Interesting Metric Correlation between Pass Rushers and NFL Success

quote:

---

Broad Jump 9'9" or better, 3 cone under 7.20. It seems almost too simple on the surface, but check this out.
I'm looking at every player drafted between 2003 and 2012. I'm not including players drafted in 2013/14/15 because they haven't completed their rookie contracts yet.
That said, players who jumped 9'9" or better in the broad jump AND had a 3 cone under 7.20 average almost 21 sacks by the end of their rookie contract, AKA their first 4 seasons in the league. The exact number is 20.84 for those of you who are skeptical about me saying "almost".
Players who fail ONE of those two little checks average 6.8 sacks by the end of their rookie contract. Players who fail both average 5.9.

To look beyond just averages, get this. The odds of a player contributing exactly 0 sacks for a team if they check these boxes are 15.56%. If they fail to check even one of the two boxes those odds go up to 35.85%. Failing to check both boxes raises the odds even more, to 43.18%.
The odds of a player accumulating at least 20 sacks in their rookie contract if they check both boxes? 45.65%. If they fail to check one? 8.49%. Fail both and your odds of accumulating 20+ sacks in your rookie contract are 6.82%.

At the end of the day, it's not COMPLETELY fool proof, but if you like playing the odds, this has gotta be the best combination of ease+accuracy out there.
If you don't like advanced metrics but still want a quick, easy way to tell which edge rush prospects have a good shot at being pretty good, all you need to pay attention to is 3 cone and broad jump. Seems simple enough, right?
Looking at this year's class, here are the players that check both boxes:

Joey Bosa (grats Chargers)
Alex McCalister
Trent Corney
Leonard Floyd (grats Bears)
Bryson Albright
Jonathan Woodard
Stephen Weatherly
Shaq Lawson (grats Bills)
Kamalei Correa
Tyler Roberts

Players who fail one check, but not two:

Shawn Oakman (3 cone 7.53)
Bronson Kaufusi (broad jump 9'3")
Shiro Davis (3 cone 7.22)
Emmanuel Ogbah (3 cone 7.26)
Tautvydas Kieras (broad jump 9'8")
Shilique Calhoun (broad jump 9'7")
Romeo Okwara (3 cone 7.38)
James Cowser (broad jump 9'3")
Noah Spence (3 cone 7.21)
Jason Fanaika (broad jump 9'5")
Tyrone Holmes (broad jump 9'5")
Dadi Nicholas (broad jump 9'8")
Victor Ochi (3 cone 7.24)
Yannick Ngakoue (3 cone 7.35)

Players who fail both checks - the only drafted edge rushers since 2003 to fail both checks and still manage 20+ sacks on their rookie contracts have been Carlos Dunlap, Jabaal Sheard, and Ray Edwards. Here are your almost-definitely-busts:

Carl Nassib
Jonathan Bullard (although I like him as an interior DL)
Kevin Dodd
Branden Jackson
Mehdi Abdesmad
Matt Judon

If we ran this little exercise using the 2013/14/15 draft classes, here are the players who would've passed as well as the # of sacks they have so far:

2013: Ezekiel Ansah (30), Devin Taylor (10.5), Jamie Collins (9.5), Armonty Bryant (8.5), Damontre Moore (8.5), Barkevious Mingo (7), Dion Jordan (3), Margus Hunt (1.5), Ty Powell (1), Corey Lemonier (1), Lavar Edwards (0), Joe Kruger (0), and Malliciah Goodman (0).

2014: Khalil Mack (19), Kony Ealy (9), Anthony Barr (7.5), Trent Murphy (6), Dee Ford (5.5), Marcus Smith (1.5), and Tyler Starr (0).

2015: Preston Smith (8), Danielle Hunter (6), Vic Beasley (4), Frank Clark (3), Kyle Emanuel (1), Randy Gregory (0), and Eli Harold (0)

It's worth noting that only 19.08% of all edge rushers drafted from 2003-2012 managed to eclipse the 20 sack mark during their rookie contract. Out of that 19.08% though, 68.97% check both of these athletic boxes. Food for thought.

---