Tannehill just needs to have a decent to good game and their D can keep them alive till the end. This game will be pretty close. 50-50 shot to me.
I might agree with you if this were in Miami, but you have to know how much of an advantage the dome is for prime time games.
I'd say it's more around 80/20 maybe even 90/10 with them not having their best pass rusher, Wake. If this were in Miami I'd have it around 55/45 Saints.