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Crisis in the music industry foreshadows the coming manufacturing crisis

Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:37 pm
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98071 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:37 pm
that 3D printing will cause. LINK

TL;DR, French guy in 1976 wrote a book that predicted exactly what would happen to the music business model with the proliferation of free music. Now he says 3D printers will have the same effect on traditional manufacturing. Very interesting article if you're into futurism, as several are on the OT.
Posted by musick
the internet
Member since Dec 2008
26125 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:39 pm to
3D printed materials will never replace raw materials. It isn't the same thing at all.

Music was the the same thing (just music, the music itself wasnt replaced), but the delivery system changed.

Printing out plastic beams to try to build a building is not the same as steel beams. it never will be.
This post was edited on 9/17/15 at 12:40 pm
Posted by applejacked
USA
Member since Mar 2015
326 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:41 pm to
free trade caused a manufacturing crisis in this country starting over 20 years ago. It can get a little worse but can't cause a crisis since we already have one. Maybe 3D printing can hamper the child slavery in China and Mexico.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50336 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

Now he says 3D printers will have the same effect on traditional manufacturing.


Its called CNC machines. They have already replaced "traditional" manufacturing to a degree.
Posted by TheDrunkenTigah
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
17302 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:44 pm to
CNC is already pretty common in industry. You still have to have people willing to learn to program the machines and companies who will market that. Instead of the part now they will just sell the plans.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98071 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:44 pm to
They're already 3D printing metal parts, and it's getting cheaper LINK
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
259567 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:46 pm to
Gubment and industry will find a way to keep the average guy from benefiting too much from this technology.
Posted by Tigeralum2008
Yankees Fan
Member since Apr 2012
17124 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:52 pm to
I definitely agree 3D printing has the potential to disrupt manufacturing but not in the way you describe.

Private parties will at some point be able to download drawings and print proprietary items such as guns, art, and other small materials. But this will not be able to disrupt major manufacturers in the same manner as free music.

3D printing only prints parts of a complex product but it will not assemble it in final form. I doubt we will see a 3D printed TV or a 100% 3D printed car. Plus printer material costs will always be higher than outright purchasing the product.

3D printing will disrupt manufacturing by revolutionizing the supply chain model. What if Ford could 3D print brake pads cheaper than purchasing them from a supplier? How about headlights? Could a major manufacturer use economies of scale to push printing costs down enough to bankrupt those suppliers?

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84582 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

musick


Considering hoe you turned a blind eye to the digital revolution in music, perhaps you're not exactly qualified to comment on the coming manufacturing revolution...

Posted by Murray
Member since Aug 2008
14412 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Private parties will at some point be able to download drawings and print proprietary items such as guns, art, and other small materials. But this will not be able to disrupt major manufacturers in the same manner as free music.

3D printing only prints parts of a complex product but it will not assemble it in final form. I doubt we will see a 3D printed TV or a 100% 3D printed car. Plus printer material costs will always be higher than outright purchasing the product.

3D printing will disrupt manufacturing by revolutionizing the supply chain model. What if Ford could 3D print brake pads cheaper than purchasing them from a supplier? How about headlights? Could a major manufacturer use economies of scale to push printing costs down enough to bankrupt those suppliers?






I'm surprised we got this far before anyone made this point. This 3D printer doomsday prediction is old hat and easily debunked.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
56190 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

Printing out plastic beams to try to build a building is not the same as steel beams. it never will be.
Then it's a good thing they can print using a variety of materials, including all kinds of metals.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89453 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Printing out plastic beams to try to build a building is not the same as steel beams. it never will be.


What about all the shite that is bought and sold in our economy that IS made out of plastic?
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
56190 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

Private parties will at some point be able to download drawings and print proprietary items such as guns, art, and other small materials
Printers can create objects of widely-varying size and with many different materials. All printers aren't the plastic crap producing machines you see on YouTube.
quote:

3D printing only prints parts of a complex product but it will not assemble it in final form.
Who gives a shite? No machine assembles a thing in its final form.

What 3D does is make it possible to create 25 different components with one machine instead of 25 different machines. And with the laser scanners, they can copy anything. The technology can go from concept to production in ONE DAY. I'd call that disruptive.

GE, GM, Seimens, etc. have all said that 3D is where everything is going, and they're preparing for it.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
56190 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Instead of the part now they will just sell the plans.
That's exactly right.
Posted by Geauxld Finger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
31657 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:33 pm to
Unless you have access to a wealth of raw material I'm afraid you are shite out of luck
Posted by Breesus
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
66982 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:36 pm to
The ability to print toothbrushes, Tupperware, bottles, cups, plates, coasters, etc.. will be pretty awesome.
Posted by Tigeralum2008
Yankees Fan
Member since Apr 2012
17124 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

Who gives a shite? No machine assembles a thing in its final form.


I give a shite. My point was that 3D printing at home will not be able to compete with commercial manufacturing. The OP's article discusses how individuals downloading free music brought the entire music industry to its knees and raises the alarms that 3d printing can do the same for manufacturing.

I understand 3D machines use more than just plastic. Read my previous remarks and while you may disagree with my points, you can probably infer that I am somewhat "up to speed" on the capabilities of 3D printers
Posted by redbaron
Member since Aug 2011
706 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

Printing out plastic beams to try to build a building is not the same as steel beams. it never will be.


Regardless of material, laying out a bunch of metal particles and then sintering them together will not be the same as hot/cold rolling steel. The mechanical properties will be vastly different (inferior), and I'm not sure how much can be made up by subsequent heat treating.

Now, things like jewelry, coins, that don't really need great mechanical properties? Whole different story.
Posted by captainahab
Highway Trio8
Member since Dec 2014
1598 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 1:49 pm to
I think you will see a significant impact on larger, non-complex, items. For example, Home Depot will not stock toilets or sinks, they will build them locally on-demand.

On items that need assembly (i.e. ceiling fans, chains saws, lawnmowers - sticking with the Home Depot analogy), you won't see an impact in my life time.

Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
56190 posts
Posted on 9/17/15 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

My point was that 3D printing at home will not be able to compete with commercial manufacturing
Home printers can make a lot of the small, crappy things people use every day. In that sense, the author is correct.

As far as heavy industry is concerned, as I said, one machine takes the place of many, and doesn't require replacement or refitting. That will put a lot of people out on the street.
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