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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:02 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:02 am to Roll Tide Ravens
TABM
GET YOUR shite TOGETHER
GET YOUR shite TOGETHER
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:03 am to Jim Rockford
quote:euro ensembles are still split between a western (hou-msy) solution and a big bend solution.
how far west? I assume La is still in play.
but with the euro and the gfs both leaning towards a big bend path, it's definitely a good sign for louisiana.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 7:04 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:03 am to lsuman25
The Euro isn't part of the spaghetti model suite, I don't believe.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:04 am to lsuman25
The not so good thing about a hurricane crossing Florida for Gulf Coast interests, is that South Florida is about 2 feet above sea level and flatter than a pancake.
Nothing like some of the Caribbean island's mountains that can break up tropical systems.
Nothing like some of the Caribbean island's mountains that can break up tropical systems.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:05 am to BRgetthenet
Dawn Browns tits are pushing this thing to miami
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:12 am to dukke v
06 HWRF has a major hurricane in the central gulf early next week
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:25 am to lsuman25
quote:
early next week
Any idea what days it could make landfall??
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:27 am to TheArrogantCorndog
Looking like Wednesday
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:29 am to lsuman25
99L is still a sheared mess this morning and it appears that none of the models are handling things very well at this point. Recon is flying but nothing too impressive so far. 99L got pretty tangled up with Hispaniola overnight and now the island is disrupting the low level inflow and the system is ingesting the down slope winds. This is a bad situation for Hispaniola and there is likely going to be significant flooding/mudslides.
Current Recon:
NHC is still at 50/80% for development:
It appears that the this thing is currently on the southern side of the guidance spread this morning. That would maybe have the 06z HWRF handling things best this morning? Either way, still not much change from yesterday with a lot of spread in the models and a lot of uncertainty about the future track.
06z HWRF (probably doing HWRF things again)
00z Euro EPS spread (one interesting thing, there doesn't appear to be any intensity bias - meaning that a system that tracks farther east/west would stronger or weaker. That is sometimes pretty evident in the ensemble members)
Current Recon:
NHC is still at 50/80% for development:
It appears that the this thing is currently on the southern side of the guidance spread this morning. That would maybe have the 06z HWRF handling things best this morning? Either way, still not much change from yesterday with a lot of spread in the models and a lot of uncertainty about the future track.
06z HWRF (probably doing HWRF things again)
00z Euro EPS spread (one interesting thing, there doesn't appear to be any intensity bias - meaning that a system that tracks farther east/west would stronger or weaker. That is sometimes pretty evident in the ensemble members)
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:38 am to rds dc
Well , I'm no meteorologist, so correct me if I'm wrong, but this scenario is no Bueno.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 7:42 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:42 am to LakeViewLSU
This thing looks like a mess.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:47 am to Cosmo
quote:
Dawn Browns tits are pushing this thing to miami
Photographic evidence needed.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:48 am to TigerDude80
The northern part of the system is under very strong shear. It's possible by late this afternoon it should be in a lower shear environment. It should start showing signs of organization at that point.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:59 am to Mudminnow
Haven't paid much attention to this thing until now. We shitting our pants and hurricane prepping yet or no? Need to know so I can buy a genny and some supplies.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:59 am to dualed
Im evacuating this weekend
eta: eff that, im evacuating tonight
eta: eff that, im evacuating tonight
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:00 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:08 am to dualed
quote:
We shitting our pants and hurricane prepping yet or no?
For some the poop started to make its way down earlier in the week. After the last 24-36 hours of model runs, the poop has stalled.
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