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Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/18/16 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 8/18/16 at 9:54 pm
Current Storm(s):
This post was edited on 10/13/16 at 10:03 am
14
Posted on 8/18/16 at 9:56 pm to rds dc
Gaston supposed to be a cat three when it hits Puerto Rico
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:42 am to rds dc
99L continues the westward trek across the MDR
At this time, there doesn't appear to be much support for the model solutions that show it becoming a strong hurricane as it moves towards the US. There are a number of reasons to not buy these solutions at this time, including the MJO. The current MJO forecast is pretty unfavorable for the Atlantic.
Phase 6 & 7 are among the least favorable phases for the Atlantic. This is just one metric but I would still be skeptical of any model hype out there showing a major hurricane.
At this time, there doesn't appear to be much support for the model solutions that show it becoming a strong hurricane as it moves towards the US. There are a number of reasons to not buy these solutions at this time, including the MJO. The current MJO forecast is pretty unfavorable for the Atlantic.
Phase 6 & 7 are among the least favorable phases for the Atlantic. This is just one metric but I would still be skeptical of any model hype out there showing a major hurricane.
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:45 am to rds dc
Anytime I read these posts I always do it in my head in that robot voice from that weather channel (but not The Weather Channel) on TV.
Posted on 8/19/16 at 8:15 am to rds dc
Other reasons to remain skeptical of any individual model runs showing a US threat, until the system forms the models always struggle with future track and the models get even less accurate as you move out in time.
Posted on 8/19/16 at 8:17 am to rds dc
whats the deal with 99L. Looks like some potential there and that track looks all too familiar 
Posted on 8/19/16 at 8:45 am to rds dc
Correct me if I'm wrong, but your first graphic does not show Fiona? Are there 3 storms in the Atlantic?
This post was edited on 8/19/16 at 8:48 am
Posted on 8/19/16 at 8:48 am to ForeverLSU02
Can someone tell me what peej isn't predicting?
Posted on 8/19/16 at 9:07 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but your first graphic does not show Fiona? Are there 3 storms in the Atlantic?
I'll flip the order of the graphics. Currently, the first one shows areas of potential development. The second shows current storms. So, 1 current system and 2 areas that are being monitored.
Posted on 8/19/16 at 9:22 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/20/16 at 8:39 am to ForeverLSU02
99L:
This post was edited on 8/20/16 at 8:39 am
Posted on 8/20/16 at 8:47 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/20/16 at 8:49 am to GEAUXmedic
Motherfrick
Posted on 8/20/16 at 8:50 am to GEAUXmedic
way too far out to take that model run seriously
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:30 am to LSU1NSEC
quote:
way too far out to take that model run seriously
Oh definitely. But isn't hat what this thread is for? Fantasy land models.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:32 am to GEAUXmedic
If that fricking model ultimately proves true, I am the frick out of this cursed state.
This post was edited on 8/20/16 at 9:35 am
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:36 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
Your graphic reminded me of Andrew in 1992.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:40 am to udtiger
I noticed at the 2am run a majority of the models shifted south and west. But they won't know anything till a recon flight
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:45 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Oh definitely. But isn't hat what this thread is for? Fantasy land models.
Good point. Been watching models last few days and seems like they've been trending to Fl/GA/SC - East coast/Bahamas type storm. Hopefully it doesn't get in GOM.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 9:52 am to LSU1NSEC
Models were predicting a Cat 5 (pressure at 907 mb) off the Florida cost yesterday. At least the strength projections have gone down
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