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Message
2015 Season-Long Hurricane Thread - Watching Invest 96L
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:21 pm
***Not quite sure what's going on with my links. They're showing up in preview but not in the actual post. My pics and gifs show up everywhere else when I post so I'm not sure what's different with this post. Sorry!***
Watching Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic. There's a 70% chance of development and one of the leading models used by the NHC indicates a substantial hurricane headed toward the Caribbean in about a week.
There's some dry air in that area now and the forecast is calling for it to subside a little by the time the storm gets there so that could aid in development. If it gets into the Caribbean, the GOM needs to watch it very closely.
2015 Hurricane Season Forecast
Activity is forecast to be about 20% below the 1950-2014 average and about 30% below the 2005-2014 average. This means the following numbers are the official forecast:
Tropical Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 6
Major Hurricanes - 2
Storm Names
Anna
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
The 65-year climate norm is 11 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 3 intense Hurricanes.
Notable storms that have affected Louisiana in recent memory:
1. Andrew (1992) - Shredded SELA with wind damage, power outages for 2 weeks
2. Allison (2001) - Flooded SELA with 30+ inches of rain
3. Lili (2002) - Cat 4 weakened to Cat 2 just before landfall. SELA, being on the east side of the eye, dodged a huge bullet
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts
5. Rita (2005) - Lots of rain, some wind
6. Gustav (2008) - BR shredded by wind & power outages for 2 weeks
7. Ike (2008) - A little wind, some rain
8. Isaac (2012) - TONS of rain, some outages, 60 mph wind
Suggested Preparedness Supplies List
1. Drinking Water - one gallon/person/day in plastic containers.
2. Additional drinking water to mix baby formula with if you have infants
3. Extra containers of water to use for flushing toilets, cleaning, bathing, etc..
4. 3-7 days of food for each family member
5. Canned meats, fruits, vegitables
6. High energy foods such as crackers, granola bars, trail mix.
7. Bread
8. Vitamins
9. Prescription medication (two weeks' supply)
10. Paper cups, plates, and plastic utensils
11. Non-electric can opener
12. Lots of ICE
13. Hand sanitizer
14. Personal hygiene items
15. Plastic garbage bags
16. First Aid Kit
17. Guns and ammo (in the event of power outages and alarm systems no longer work)
18. Duct tape
19. Saw
20. Ax
21. BBQ grill
22. Sun screen
23. Batteries
24. Radio
25. Flashlights
26. Portable a/c unit
27. Rake/shovel
Baby Needs
1. Special foods
2. Formula (enough for several days)
3. Medicines
4. Blakets
5. Diaper rash ointment
6. Baby whipes
7. Powder
8. Bottles
9. Pacifier
10. Favorite toy/blanket
11. Medicine dropper
Watching Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic. There's a 70% chance of development and one of the leading models used by the NHC indicates a substantial hurricane headed toward the Caribbean in about a week.
There's some dry air in that area now and the forecast is calling for it to subside a little by the time the storm gets there so that could aid in development. If it gets into the Caribbean, the GOM needs to watch it very closely.
2015 Hurricane Season Forecast
Activity is forecast to be about 20% below the 1950-2014 average and about 30% below the 2005-2014 average. This means the following numbers are the official forecast:
Tropical Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 6
Major Hurricanes - 2
Storm Names
Anna
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
The 65-year climate norm is 11 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 3 intense Hurricanes.
Notable storms that have affected Louisiana in recent memory:
1. Andrew (1992) - Shredded SELA with wind damage, power outages for 2 weeks
2. Allison (2001) - Flooded SELA with 30+ inches of rain
3. Lili (2002) - Cat 4 weakened to Cat 2 just before landfall. SELA, being on the east side of the eye, dodged a huge bullet
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts
5. Rita (2005) - Lots of rain, some wind
6. Gustav (2008) - BR shredded by wind & power outages for 2 weeks
7. Ike (2008) - A little wind, some rain
8. Isaac (2012) - TONS of rain, some outages, 60 mph wind
Suggested Preparedness Supplies List
1. Drinking Water - one gallon/person/day in plastic containers.
2. Additional drinking water to mix baby formula with if you have infants
3. Extra containers of water to use for flushing toilets, cleaning, bathing, etc..
4. 3-7 days of food for each family member
5. Canned meats, fruits, vegitables
6. High energy foods such as crackers, granola bars, trail mix.
7. Bread
8. Vitamins
9. Prescription medication (two weeks' supply)
10. Paper cups, plates, and plastic utensils
11. Non-electric can opener
12. Lots of ICE
13. Hand sanitizer
14. Personal hygiene items
15. Plastic garbage bags
16. First Aid Kit
17. Guns and ammo (in the event of power outages and alarm systems no longer work)
18. Duct tape
19. Saw
20. Ax
21. BBQ grill
22. Sun screen
23. Batteries
24. Radio
25. Flashlights
26. Portable a/c unit
27. Rake/shovel
Baby Needs
1. Special foods
2. Formula (enough for several days)
3. Medicines
4. Blakets
5. Diaper rash ointment
6. Baby whipes
7. Powder
8. Bottles
9. Pacifier
10. Favorite toy/blanket
11. Medicine dropper
This post was edited on 8/17/15 at 10:58 am
35
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:22 pm to TDsngumbo
It's the first week of March.
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:22 pm to TDsngumbo
A tad soon? Still got three months until the season starts. 
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:23 pm to TDsngumbo
You left off alcohol on your suggested preparedness lest 
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:25 pm to upgrayedd
Being a hurricane fanatic, it's never too early to start thinking about hurricane season.
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:26 pm to TDsngumbo
Geaumedic is going to crack your skull open and eat your brains for lunch, baw.
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:28 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Geaumedic is going to crack your skull open and eat your brains for lunch, baw.
Medic and I are cool. I respect his contribution to our hurricane threads and he tolerates me
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:29 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Anna
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
no spanish name?
Obama losing control
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:31 pm to ksayetiger
The winter storms get all the cool names.
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:32 pm to ksayetiger
quote:
Obama losing control
Nah, we get:
quote:- spelled with a "k"
Erika
quote:- show me one white woman named "Ida"
Ida
quote:- Joaquin
Joaquin
quote:- could go either way but I think of a fat African American of the female species when I think "Wanda"
Wanda
Obama's got dis.
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:32 pm to TDsngumbo
in
Posted on 3/6/15 at 12:52 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
- show me one white woman named "Ida"
My Grandmother's first name was Ida. Of course, her mother's name was Lenabell, and she had a sister named Ora. Of course, she died 5 years ago at the age of 94.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:36 pm to TDsngumbo
Pam will be the first monster storm of the season out in the Pacific
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:48 pm to Horsemeat
quote:
A tad soon? Still got three months until the season starts.
Typhoons are wrecking shite in Australia as we speak, mate.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:49 pm to Jim Rockford
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
This thread
This thread
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:50 pm to TDsngumbo
way too soon
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:51 pm to rds dc
If people thought the last two seasons were slow this one is going to be worse than both combined if you're looking for action. Everything right now is looking negative, again if you want a busy season. El nino was declared albeit weak, euro showing extremely high pressure in carribean and tropical Atlantic, and instability is way down below normal across the entire basin. Wouldn't be surprised one bit to see another season go by with no hurricane or even strong TS threats to the US.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:52 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Typhoons are wrecking shite in Australia as we speak, mate
The Pacific never sleeps, already a Cat 3 & 4 for Australia. Also, the Atlantic should be slow again this season.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:11 pm to lsu mike
quote:
If people thought the last two seasons were slow this one is going to be worse than both combined if you're looking for action. Everything right now is looking negative, again if you want a busy season. El nino was declared albeit weak, euro showing extremely high pressure in carribean and tropical Atlantic, and instability is way down below normal across the entire basin. Wouldn't be surprised one bit to see another season go by with no hurricane or even strong TS threats to the US.
It is pretty much a lock that we will see below normal ACE again this season. The number of named storms is really irrelevant but that seems to be what most people focus on. 2013 had 14 but only had an ace of 36 while a season like 67 only had 8 but an ACE of 122.
The NPM & PDO from the last two season look to roll strong again this season. Add to that the AMO and El Nino kind of showing up and things look pretty calm. However, a season like '92 always sticks in the back of my mind and gives me heartburn.
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:15 pm to rds dc
Even in a slow season, it only takes one to ruin your day. Being upstate, Hurricane season was never anything but a mild curiosity, until I started dating my current SO. She was emotionally traumatized by Katrina, and is on edge the whole summer and fall. I always pull for a below average season for her sake.
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