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re: Teams to root for this week/weekend
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:29 am to misterdavamoto
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:29 am to misterdavamoto
1
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:31 am to NorthGwinnettTiger
I liked the Math.com link better. It was "less subtle".
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:41 am to misterdavamoto
quote:
The odds of you getting a wild card are exponentially higher than a 9-1 Falcons team tanking the season.
Math is admittedly not my strong suit, but i do know the definitions of the words I openly use.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:51 am to misterdavamoto
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:55 am to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
So cut your nose off to spite your face?
You really are stupid.
Because of how things are laid out, the Saints will most likely have to win out AND get some help in order to make the playoffs.
SO:
The goal is to win the division; if you don't, then and only then do you think about the wildcard. The way for that to happen is for the Saints to win out (again, which will likely be necessary to make the playoffs) AND for Atlanta to lose an additional 3 games.
In ANY scenario in which the Saints win out, they hold the tie breaker over Tampa by virtue of sweeping them, so their winning any additional games other than against the Saints is meaningless. Because Tampa's playing good football right now, they would be a good candidate to beat the Falcons.
Thus, you pull for Tampa to win if you want the Saints to have the best possible chance of making the playoffs. When and if Atlanta clinches the division, you start looking at Wild Card matchups.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:56 am to misterdavamoto
I provided you a link showing how you had a less than 1% mathematical chance to win the division, and a 10% chance of winning a wild card spot. And you're wanting to turn this into a discussion on verbiage. Sorry, but it's not going to happen. The fact of the matter is that a Bucs win does in fact hurt your chances of making the playoffs in the grand scheme of things, despite what you have convinced yourself.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:58 am to NorthGwinnettTiger
If Tampa wins this weekend, and if the Saints win next Thursday night, the Saints are two games back and would hold the tiebreaker over the Falcons.
THAT is why Saints fans should pull for a Tampa win.
THAT is why Saints fans should pull for a Tampa win.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:59 am to Sophandros
quote:
Because of how things are laid out, the Saints will most likely have to win out AND get some help in order to make the playoffs.
So the 11-5 Saints would need help to make the playoffs?
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:00 am to Sophandros
the problem is that you are being extremely narrow minded. you are looking at one possible way that it works out without giving any credit to the fact that there are other ways. we are looking at another, one that is easier and mathematically more realistic. your way is based on the Saints winning out. ours is based on the Saints losing one game.
either way, we need to the saints to win this weekend, and it will get more clear after this week what else we need to happen.
either way, we need to the saints to win this weekend, and it will get more clear after this week what else we need to happen.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:02 am to quail man
quote:
the problem is that you are being extremely narrow minded. you are looking at one possible way that it works out without giving any credit to the fact that there are other ways. we are looking at another, one that is easier and mathematically more realistic. your way is based on the Saints winning out. ours is based on the Saints losing one game.
Ding ding ding. The idea that a 5-5 team is gonna go 6-0, versus maybe it's more likely they go 4-2. And a 9-7 Saints team needs a whole helluva lot less parity in the league.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:08 am to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
So the 11-5 Saints would need help to make the playoffs?
Yes. Because Seattle is currently the #6 seed at 6-4. It's conceivable that there could be a 12-4 team at #6, so regardless the Saints would need help to get in at 11-5.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:08 am to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
The idea that a 5-5 team is gonna go 6-0
it's not even that. the saints are, what, 5-1 in their past 6. it's the fact that with the schedule ahead, the Saints have MAYBE 2 games that are likely wins. the rest are very tough. it's more likely that they lose 1, and that would all but mathematically eliminate them from the division.
i get where sophandros is coming from. i really do. but I just can't see it happening. so i'm pulling for the scenario that is MORE likely.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:09 am to Sophandros
quote:
Yes. Because Seattle is currently the #6 seed at 6-4. It's conceivable that there could be a 12-4 team at #6, so regardless the Saints would need help to get in at 11-5.
So a 5-5 team and a 6-4 team are gonna go 12-0 in your "scenario"? Got it.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:12 am to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
I provided you a link showing how you had a less than 1% mathematical chance to win the division, and a 10% chance of winning a wild card spot. And you're wanting to turn this into a discussion on verbiage. Sorry, but it's not going to happen. The fact of the matter is that a Bucs win does in fact hurt your chances of making the playoffs in the grand scheme of things, despite what you have convinced yourself
Actually, your link shows a 14% chance of the Saints making the playoffs today, and in context, (falcons vs bucs this week), calculate the odds following a Saints and Bucs win this weekend; your word usage is hyperbolic at best, but nonetheless incorrect.
I would agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:13 am to quail man
quote:
the problem is that you are being extremely narrow minded. you are looking at one possible way that it works out without giving any credit to the fact that there are other ways.
No, I'm fully aware of the the other ways to get into the playoffs. However, you must first and foremost try to secure the division. Only after that do you worry about the wild card.
In this situation, the Saints MUST win out, whether or not you're looking at wild card or division.
Because of this, they will have swept the Bucs and the Bucs would have no better than the same record (11-5) as the Saints; the first tiebreaker is head to head, so the Saints would win that. Therefore, my saying to pull for the Bucs IS IN FACT taking your "look to the wildcard" into account.
quote:
we are looking at another, one that is easier and mathematically more realistic.
The Saints have to win out in any situation, so Tampa is out of the equation.
quote:
your way is based on the Saints winning out. ours is based on the Saints losing one game.
If you go in assuming a loss, then you aren't getting into the playoffs.
My assumption is that in order for the Saints to make the playoffs, they must win out. That is the most realistic and easy assumption. One loss, and you can consider us done.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:17 am to Sophandros
quote:
Sophandros
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:18 am to Sophandros
I'm not assuming that the Saints WILL go 6-0.
I'm saying that IF the Saints want to make the playoffs, they HAVE TO GO 6-0 AND get some help. Anything less would result in missing the playoffs, IMO.
Now, after this weekend, the assumption set may change, depending on the results. Let's say that the Saints win and Tampa, Minnesota, Dallas, and Seattle all lose. You'd have a log jam of teams at 6-5 AND a win on Thursday night against the Falcons only brings the Saints to within 3 games with 4 to play. That drastically changes the calculus.
But until then, I'm sticking with my assumption set.
I'm saying that IF the Saints want to make the playoffs, they HAVE TO GO 6-0 AND get some help. Anything less would result in missing the playoffs, IMO.
Now, after this weekend, the assumption set may change, depending on the results. Let's say that the Saints win and Tampa, Minnesota, Dallas, and Seattle all lose. You'd have a log jam of teams at 6-5 AND a win on Thursday night against the Falcons only brings the Saints to within 3 games with 4 to play. That drastically changes the calculus.
But until then, I'm sticking with my assumption set.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:21 am to Sophandros
quote:
However, you must first and foremost try to secure the division. Only after that do you worry about the wild card.
thats where we differ. at this point, my goal is to get the wild card spot because that is more likely. the scenario I outline in the OP would make the saints tied for the last wild card spot. that's what i'm looking for.
again, i completely understand your way. it's spot on, and the more you outline it, the better i understand it. but for me, the goal is wild card and for you the goal is division.
i don't know if my brain can take much more logic and attempts at defending my cause, this is my thanksgiving break finally, a few days off school. my mind needs a break
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:23 am to quail man
Here is my scenario. Try to win all of your games because that's all you can control. See where the chips fall at the end. Period.
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:36 am to quail man
You had me at:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (12:00 PM, FOX) -- Atlanta.
Thanks for the continued support!
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (12:00 PM, FOX) -- Atlanta.
Thanks for the continued support!
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