Hurricane Season - August - Potential Tropical Cyclone #9

Thanks, a major Storm is now on the way, Jinks!

The season so far is above avg for names but below avg for ACE but that doesn't mean much. Almost all major hurricanes form after Aug 1 when climo suggest that conditions become more favorable for development. The SAL (dusty air coming off of Africa) starts to die down and shear starts to relax across the basin and that combo is less hostile towards storms forming.

quote:

---

Good, leaving on a cruise out of NOLA in less than two weeks. It would suck to have a storm in the gulf.

---

Punta Cana?

Let's hope we aren't revisiting this post like an old Trump tweet.

Above avg for names because they jump the gun and name something that lasts less than 24hrs or is a fish. Gotta get their predictions right.

NHC is going with 60% for 99L but it is still way out by Africa.






Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


Of more interest is the potential for a system to spin up in the Gulf middle of next week (this would be unrelated to 99L).



Above image via @MJVentrice

I'm gonna throw a curve ball into the typical OT response.

I'll be in the keys next week, will this screw my trip up?

90L is on the board now, this is a potential Gulf threat (yellow shaded area)

quote:

---

Gonna be interesting watching the storm out by Africa. 

---

Probably going out to sea