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Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:44 pm to LSUvegasbombed
Not necessarily. It's a single run. I remain skeptical of this new path until we get several runs with it showing that.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:44 pm to rds dc
Is there any way to put a time frame together from the euro model?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:45 pm to BigB0882
quote:
That is shocking to see a hurricane being pushed slightly south of west by a ridge and then suddenly going due north so quickly. I don't see the ridge going away that fast. Just no way.
It all hinges on the feature near Texas. It appears to have enough sustained convection to break down the western edge of the ridge, allowing 99L to turn north. One other thing, it appears the Euro develops the feature along the tail end of a boundary. The Euro has shown a bias over the past couple of season of being too aggressive with developing features from that kind of setup.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:46 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
Already seeing the social media Mets writing off this euro run. This is why people get pissed. It's like people want it to go to a certain area and cheer it on when their chosen model agrees, but when it doesn't, they discount it.
Agreed.
FWIW, most recent run:
12 hours ago:
24 hours ago:
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:46 pm to rds dc
It's precisely why I laugh at people that hold on so tight to a specific model. Yeah the GFS has been bad, but the euro now gets pretty close to what it's been doing for a few runs. Now the euro is garbage according to some. 
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:47 pm to Tigerdew
quote:
It's barely even a tropical wave right now. It's just a mess of clouds with little certainty that it will ever form into anything.
I was talking about in the future, per the model. It begins to strengthen into a hurricane after is passes south FL and is moving due W or slightly S of W and then suddenly hauls arse N. I am well aware this is not a hurricane.
For the record, I don't see anyone saying the EURO is garbage. I am afraid it is back to doing what it loves to do which is break down ridges too quickly beyond 3-4 days.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:48 pm to AU24
looks to hit around Wednesday in the Tallahassee area
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:49 pm to slackster
quote:
Agreed.
FWIW, most recent run:
They wanted to be sure to get all jimmies on the gulf coast rustled.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:51 pm to rds dc
Got a question for you will the late afternoon models have the aircraft data or the early morning runs?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:52 pm to tke857
quote:
looks to hit around Wednesday in the Tallahassee area
Yes, tell all the guys heading to the La. Home Depot's for supplies to turn around.
Seriously, we are way too early in the process to be worried about this thing. For 99.9% of us there is plenty of time to react if it does indeed become a problem for La.
Sure, buy your regular supplies that you buy every season at this time, but right now I'd hold on and wait to see what's going on before I did something extraordinary.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:52 pm to BigB0882
quote:
For the record, I don't see anyone saying the EURO is garbage. I am afraid it is back to doing what it loves to do which is break down ridges too quickly beyond 3-4 days.
I'm on my phone so I can't link it well, but I count 6 so far on Twitter bashing this euro run hard.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:53 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
I'm on my phone so I can't link it well, but I count 6 so far on Twitter bashing this euro run hard.
It was King euro 6 hours ago, now it's trash.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:54 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
I'm on my phone so I can't link it well, but I count 6 so far on Twitter bashing this euro run hard.
I think I found the problem
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:54 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
I'm on my phone so I can't link it well, but I count 6 so far on Twitter bashing this euro run hard.
I assumed they were talking about what was being said on here. Not on the entire internet.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:54 pm to tke857
Still not a time to panic, but I wouldn't get into "coast is clear" mode yet either. Katrina was a hurricane and they missed badly on it's track when it was a few days ahead of where invest is now
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:55 pm to doubleb
quote:
tell all the guys heading to the La. Home Depot's for supplies to turn around.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:55 pm to rds dc
One thing is for certain - the Weather Channel people, especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now. They've been waiting all summer for this.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:56 pm to doubleb
Like rdsdc said it is still early to know for sure where 99l will ultimately end up. Today's set of runs are encouraging but they could just shift back west so still have a lot of time to watch. It is noteworthy that the GFS has been consistent with not going crazy with developing 99l, and with todays runs of it being weaker who knows maybe the GFS will be right. Heck 99l still might not even develop at all lets hope it doesn't.
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