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Posted on 7/25/16 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
The Gulf is set to break the all time "hurricane free" streak this weekend. Records go back to the 1800's and the Gulf is currently at 1,043 days without a hurricane, the record is 1,047.
The 12z GFS doesn't see anything in the Gulf for at least the next 10+ days:
The 12z GFS doesn't see anything in the Gulf for at least the next 10+ days:
Posted on 7/25/16 at 1:26 pm to bodean45
quote:
Can you explain what ACE is in layman's terms? TIA
quote:
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the wind energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six-hour period. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season. In recorded history, the highest ACE worldwide is 82, for Hurricane Ioke, in 2006.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 8:15 am to LSURussian
96L kicks off the Cape Verde season, conditions don't look very favorable at this time.
This post was edited on 8/4/16 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 7/28/16 at 1:13 pm to rds dc
NHC has activated 97L, see image in post above. Conditions still don't look overly favorable but there might be a window for development as waves move closer to the SE later on.
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 7/28/16 at 1:29 pm to rds dc
Just reading up on this and you mean to tell me there were storms named Frank, Estelle and George(tte) at the same time in the Pacific?
Posted on 7/28/16 at 2:03 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/28/16 at 2:04 pm to Wtodd
quote:Hey man, that's not nice.
Please hit Washington DC without warning....please, please!!!!
Posted on 7/28/16 at 2:08 pm to rds dc
Why do I have the feeling you hope a hurricane hits somewhere?
Posted on 7/29/16 at 2:07 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
I dont care how early it is or how low the chances are that's a scary track
Of the two, 97L (the first wave) is the one that may eventually need a dedicated thread. The models are in pretty good agreement that it will either pass over the islands or through the John Hope Box and neither of those tracks are conducive to development.
The models are also pinching off a ULL out in front of the system. The movement and strength of that will help determine what kind of shear 97L has to deal with. In the longer range, models are in pretty good agreement that this will make it to the Gulf and possibly less hostile conditions. Still a long ways off and a lot of uncertainty as shown by the 12z GEFS. The image below shows a wide spread of possible solutions by next weekend
Posted on 7/29/16 at 2:12 pm to rds dc
Blas and Nepartak? Are we now naming storms after sci-fi characters?
Posted on 7/29/16 at 2:13 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/4/16 at 10:37 pm to LSUEnvy
Earl goes on to be Javier in the EPAC:
The Atlantic looks pretty slow for the next 10 days to 2 weeks with the exception of the northern Gulf where Fiona might spin up:
The Gulf record for hurricane free days has reached 1,053 with no end in sight. Then there is the Florida hurricane drought going on as well right now.
The Atlantic looks pretty slow for the next 10 days to 2 weeks with the exception of the northern Gulf where Fiona might spin up:
The Gulf record for hurricane free days has reached 1,053 with no end in sight. Then there is the Florida hurricane drought going on as well right now.
quote:
“Hurricanes are going to hit the U.S. again and people are going to be shocked by the magnitude of the disaster,” said Roger Pielke Jr., professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Posted on 8/5/16 at 9:34 am to rds dc
Next week looks like a bad week at the beach. Complicated setup might produce a TS but for sure will produce widespread heavy rain.
Posted on 8/5/16 at 9:45 am to LSURussian
quote:
Why do I have the feeling you hope a hurricane hits somewhere
Don't know about him, but on some other weather boards there is a great deal of wishcasting. They get bored and state "season canceled" when there is no action.
Posted on 8/5/16 at 9:45 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
where is that system coming from?
Posted on 8/5/16 at 11:18 am to Theboot32
quote:
where is that system coming from?
It would be a homebrew type system that would probably have to undergo tropical transition. There is an upper trough and weak surface boundary over the SE and an ULL moving in from the Atlantic. It appears that the upper trough and ULL phase to form an ULL over Florida. While a surface low forms near the Gulf.
Complicated setup and models will probably jump around a lot. Even a 100 miles in position change of the surface low could be the difference between a weak TS or nothing. At this point, it probably won't spend enough time out over the Gulf to become fully tropical but too early to tell. Either way, possible flooding issues somewhere between Baton Rouge and Tampa.
Posted on 8/5/16 at 10:18 pm to rds dc
The NCEP Cyclogenesis Multi Model Ensemble has started shifting westward and is a bit more in line with the Euro EPS:
Another trend over the last 24 hrs has been for more members to track off to the SW and then NW towards Louisiana. The GEFS below is similar to the 12z Euro EPS showing some tracks towards Louisiana:
The NHC has bumped chances of develop up to 30% over the next 5 days. The models typically struggle with these setups with lots of false alarms and they could struggle even more this go round because of Omais:
As the massive Omais moves into the high latitudes it looks to excite the jet stream over the Pacific and that could cause a trough to dig down into North America. The placement and timing of this trough could be what some of the model runs are seeing that pulls any future system back to the NW.
Another trend over the last 24 hrs has been for more members to track off to the SW and then NW towards Louisiana. The GEFS below is similar to the 12z Euro EPS showing some tracks towards Louisiana:
The NHC has bumped chances of develop up to 30% over the next 5 days. The models typically struggle with these setups with lots of false alarms and they could struggle even more this go round because of Omais:
As the massive Omais moves into the high latitudes it looks to excite the jet stream over the Pacific and that could cause a trough to dig down into North America. The placement and timing of this trough could be what some of the model runs are seeing that pulls any future system back to the NW.
Posted on 8/5/16 at 10:27 pm to rds dc
Remember when Al Gore made a movie with the satellite image of Hurricane Katrina as the movie poster? 
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