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NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year
Posted by tke857 on 5/25/17 at 10:43 am15
May 25, 2017 Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.
For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
"As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. "These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government."
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.
“NOAA’s broad range of expertise and resources support the nation with strong science and service before, during and after each storm to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy as we continue building a Weather-Ready Nation,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “From our expert modelers to our dedicated forecasters and brave crews of our hurricane hunters, we’ll be here to warn the nation every step of the way this hurricane season.”
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This post was edited on 5/25 at 10:45 am
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by TheCaterpillar on 5/25/17 at 10:45 am to tke857
Well, shite.
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by Riseupfromtherubble on 5/25/17 at 10:46 am to tke857
They say this every year. Eventually we're going to get buttfricked by a large hurricane. Nature.
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by Jack Bauer7 on 5/25/17 at 10:49 am to teke184
not going to worry about this til we have an lsu home game, that's when louisiana seems to get blasted
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re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by ForeverLSU02 on 5/25/17 at 10:49 am to upgrayedd
quote:Colorado State said a few weeks ago that it would be a below average hurricane season. The Weather Channel said last week that it would be above average. NOAA is now in agreement with TWC
Didn't they say it was going to be below average like 6 weeks ago?
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by Walking the Earth on 5/25/17 at 10:50 am to tke857
I'm almost going to be happy for them when they finally nail it.
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by tke857 on 5/25/17 at 10:50 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Colorado State said a few weeks ago that it would be a below average hurricane season. The Weather Channel said last week that it would be above average. NOAA is now in agreement with TWC
why the frick does Colorado st do hurricane forecasts? whens the last time they got hit by a hurricane?
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by LSUvegasbombed on 5/25/17 at 10:50 am to ForeverLSU02
Hurricane Lee will be a cat 5 hitting NOLA
book it
book it
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by upgrayedd on 5/25/17 at 10:50 am to ForeverLSU02
I though CSU was the golden standard
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by arseinclarse on 5/25/17 at 10:53 am to tke857
I'll be ready
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by Jim Rockford on 5/25/17 at 10:56 am to tke857
quote:
Lee
re: NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this yearPosted by CarRamrod on 5/25/17 at 10:57 am to LSUvegasbombed
quote:i was thinking Irma. a sit name like katrina.
Hurricane Lee will be a cat 5 hitting NOLA
book it
quote:
NOAA: Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year
I think they might just be playing the odds. At this point, they might as well stay "above-normal" forever on the off-chance it's right for once.
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