one seemed upset that I posted it.

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Really?!? I didn't see anything wrong with that. Isn't the anniversary of landfall today?

(no message)

While it brought back personal painful memories, as I lost everything in Katrina, that was a major reason I evacuated. I'm thankful for that memo and thanks for sharing it

If you really want to know, take the question to the help board.

On another note, I think it's worth mentioning that the models (some) really haven't missed by much with the track estimates thus far, but the intensity guidance has been a mess. Most models suggested a southeastern GOM entry through the Florida straits.

NHC 4AM CDT discussion. Excuse the format.

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The satellite presentation of the depression is quite ragged this
morning, with little deep convection over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico or Straits of Florida. The thunderstorm activity that was
located to the east and southeast of the center yesterday afternoon
and evening, has propagated southwestward and is now located over
Cuba and the extreme northern Caribbean Sea, well south of the
center due to moderate to strong northerly shear. Data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been very helpful in locating the
low-level center overnight, and wind reports from the aircraft
indicate that the depression still has winds of 25 to 30 kt.

The intensity forecast for the depression remains of lower
confidence than normal. The strong northerly upper-level winds
currently over the system are forecast to decrease today, and the
depression should be in a more conducive upper-level environment
for a day or two. However, the global models indicate that dry
mid-level air will remain near and to the northwest of the system,
and that, combined with the current poor organization of the
depression, suggests that any intensification should be slow to
occur during the next day or so. After 48 hours, the upper-level
winds should turn southwestward and become more diffluent over the
system due to a mid- to upper-level trough that will be digging
southward over the eastern United States. This could result in a
little more favorable environment, and the NHC forecast calls for
gradual intensification between 72 and 120 hours. The NHC forecast
remains on the conservative side, and is between the more aggressive
statistical guidance and the global models, which do not
significantly deepen the system until it moves into the western
Atlantic.

The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is moving generally
westward at about 8 kt. The tropical cyclone should move westward
to west-northwestward today to the south of a low- to mid-level
ridge. The depression should turn northwestward and then northward
around the western portion of the ridge on Tuesday. After that
time, the aforementioned digging trough should begin to steer
the cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed. Most of the
track guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there
are some differences on how fast the system will move northeastward
toward the Florida peninsula. The update NHC track is close to a
consensus of the global models, and is not very different than the
previous NHC advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 23.5N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 23.7N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 24.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 25.4N 87.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.8N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 30.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 33.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

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Basically......