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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:54 pm to CFDoc
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:54 pm to CFDoc
quote:
Link me your models that prove otherwise.
There is a whole set of peer reviewed literature on this topic. So why don't you link the peer reviewed papers that support your statement and prove the uselessness of NWP.
2
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:03 pm to CFDoc
I am not all into the weather like you guys, but what does it look like this thing will do? I noticed the weather we are getting in South Louisiana is coming from the East and moving West. Is there a chance its weather spitting out from 99L?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:04 pm to OweO
I don't think so Chris. 99L is way to far south. These are just typical summer storms for south Louisiana.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:05 pm to OweO
quote:
I noticed the weather we are getting in South Louisiana is coming from the East and moving West. Is there a chance its weather spitting out from 99L?
Completely separate system that formed off the coast of La
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:05 pm to Duke
quote:
shite is goin' down.
I need to see hand written calculations showing exact solutions to these PDE's being discussed before I make any judgements. Fourier series/transforms solutions is only acceptable as n->infinity, and no implicit/explicit interpolations/methodology.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:14 pm to NYNolaguy1
Here's our last visible satellite image of her for the day before it gets too dark. I had to enhance it quite a bit to even get it to this level, but there's still something kinda beautiful, yet scary about it. It seems to be forming quite a bit from this image.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:16 pm to dukke v
quote:
I don't think so Chris. 99L is way to far south. These are just typical summer storms for south Louisiana.
Thanks. Yesterday I saw there was a 60% chance of rain today then the next few days the chance of rain was much lower so I didn't know if we should expect more rain than what is forecasted.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:29 pm to baytiger
Hey Baytiger in my business we rely heavily on the weather (physical natural gas trading) to make decisions and I want to study the weather and gain a more than basic understanding of how the atmosphere operates. Can you recomend any books to get me started?
If any other OT meterologist have suggestions I would appreciate it.
Thanks!
If any other OT meterologist have suggestions I would appreciate it.
Thanks!
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:32 pm to rds dc
quote:
So why don't you link the peer reviewed papers that support your statement and prove the uselessness of NWP
Just so I don't come across as a complete troll to you since you obviously have a good bit of personal interest in NWP, I will try to clarify my stance on NWP a bit more eloquently than a carpet adjective such as useless. My predictability, usefulness, etc. comment was directed towards the highly stochastic nature of even early time evolution of a storm. Thus the dubious comment at studying models that are gross approximations and thousands of miles apart in a mere several days.
Also, instead of referring you to the literature, I can just quote your own comments in this thread alone that show even you can take a pragmatic view on NWP modeling.
quote:
Pretty common in the early stages of development, the high amount of uncertainty has been highlighted by the ensembles.
quote:
This would end up being a huge bust for the Euro. Now, the GFS has never been one to handle success and it will probably throw up a Cat 5 next run just to make sure no one actually starts taking it serous
quote:
The Euro doesn't use vortex relocation and just rolls with the initial fields and data assimilation. The GFS will relocate the vortex before data assimilation based on the NHC position but I'm not sure that they do that for invest. The HWRF uses a different process but will use a bogus vortex from the GFS if the HWRF is initialized with a weaker vortex than reality.
quote:
No, nothing that will be accurate. However, if you ignore 99L then most of Louisiana looks drier than normal over the 7 days (yellow and tan areas are below normal for rainfall). Obviously, that is subject to change if 99L does something.
quote:
Hard to say, all models struggle with storm formation (cyclogenesis).
Clearly, you are aware are the severe deficiencies associated with NWP modeling. And you know as well as I that the NWP modeling literature is not going to take food out of their own mouths.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:33 pm to Bob Sacamano
Not sure about books but this LINK was shared way back in the thread.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:33 pm to Bob Sacamano
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
Thanks guys!
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:40 pm to Bob Sacamano
quote:
gain a more than basic understanding of how the atmosphere operates
I'm sure the folks in this thread will be able to point you in very good directions.
I would only add that, for me, the weather 'light bulb' went off for me once I got a good grasp of basic thermodynamics. More specifically how pressure, temperature, humidity, dew points, liquid/gas phase migrations, etc. all worked and were connected to each other.
This is what really made things like the jet stream, low/high pressure zones, wet/dry air all make physical sense.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:42 pm to dukke v
quote:
I don't think so Chris. 99L is way to far south. These are just typical summer storms for south Louisiana.
Where do you think this thing is headed based on the models?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:43 pm to CFDoc
CFDoc
This is the kind of stuff I want to learn. I want to get a deeper understanding.
Eta: without going back to school
This is the kind of stuff I want to learn. I want to get a deeper understanding.
Eta: without going back to school
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 7:45 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:45 pm to Placebeaux
The google earth wind map that was posted a few pages back shows a lot more circulation at all levels with the latest update.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:53 pm to Costanza
quote:
The google earth wind map that was posted a few pages back shows a lot more circulation at all levels with the latest update.
You can look at the GFS model on there with all the atmo layers in motion. Click on "Earth" and a menu comes up. Select atmo level you want (850, 700 mb, etc) and then select time. Think it goes out 5 days.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 7:58 pm to LSU1NSEC
This thing could go from Houston, TX to Durham, NC
Posted on 8/27/16 at 8:21 pm to Placebeaux
quote:
Where do you think this thing is headed based on the models?
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