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What is one thing that we do not have in common with recently successful teams?
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:01 pm
Volume of draft picks.
(Fairly long post, sorry in advance)
I took a look at teams that have made the playoffs at least 3 times following our Superbowl season. Next to the team is the number of picks they have had since the 2010 draft, their conference championship (CC) and Superbowl appearances (SB), as well as the number of picks per year starting with the most recent draft... The results are fairly telling.
Teams with at least 3 playoff appearances AND reached a conference championship (CC) since 2010:
Seattle – 48 (2 CC 2 SB) 9-11-10-9-9
San Francisco – 48 (3 CC 1 SB) 12-11-7-10-8
Green Bay – 45 (2 CC 1 SB) 9-11-10-8-7
New England – 44 (4 CC 2 SB) 9-7-7-9-12
Pittsburgh – 44 (1 CC 1 SB) 9-9-9-7-10
Baltimore – 42 (2 CC 1 SB) 9-10-8-8-7
Denver – 38 (1 CC 1 SB) 6-7-7-9-9
Atlanta – 36 (1 CC, Insert SB joke here) 9-8-6-6-7
Indianapolis – 35 (1 CC 0 SB) 5-7-10-5-8
New Orleans – 28 (0 CC 0 SB) 6-5-5-6-6
The Giants reached and won a SB during that span with only 36 picks, and the Bengals are the only other team with 3 playoff appearances with 45, but they have never made it out of the first round.
Moreover, the Broncos are the ONLY team that has reached the SB during this span and had a draft class of less than 7 players (last year, they had 6). The Saints on the other hand have not had a draft class of more than 6 players since 2007. Clearly we have made some moves and traded picks for players etc. but it's hard to ignore these stats.
Obviously this can be taken with a grain of salt as there are other teams out there with numerous picks, but the correlation cannot be ignored.
Some people have been complaining about how cutting veteran leaders on defense has hurt us. It can easily be argued that it has. Others realize that this is a business and that in order to have continued success like perennial powerhouses such as the Pats making such moves and using young talent to fill the void is necessary. Regardless of your stance, one common denominator with the teams that have had major success since our last Superbowl appearance has been the VOLUME of draft picks.
The great teams have been able to have young players step in and fill the void possibly because they are getting the most out of taking larger quantities of (arguably) more talented players via the draft rather than seeking out UDFA gems or signing veteran free agents. Obviously there are many situations that lead to teams acquiring/losing picks, but it is important to note that the great teams of late such as the Seahawks, Patriots, Packers, and even 49ers (minus this year) have gathered lots of picks through various methods. Whether by making trades of players who were desirable due to talent, or at the very least had contracts other teams were willing to take on, or gathering compensatory picks due to the fact that they can allow more players to move on and only sign a few prized veterans etc...
Our draft woes are especially magnified given the amount of misses we have had in the drafts, as is common with many teams, but it is clear how it could be hurting us.
Just food for thought...
(Fairly long post, sorry in advance)
I took a look at teams that have made the playoffs at least 3 times following our Superbowl season. Next to the team is the number of picks they have had since the 2010 draft, their conference championship (CC) and Superbowl appearances (SB), as well as the number of picks per year starting with the most recent draft... The results are fairly telling.
Teams with at least 3 playoff appearances AND reached a conference championship (CC) since 2010:
Seattle – 48 (2 CC 2 SB) 9-11-10-9-9
San Francisco – 48 (3 CC 1 SB) 12-11-7-10-8
Green Bay – 45 (2 CC 1 SB) 9-11-10-8-7
New England – 44 (4 CC 2 SB) 9-7-7-9-12
Pittsburgh – 44 (1 CC 1 SB) 9-9-9-7-10
Baltimore – 42 (2 CC 1 SB) 9-10-8-8-7
Denver – 38 (1 CC 1 SB) 6-7-7-9-9
Atlanta – 36 (1 CC, Insert SB joke here) 9-8-6-6-7
Indianapolis – 35 (1 CC 0 SB) 5-7-10-5-8
New Orleans – 28 (0 CC 0 SB) 6-5-5-6-6
The Giants reached and won a SB during that span with only 36 picks, and the Bengals are the only other team with 3 playoff appearances with 45, but they have never made it out of the first round.
Moreover, the Broncos are the ONLY team that has reached the SB during this span and had a draft class of less than 7 players (last year, they had 6). The Saints on the other hand have not had a draft class of more than 6 players since 2007. Clearly we have made some moves and traded picks for players etc. but it's hard to ignore these stats.
Obviously this can be taken with a grain of salt as there are other teams out there with numerous picks, but the correlation cannot be ignored.
Some people have been complaining about how cutting veteran leaders on defense has hurt us. It can easily be argued that it has. Others realize that this is a business and that in order to have continued success like perennial powerhouses such as the Pats making such moves and using young talent to fill the void is necessary. Regardless of your stance, one common denominator with the teams that have had major success since our last Superbowl appearance has been the VOLUME of draft picks.
The great teams have been able to have young players step in and fill the void possibly because they are getting the most out of taking larger quantities of (arguably) more talented players via the draft rather than seeking out UDFA gems or signing veteran free agents. Obviously there are many situations that lead to teams acquiring/losing picks, but it is important to note that the great teams of late such as the Seahawks, Patriots, Packers, and even 49ers (minus this year) have gathered lots of picks through various methods. Whether by making trades of players who were desirable due to talent, or at the very least had contracts other teams were willing to take on, or gathering compensatory picks due to the fact that they can allow more players to move on and only sign a few prized veterans etc...
Our draft woes are especially magnified given the amount of misses we have had in the drafts, as is common with many teams, but it is clear how it could be hurting us.
Just food for thought...
12
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:08 pm to Zoltan
Good stuff and definitely something the think about.
I know many on here have complained about the lack of picks. It makes the misses look worse.
We actually have a pretty damn good percent at drafting starters and contributors but we've just had such a low amount of picks.
I know many on here have complained about the lack of picks. It makes the misses look worse.
We actually have a pretty damn good percent at drafting starters and contributors but we've just had such a low amount of picks.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:10 pm to Zoltan
No shite
It's the draft plain and simple. You have to have guys that can plug in and play right away in the first 3 rounds. 4 if you take an offensive linemen in the 4th.
You can't consistently take project players in 2-7 round and expect to have quality players. We have reached on quite a few guys and it has bit us in the arse.
It's time to stop fricking around and draft some legit guys/ hopefully Jeff Ireland fixes all that
It's the draft plain and simple. You have to have guys that can plug in and play right away in the first 3 rounds. 4 if you take an offensive linemen in the 4th.
You can't consistently take project players in 2-7 round and expect to have quality players. We have reached on quite a few guys and it has bit us in the arse.
It's time to stop fricking around and draft some legit guys/ hopefully Jeff Ireland fixes all that
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:16 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
You can't consistently take project players in 2-7 round and expect to have quality players. We have reached on quite a few guys and it has bit us in the arse.
It's more than that. It's the fact that the draft is so uncertain, having more volume of picks is the safest way to remedy it. Even if the guy is labeled as an immediate starter, you aren't allowing yourself to remedy the situation if he is a flop. We need to find ways to acquire more picks whether by trading back, or signing players to contracts that teams are willing to take on.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:18 pm to Zoltan
I've been saying all year that if we can't get a top pass rusher or Brandon Scherff we should trade back
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:21 pm to WicKed WayZ
That's one option. Another is possibly rethinking the way we so frequently backload deals which prevents us from being able to ship players to other teams for picks when we are ready to part with them instead of outright releasing them.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:26 pm to Zoltan
Sorry had to post this somewhere....
quote:
@nick_underhill: I fell asleep last night watching ESPN2. Woke this morning to First Take. Couldn't immediately find the remote. Scariest 30 secs of my life
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:35 pm to Zoltan
But that's how we are about to afford them for so long. We normally don't cut guys until their last year (or sometimes two).
It also is how we are able to do big deals but then never have them see the big money unless they earn it, and even then we usually do a pay cut or extension to do it all over again.
I know people see these big numbers but the are all planned. It basically planned obsolescence.
You are correct that it prevents us from trading them at the end but that doesn't happen much anyway(not for good draft picks anyway). It isn't like we're trading a guy like Brees. What do you think Colston on a cheap contract would trade for?
It also is how we are able to do big deals but then never have them see the big money unless they earn it, and even then we usually do a pay cut or extension to do it all over again.
I know people see these big numbers but the are all planned. It basically planned obsolescence.
You are correct that it prevents us from trading them at the end but that doesn't happen much anyway(not for good draft picks anyway). It isn't like we're trading a guy like Brees. What do you think Colston on a cheap contract would trade for?
This post was edited on 3/9/15 at 7:37 pm
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:36 pm to Zoltan
without looking, id bet half arent even on the team anymore. Which is sad.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:39 pm to Lester Earl
What do you think the average retention rate after three years is around the league?
@meat
@meat
Posted on 3/9/15 at 7:43 pm to Zoltan
Interesting post 
Posted on 3/16/15 at 7:27 pm to John McClane
The Pats have been masters at trading down for more picks. SP seems to trade away one pick per year to move up. Losing a pick(s) to move up is not worth it. If a player was obviously so good, then teams before you would have already picked the player.
Prior to drafting a player it is difficult to know how hard a player will work to get better. If the player falls into your lap, then take them with your pick. If not, then pick the next one on the board.
I'd like to see the Saints trade down with their #13 pick and get a 1st and 2nd round pick for it. 2nd round picks typically have a lot of talent for a good value. Needs can be filled with value in the 2nd. This helps with salary cap too. The Saints need draft picks. Maybe this year they will resist trading up. We'll see.
Prior to drafting a player it is difficult to know how hard a player will work to get better. If the player falls into your lap, then take them with your pick. If not, then pick the next one on the board.
I'd like to see the Saints trade down with their #13 pick and get a 1st and 2nd round pick for it. 2nd round picks typically have a lot of talent for a good value. Needs can be filled with value in the 2nd. This helps with salary cap too. The Saints need draft picks. Maybe this year they will resist trading up. We'll see.
This post was edited on 3/16/15 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 3/17/15 at 8:59 am to Zoltan
quote:
Just food for thought...
This is Gourmet Food for thought.
You may have nailed it.
Posted on 3/17/15 at 9:05 am to Zoltan
quote:
It's more than that. It's the fact that the draft is so uncertain, having more volume of picks is the safest way to remedy it. Even if the guy is labeled as an immediate starter, you aren't allowing yourself to remedy the situation if he is a flop. We need to find ways to acquire more picks whether by trading back, or signing players to contracts that teams are willing to take on.
I think Bill B has learned this sooner than CSP.
We pay the big money. He moves them before hand and acquires more picks.
Well done Zoltan
Posted on 3/17/15 at 9:11 am to Zoltan
Sea and NE are consistently trading backwards and picking up picks for future drafts. This is the key. It's one thing to focus on many picks in one draft. It's something else to look ahead as well. They are masterful at the way they do this, so they are always sitting with a boon of picks each and every year.
We are in a great position to start doing the same. With all the picks we have, we need to start maneuvering around this draft to both pick up future picks and move to draft particular players now.
We are in a great position to start doing the same. With all the picks we have, we need to start maneuvering around this draft to both pick up future picks and move to draft particular players now.
Posted on 3/17/15 at 9:33 am to Zoltan
I've been saying for years they need to quit trading away picks every year but no one seemed to agree. Until now
It's always "well if you get the right player..."
It doesn't help that you lack picks and then whiff on 3/4 of the picks you do have
It's always "well if you get the right player..."
It doesn't help that you lack picks and then whiff on 3/4 of the picks you do have
Posted on 3/17/15 at 9:47 am to Zoltan
the draft is just a lottery. The more times you play, the better your chances at hitting it big. At the same time, cases can be made for moving up to grab an elite talent.
Elite scouting is needed to navigate the draft minefield.
Elite scouting is needed to navigate the draft minefield.
Posted on 3/17/15 at 9:47 am to Zoltan
DP
This post was edited on 3/17/15 at 9:48 am
Posted on 3/17/15 at 9:51 am to Zoltan
Upvote.
Posted on 3/17/15 at 4:22 pm to Zoltan
This post was edited on 3/17/15 at 4:34 pm
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