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Message
re: Kiper's Big Board Updated
Posted on 2/11/17 at 3:44 pm to MSG
Posted on 2/11/17 at 3:44 pm to MSG
Pretty solid? Jarvis Jones has been a bust as a first rounder, and the Steelers are letting him walk after only 6 sacks in 4 years.
And if we are whining about picking Vaccaro over him, KV has had a FARRRRRRRRRRR better career to this point.
And if we are whining about picking Vaccaro over him, KV has had a FARRRRRRRRRRR better career to this point.
This post was edited on 2/11/17 at 3:46 pm
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Posted on 2/11/17 at 4:03 pm to Rand AlThor
quote:
Not an overly explosive or quick-twitch athlete.
There was a pass rusher who was viewed as a top 5 pick in the 2003 draft who dealt with the same negative questions concerning these same issues. Who was that pass rusher? It was Terrell Suggs. He almost slid out of the top 10. He even bombed at the combine which he responded by saying...
quote:
"I didn't do as good as I want...Some teams might grade me down, (but) in my opinion football speed and track speed are totally different things. Just look at me playing football. I can play football."
LINK
The Ravens did the right thing by believing what they saw on film, trusting Suggs production at ASU & his solid short shuttle time instead placing more value on his 4.88 40 yard dash time.
quote:
While the performance isn't likely to drop him out of the top 10 for next month's draft, Arizona State defensive end and sack terror Terrell Suggs had what most scouts acknowledge as a disappointing workout Wednesday. Suggs auditioned for nearly 100 talent evaluators in his on-campus session.
The NCAA record-holder for most sacks in a season, Suggs was sluggish in his first full-scale offseason exposure, and at various times in the workout, he appeared both frustrated and nervous. In fact, Suggs woke up at 4 a.m. on Wednesday, apparently over-anxious about the audition.
Suggs checked in at 6-feet-3 3/8 and 257 pounds. That is the same height he was at the combine sessions in Indianapolis last month, but his weight had dropped by five pounds. That is key for Suggs, who wants to be able to play in the 260- to 265-pound range in the NFL.
The highly regarded end ran two 40-yard sprints, and was timed at 4.82-4.86 in the first and 4.77-4.85 in the second, according to scouts in attendance. He had a 32 ½-inch vertical jump and a 9-foot standing long jump.
His times at 10 yards were not available, and those could be critical, because many scouts use those times more as a barometer for defensive ends.
"You still have to look at the kid's body of work for his career and, let's face it, he was just hell on wheels as a pass rusher in college," said a scout from one AFC South franchise. "Did he help himself? No, it's not like he moved himself up into position to be considered for the top (overall) pick. But he isn't going to fall too far."
Suggs, who won't even turn 21 until midway through his rookie season, had 24 sacks in 2002 and 44 during his three seasons with the Sun Devils. He also had 65 ½ tackles for losses, a school record.
LINK
There are times when you have to put the physical measurables like the 40 yard dash to the side & focus on the film, production, leadership intangibles, work ethic & heart. Also, the 40 yard dash is not the most physical measurable when it comes to defensive lineman & even more importantly edge rushers. The short shuttle is way more important to a pass rushers success or lack there of. Barnett isn't going to have a great 40 yard dash time but I'm willing to bet he ends up with a great short shuttle because his first step off the snap of the ball is awesome. This article addresses the importance of the short shuttle.
quote:
SackSEER’s other workout metric is the short shuttle run. The drill measures change-of-direction speed, burst, and hip flexibility, which are understandably important to rushing the passer.
quote:
The importance of the short shuttle appears to be a well-kept secret. There is no significant correlation between draft position and the short shuttle, which suggests that teams basically ignore it. In contrast, research suggests that teams put a fair amount of weight on 40- yard dash times when drafting edge rushers - more weight than any other workout number.
Although there is some relationship between the 40-yard dash and pass rushing success, the 40-yard dash is collinear with both the vertical leap and the short shuttle and does not materially increase the strength of the regression when introduced into the model. Stated more simply, the 40- yard dash is only useful in projecting edge rushers to the extent that it identifies prospects who already have good vertical leaps and short shuttle times.
A great example of the short shuttle’s predictive power relative to the 40-yard dash is Terrell Suggs. Suggs had a phenomenal collegiate sack record, but ran a number of 40-yard dashes at his pro day and only managed to score a poor average of 4.88 seconds. Suggs’ poor 40 time was widely reported (as well as his attendant drop in "draft stock") and it was a mere footnote that Suggs had, on the same day, logged a respectable 4.33-second short shuttle time. Ultimately, the Baltimore Ravens were rewarded handsomely for not overly relying on Suggs’ 40-yard dash.
LINK
Posted on 2/11/17 at 4:03 pm to Rand AlThor
Continued...
These are some important aspects to keep in mind when trying to to project players potential.
The combination of Barnett’s tape, overall production, (broke Reggie White's sack record at Tennessee) & level of competition is better than any other DE/OLB in this draft class including Myles Garrett.
These are some important aspects to keep in mind when trying to to project players potential.
quote:
How mistakes happen
Understanding level of competition
Mistakes occur each year when teams believe what they see on the workout tape and neglect what they see in game film -- or they misjudge the competition. Evaluating college players requires an evaluation of the players' opponents. Level of competition is the key factor in evaluation, so when you hear someone say they watched 10 games on an individual player, you might want to ask what 10 games? Or else why did you waste time watching him play against players who will never come close to playing in the NFL?
As an example, evaluating a player in the Southeast Conference against a smaller team out of conference is not an accurate basis. To accurately evaluate college talent, you must view the player against the best. One good level of competition tape is worth more than five tapes against bad players. Never get caught up with someone saying they watched every game. It's more important to watch the right ones, not all of them.
This is what makes evaluating small-school players so difficult. Great players should dominate against lesser competition. And when they don't, a red flag should go up.
Don't overblow the 40
Another area in which mistakes occur is a misevaluation of the player's talent, or a misevaluation of a player's commitment to success. Take Ravens outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, for example. He was a great pass rusher every year at Arizona State. He was the kind of player who, no matter who you viewed playing defense from Arizona State, your eyes always shifted to Suggs. He was a what I call "get the media guide out on this guy" player, which means he is so dominant that we have to turn the tape off to find out about this player and keep that information for a future date.
But once Suggs got into the player evaluation system, his 40-time became the biggest problem, causing a great pass rusher to slip in the draft. Mistakes happen when teams don't believe their eyes while watching the game tape. Ever wonder why Jerry Rice was a mid first-round pick and the third receiver taken in 1985? His 40-time was not the fastest, but his play on the field was fast. In fact, with the ball in his hands, Rice was as fast as when he was not carrying the ball.
The key is best said by former Boston Celtics legendary coach Red Auerbach: "I get my information from looking, not talking."
Yet players like Suggs slip because of the combine, because of 40 times that caused teams to pick on that one area of weakness, even though it never affected his play on tape.
The combination of Barnett’s tape, overall production, (broke Reggie White's sack record at Tennessee) & level of competition is better than any other DE/OLB in this draft class including Myles Garrett.
This post was edited on 2/11/17 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 2/11/17 at 4:19 pm to MSG
quote:
Barnett reminds me of Jarvis jones coming out of Georgia. Balled out in college
Jarvis Jones has been dried up dog shite in the NFL. Terrible comparison. Secondly, if anyone paid attention to his last year at UGA, he racked up his sack numbers against the piss poor offensive lines of Florida, Missouri & Tennessee as well as FCS competition. He was so overrated, it wasn't funny. His first step was slow & he lacked a repertoire of different pass rush moves. His short shuttle was 4.71 which is what you see from nose tackles/defensive tackles & not edge rushers. You combine that poor short shuttle time with his slow arse 4.88 40 yard dash & it should have raised a ton of red flags. It must have for a lot of teams being that Jones slid down the board but the Steelers made the mistake of ignoring those red flags.
This is good breakdown of Jarvis Jones lack of explosion measurables & why he has been a bust.
LINK
Posted on 2/11/17 at 4:51 pm to BigBrod81
I agree with the general concept of what you're saying, but the lack of explosion that you see from Barnett isn't because of his 40 time. We haven't even seen his 40 yet. The lack of speed is visible on tape. So "trusting the tape" gives you that opinion imo.
Like I said, I still like Barnett and I generally choose production over athleticism, but in the case of Thomas, he has both, so I rate him higher.
Like I said, I still like Barnett and I generally choose production over athleticism, but in the case of Thomas, he has both, so I rate him higher.
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:00 pm to Rand AlThor
Thomas is gonna go before Barnett.
I like Barnett's production but I think Thomas has the higher ceiling
I like Barnett's production but I think Thomas has the higher ceiling
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:00 pm to Rand AlThor
quote:
The lack of speed is visible on tape.
Please let me know where this lack of speed is. Also, Barnett’s first step off the snap is as good or better than any rusher in this draft.
Derek Barnett Highlights
quote:
We haven't even seen his 40 yet.
40 time doesn’t mean squat in terms of rushing the passer. You obviously ignored everything in my prior posts because Terrell Suggs dispelled this notion with his 4.88 40 in 2003 yet it was his short shuttle that displayed he had quick feet & the ability to change direction. Aspects that are far more important to pass rushers than a 40 time.
It's obvious you have no clue what the short shuttle drill is & why it is important to WRs, CBs, RBs & DEs/LBs so let me help you. If a player doesn't have quick feet, has tight hips & lacks flexibility, the short shuttle will let you know this. The results don't lie & it's a drill that should be paid more attention to than the the 40 yard dash for many positions.
Combine Short Shuttle Drill
This post was edited on 2/11/17 at 5:23 pm
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:18 pm to BigBrod81
To be fair, highlights aren't the same as tape. And for some reason there are a ton of mocks that have Barnett falling to mid and late round.
Now some of that is because some the people doing mocks are just following everybody else but also some of the mocks have NFL scouts in their phones and they're talking about individual players.
Now some of that is because some the people doing mocks are just following everybody else but also some of the mocks have NFL scouts in their phones and they're talking about individual players.
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:32 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
And for some reason there are a ton of mocks that have Barnett falling to mid and late round.
And there are still a ton others that have him as a top 10-15 pick. Either way, these mocks are meaningless pre combine & not the final word on where a player will be or should be drafted. If the combine had passed already & Barnett performed poorly then I could see the justification of dropping him. The combine is still a few weeks away which means these mocks are as good as toilet paper right now.
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:36 pm to BigBrod81
quote:
Please let me know where this lack of speed is.
Man, come on. Are you saying that every evaluator in media is just lying and he actually has elite speed? He lacks elite, top-end burst. He has great hands. He has great strength. He has great technique. I have watched him play. The dude balls out always. I like him a lot and I think he has a high floor. But he lacks elite speed and burst, it's just the truth.
quote:
40 time doesn’t mean squat in terms of rushing the passer.
No shite. I didn't say that it did. You were the one who brought up 40 times, not me. I was saying that I am not basing the opinion that he lacks elite speed on a 40 time (which you basically accused me of), because we haven't even seen a 40 time from him. I think he lacks elite speed because you can see it on the tape.
This post was edited on 2/11/17 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:52 pm to Frank Black
Thanks man. I was thinking that, just unsure. 
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:52 pm to Rand AlThor
quote:
His name is actually Vidauntae... which totally explains why he goes by Taco... maybe
Posted on 2/11/17 at 5:58 pm to Rand AlThor
quote:
Are you saying that every evaluator in media is just lying
You can keep taking internet evaluators opinions as gospel if you want to. These guys have never been a part of an NFL scouting process & the ones who have are where they are because they were failures. I'll continue to focus on information from a scouting god & innovativor of modern day scouting.
quote:
Derek Barnett left Tennessee early because he knows he has a bright future ahead of him in the NFL. Gil Brandt, an NFL.com analyst and former VP of player personnel for the Dallas Cowboys (1960-89) thinks Barnett will learn his new team not long after the draft starts.
Gil Brandt ? @Gil_Brandt
Looking forward to speaking with Tennessee DE Derek Barnett. He's a top-10 pick, in my estimation.
LINK
quote:
But he lacks elite speed and burst, it's just the truth.
quote:
I didn't say that it did. You were the one who brought up 40 times, not me. I was saying that I am not basing the opinion that he lacks elite speed on a 40 time (which you basically accused me of), because we haven't even seen a 40 time from him.
I brought up the short shuttle & not the 40 yard dash.
quote:
I think he lacks elite speed because you can see it on the tape.
You mean the same tape that shows a quick first step along with enough quickness to beat tackles time & time again? Are you insinuating that Barnett only has a bullrush in his pass rush reportoire? If so, you are kidding yourself if you watch Barnett’s highlights & think he broke Reggie White's sack record on pure power alone. He has shown plenty of enough speed to beat tackles around the edge. Let's come back to this after he runs his short shuttle at the combine because you are way off here.
This post was edited on 2/11/17 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 2/11/17 at 6:31 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
also some of the mocks have NFL scouts in their phones and they're talking about individual players.
Now this is hilarious especially since this is a thread about a Mel Kiper mock when there were accusations towards Kiper a few years back about him possibly receiving kick backs from agents to hype up their clients.
quote:
The SI story alleges that Wichard and Luchs called Kiper when the agents were meeting with Stanford defensive lineman Willie Howardin 2000. As the story goes, Wichard told Kiper he was meeting with the best defensive lineman in college football. To which, Kiper responded by saying Wichard must be in the room with Howard. The tone of the article suggests that Wichard called Kiper in advance so they could ham it up about Howard and get him to sign with Wichard.
The story also implies that Kiper rates Wichard's clients more favorably in his rankings, which appear on ESPN, ESPN.com and in Kiper's books published by Mel Kiper Enterprise Inc.
The question that ultimately has to be asked is this: if true, what would Kiper get out of having call arrangements with Wichard and ranking Wichard's clients higher? That is where your mind gets to run wild.
When Sports Illustrated contacted Kiper, he denied the call with Wichard, Luchs and Howard. Kiper did say, though, that he is friends with Wichard and has spoken to some of his players. Kiper added that he does that "all the time" for different agents. Kiper also said he "would never promote Gary or any other agent to a player."
Kiper also denied that he rates players higher if they are Wichard's clients.
Speaking to SI, Howard confirmed the phone call with Kiper while meeting with Wichard and Luchs.
Wichard runs Pro Tect Management. Among his clients are Jason Taylor, Dwight Freeney, Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Antonio Cromartie, C.J. Spiller, Keith Bulluck and Jimmy Clausen.
Kiper has faced scrutiny in the past about his involvement with agents. In April of 2009 when Kiper had Clausen rated as the top quarterback (ahead of Sam Bradford) and fourth overall, the Washington Post said there were whispers about the draft analyst's friendship with Wichard
LINK
Posted on 2/11/17 at 8:43 pm to BigBrod81
quote:
ou can keep taking internet evaluators opinions as gospel if you want to. These guys have never been a part of an NFL scouting process & the ones who have are where they are because they were failures.
Oh?
quote:
Daniel Jeremiah (born December 5, 1977) is an analyst for the NFL Network, and a writer with NFL.com.[1]
Jeremiah was a starting quarterback at Northeastern Louisiana in 1997 and Appalachian State from 1998 to 2000.[2] He was a college scout with the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and Philadelphia Eagles.[3]
From his big board, which has Barnett 17th (just about right):
quote:
Derek Barnett - DE, Tennessee
Barnett has a square, sturdy frame for the position and he's been extremely productive throughout his career. As a pass rusher, he primarily wins with power or snap anticipation. He doesn't have elite speed or agility, but he's very powerful and he knows how to set up offensive tackles. He has a variety of hand moves and his motor never stops. He knows how to flatten to the quarterback at the very top of his pass rush and he's an excellent finisher. Against the run, he is inconsistent at the point of attack. He gets washed down the line on occasion but will also destroy tight ends and set the edge. Overall, I love Barnett's production and motor but there are some concerns with his athleticism.
But yeah, internet scout, has no clue what he's talking about, never been around the NFL scouting process.
quote:
I brought up the short shuttle & not the 40 yard dash.
Your entire first two posts responding to me were about why the 40 yard dash should be ignored in favor of the short shuttle, insinuating that I was making some sort of assumption about his 40 yard speed and how it relates to his game speed. I was not, and I did not mention the 40 yard dash at all in my original post to which you replied. I have never made the statement that his 40 has anything to do with the speed that is relevant in this conversation. From the beginning I was talking about his explosion off the edge, his first-step speed coming around the edge. It is close to a consensus across the board that it isn't elite.
quote:
Are you insinuating that Barnett only has a bullrush in his pass rush reportoire?
No. I've mentioned several times that he has good technique, excellent hands and above average power. He has a solid first step, combine that with the other factors and he is an excellent college DE. It won't be so easy in the NFL. He doesn't have elite burst.
This is a pointless argument. Your response to my original post had little to do with what I actually said - I praised Barnett, I just said I like Thomas better because he is a far superior athlete and has a higher ceiling - and you responded with some grandstanding BS. You are always trying to come up in these threads acting like you are some sort of expect on drafting, give me a fricking break. They might lap this retarded shite up on Saints Report, I'd give it a try
Posted on 2/11/17 at 10:10 pm to Rand AlThor
quote:
Daniel Jeremiah (born December 5, 1977) is an analyst for the NFL Network, and a writer with NFL.com.[1]
Jeremiah was a starting quarterback at Northeastern Louisiana in 1997 and Appalachian State from 1998 to 2000.[2] He was a college scout with the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and Philadelphia Eagles.[3]
quote:
the ones who have are where they are because they were failures.
Looks like your reading comprehension skills are lacking too.
If Jeremiah was such a great scout why has he been stuck at NFL Network for years? Why aren't teams knocking at his door his services? It's because he sucked, that's why.
quote:
But yeah, internet scout, has no clue what he's talking about
Let's look at some of Jeremiah's misses in his predictions.
Devante Parker
2015 draft prospect out of Louisville
I describe him as a poor man's A.J. Green, and I mean that as a high compliment. (He's not a broke man's A.J. Green.) Parker is tall, silky smooth and boasts unbelievable tracking skills -- his ability to adjust to balls down the field is second to none. He's also sneaky scary after the catch and surprised some evaluators with a 4.45 40-yard dash at the combine. This dude's just a smooth operator.
When it comes to this class of wide receivers, a lot of people have been labeling Kevin White and Amari Cooper as the "Big Two." To me, it's a Big Three. All three of these guys rank among the top eight overall players on my big board. Parker is worth a top-10 pick in this draft.
Shawn Oakman
Oakman is a future star. He has rare size, length, and athleticism. He's listed at 6-foot-9, 280 pounds, although I believe he's probably closer to 6-7. Either way, he's huge. He moved around in the Bears' scheme. He lined up at end, tackle, and even stood up some as an outside linebacker. He has a quick first step and he uses his length to swat away blockers at the point of attack.
De'Anthony Thomas, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Draft position: Round 4, No. 124 overall
The former Oregon back has the explosiveness and versatility to create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. And who better than Andy Reid to scheme up creative ways to take advantage of Thomas' unique skill set? I think the fourth-rounder will end up being an incredible bargain for Kansas City.
Justin Gilbert, CB, Cleveland Browns
Draft position: Round 1, No. 8 overall
This probably looks odd. How can the eighth overall pick be a pleasant surprise? My answer: He's the least talked about top-10 pick in NFL history. The media is consumed with minute-by-minute updates of Johnny Manziel's play, which has allowed Gilbert to slide under the radar. He's the most talented cornerback from the 2014 class, and I believe he'll post big numbers this season, playing opposite Joe Haden.
Justin Gilbert
In other words, don't take Jeremiah's word as the truth because he is nothing special as a scout.
quote:
Against the run, he is inconsistent at the point of attack. He gets washed down the line on occasion
I find it funny that a player who produced so many TFL can be inconsistent against the run.
On the other hand........
Gil Brandt on Dak Prescott before this past season.
quote:
So where does that leave the Cowboys this season? In pretty good hands, I believe.
Despite the history that might say otherwise, I think Prescott will handle the bright spotlight well. His history says he will.
quote:
At Mississippi State, he was a three-year starter in the nation's toughest conference. In 2014, he led the Bulldogs to nine straight victories to open the season, including three in a row over top-10 opponents that led to the school's very first No. 1 ranking. He won 20 games in his final two years in Starkville, setting nearly every school passing record along the way. Currently he sits third on the SEC's all-time list for passing yards and fourth in total touchdowns.
Nothing seems too big for Prescott. It was one of the reasons I was so enamored with him in the months leading up to the draft.
quote:
In the end, this could turn out to be a huge blessing for the Cowboys. If nothing else, in two months they'll know if they have their quarterback of the future.
LINK
quote:
Longtime Dallas Cowboys executive turned NFL Media man Gil Brandt likes his old team’s selection of Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott.
quote:
"Well let me say this to you and you're going to laugh when I tell you this. [Prescott] is a better football player than Tim Tebow,” Brandt said, per the Dallas Morning News. “He's a better football player than Tim Tebow. You're going to laugh when I say that because Tebow was a first-round pick because he was on a very, very good team at Florida. But this guy is a better football player. He has some work to do because they played the Florida offense, which is not a passing offense we see in the NFL.
“But I think Prescott has a lot of upside, I liked him a lot and I told one of your fellow writers back in February I think it was this was the quarterback they were going to draft.”
LINK
Gil Brandt>>>>>>>>>Daniel Jeremiah & it's not even close
Gil Brandt, the vice president of player personnel for the Cowboys from 1960 to 1989, helped Dallas grow into one of the most powerful and popular sports franchises in America. His innovative management and personnel systems are standard operating procedure today for many teams at the professional and collegiate levels nationwide. As NFL Media's personnel guru, Brandt offers insight and commentary on all aspects of players and teams.
quote:
You are always trying to come up in these threads acting like you are some sort of expect on drafting, give me a fricking break. They might lap this retarded shite up on Saints Report, I'd give it a try
This post was edited on 2/12/17 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 2/11/17 at 10:35 pm to L.A.
This board will fall in love with Tak McKinley after the combine.
Posted on 2/12/17 at 12:02 pm to Hot Carl
quote:Tre weighed in at 191 at the Senior Bowl.
Surely Tre White is bigger than 170, no? He seemed bigger than that his freshman year.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 10:48 am to Lester Earl
quote:
You prob said the same thing about Landon Collins
Collins was an elite safety in college that hit like a truck. I didn't expect him to be as good as he turned out to be, but he was a very productive safety in college and an elite open field tackler. There was always going to be a spot for a guy like that despite his coverage weaknesses coming out. Just don't see that "nose for the ball" from peppers like you saw from Collins. Landon had 65 more tackles and 4 more interceptions over their careers, and their role trajectories were pretty similar from a playing time standpoint. I have a hard time picturing Jabrill Peppers flying downhill to stone Leonard Fournette in the B gap. He might turn out to be a great player. For a tweener though, he isn't exceptional at any one thing. We're talking about a 205 pound kid that lacks good coverage skills. Not sure that he has the bulk or mentality to be a box safety at the next level, certainly wouldnt want him in the first round
Personally I'd prefer a guy that's great in coverage and average in run support, or a guy that's great in run support and average in coverage over a guy that's average at both; which is how peppers looks to me
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 10:53 am
Posted on 2/13/17 at 10:56 am to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
Not sure that he has the bulk or mentality to be a box safety at the next level, certainly wouldnt want him in the first round
I can't believe Kiper has him at #13. I probably wouldn't even take him if he fell to the 2nd round. Obviously some team would, but I wouldn't want it to be the Saints.
He has a lot of talent, but I question his transition from college to the NFL.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 10:59 am
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