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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:02 am to
Posted by Placebeaux
Bobby Fischer Fan Club President
Member since Jun 2008
51852 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:02 am to
TABM

GET YOUR shite TOGETHER
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:03 am to
quote:


how far west? I assume La is still in play.
euro ensembles are still split between a western (hou-msy) solution and a big bend solution.

but with the euro and the gfs both leaning towards a big bend path, it's definitely a good sign for louisiana.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 7:04 am
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42104 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:03 am to
The Euro isn't part of the spaghetti model suite, I don't believe.
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
117677 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:04 am to
I'm Don Aimes.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62717 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:04 am to
The not so good thing about a hurricane crossing Florida for Gulf Coast interests, is that South Florida is about 2 feet above sea level and flatter than a pancake.
Nothing like some of the Caribbean island's mountains that can break up tropical systems.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120154 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:05 am to
Dawn Browns tits are pushing this thing to miami
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
75130 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:08 am to
Hispaniola
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
202580 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:11 am to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41461 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:12 am to
06 HWRF has a major hurricane in the central gulf early next week
Posted by TheArrogantCorndog
Highland Rd
Member since Sep 2009
14814 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:25 am to
quote:

early next week


Any idea what days it could make landfall??
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
10666 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:27 am to
Looking like Wednesday
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19803 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:29 am to
99L is still a sheared mess this morning and it appears that none of the models are handling things very well at this point. Recon is flying but nothing too impressive so far. 99L got pretty tangled up with Hispaniola overnight and now the island is disrupting the low level inflow and the system is ingesting the down slope winds. This is a bad situation for Hispaniola and there is likely going to be significant flooding/mudslides.

Current Recon:



NHC is still at 50/80% for development:



It appears that the this thing is currently on the southern side of the guidance spread this morning. That would maybe have the 06z HWRF handling things best this morning? Either way, still not much change from yesterday with a lot of spread in the models and a lot of uncertainty about the future track.

06z HWRF (probably doing HWRF things again)



00z Euro EPS spread (one interesting thing, there doesn't appear to be any intensity bias - meaning that a system that tracks farther east/west would stronger or weaker. That is sometimes pretty evident in the ensemble members)

Posted by LakeViewLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2009
17730 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:38 am to



Well , I'm no meteorologist, so correct me if I'm wrong, but this scenario is no Bueno.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 7:42 am
Posted by TheArrogantCorndog
Highland Rd
Member since Sep 2009
14814 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:41 am to
Thanks
Posted by TigerDude80
METRY
Member since Nov 2007
1732 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:42 am to


This thing looks like a mess.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
70801 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:47 am to
quote:

Dawn Browns tits are pushing this thing to miami


Photographic evidence needed.
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34144 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:48 am to
The northern part of the system is under very strong shear. It's possible by late this afternoon it should be in a lower shear environment. It should start showing signs of organization at that point.
Posted by dualed
Member since Sep 2010
4689 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:59 am to
Haven't paid much attention to this thing until now. We shitting our pants and hurricane prepping yet or no? Need to know so I can buy a genny and some supplies.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:59 am to
Im evacuating this weekend

eta: eff that, im evacuating tonight
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:00 am
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6138 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:08 am to
quote:

We shitting our pants and hurricane prepping yet or no?


For some the poop started to make its way down earlier in the week. After the last 24-36 hours of model runs, the poop has stalled.
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