re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

In Lafayette. Gated neighborhood near Lafayette General

ETA: I'm in no hurry. In a rent house now

Well the flood already happened so the odds now are whatever they are of a strike near BR.

The astronomical odds would have applied to a random 3 weeks.

Yeah there's only one gated neighborhood in that area

I got lost driving around there a few months ago, if it's near where I'm thinking. There's one off the little road behind LG that is still under construction that I like.

Sorry, my bad. It's yellowfin's fault. Get mad at him!

Back to the storm. What's it gonna be named if it turns into a hurricane/depression?

Some convection starting to fire with the naked swirl this evening.




It may have been mentioned, the 12z Euro EPS mean is west of the op and the op is on the eastern side of the spread. Most members are on the weak side.

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naked swirl

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My brother-in-law just texted me this when I asked him about the storm:

"Starting to look like a weak florida storm or nothing at all. Models are starting to come together in breaking down high pressure to its north, and so are sending it up the west coast of florida as a tropical depression. Some models have it just fall apart, which is also looking increasingly likely."

Probably the smartest person I know, and he also falls under the autism spectrum. He's been looking at this at this system for the last week before this thread was even started.

I will post more updates when I can. But in all seriousness, I personally value his input over any professional meteorologist.

Just wanted to relieve some anxiety for myself and others by posting this.

And to give him some OT street cred, he got a 35 on his M-Cat and decided to go into research and not apply for medical school. Just sayin.

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tigerbandpiccolo

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The rain will only be A factor if it does develop into a TRUE storm AND makes its way real slow and then just sit here and pour on us for a day or so.. IMO. IF this thing becomes some kind of storm it will move quickly across whatever area it hits... So take that for what its worth.. The biggest problem with this area is WIND... A 70-80 MHP wind can throw ALL the trash by the roads all over the place AND uproot trees on already soggy ground... Which will mean MANY power outages for a good while....

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Considering the juju Louisiana has had all year.. I'll take those odds. It's seeming like another Katrina/Rita kind of year. A real bitch.

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See? That's thinking. I really didn't consider this.

NW La had a 100 year Red River flood due to historic rains in Texas/Oklahoma in August '15.

Then NW La had a 100 year flood in March that led to a 100 year flood in SW La.

Then, BR has a 1000 year flood.

Perhaps we are screwed.

Louisana. Is where all of the water goes be it the entire MR basin and even Texas or Oklahoma.