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Grading Saints' Recent Drafts

Posted on 4/10/15 at 11:44 am
Posted by Chill Pill
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Member since May 2009
587 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 11:44 am
The method to my madness here is to compare picks versus players of other teams voted to Pro Bowls, assuming there was a Saint need at that time.

Starting with 2013 --

We get Vacarro, S at 15. Eric Reid, S (18) to 9'ers. Glaring fail.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR to the Vikes at pick 29. Saints get Stills with the 144th pick, so value wise, I think this is a wash [we'll see what kind of value we get with the Stills trade].

Travis Frederick, C to the Boys at 31, but was C a need for us at that time?

Le'Veon Bell, RB to the Steelers at 48, and Eddie Lacy to the Pack at 61, but we still had faith in Ingram plus we've had success with no-name RB's. In hindsight, a fail, but at that time? No.

With pick 75, we get Armstead. Solid pick.

With pick 82, we get Jenkins. Jury still out, but THUS FAR, no other pro bowlers from that class.

Grade at this point -- C-minus.

2012 -- this was immediately post bounty. We traded pick 27, which the Bungles used for Kevin Zeitler, G -- meh. Bucs get Doug Martin, RB, at 31.

Our first pick should've been at 59, but was forfeited due to BG. Next pro-bowlers after that pick are Russell Wilson at 75 and Nick Foles at 88. Clearly, QB was not a need for us.

Our 1st pick is Akiem Hicks at 89. Ty Hilton went to the Colts at 92. Hard to compare a DT need to a WR, but we clearly needed DLmen.


Our next picks are Toon at 122 and Corey White at 162. Jury still out on Toon. White was meh. Next pro bowlers from that class are Alred Morris, RB to Skins at 173, Blair Walsh, K to Vikes at 175, and Justin Bethel, S, to Cards at 177. Does missing out on Bethel, S, for White a CB was a fail? Maybe. But my God the overall quality of this class looks to suck. And so maybe we were lucky that Bounty gate happened that year.

Our final pick is Andrew Tiller, G at 179.

Grade at this point -- [considering our hands were tied, and the fact that this class generally sucked] -- C+

2011 --

at picks 24 and 28, we get Cam Jordan and Ingram. Subsequent pro bowlers for these positions are Justin Houston to the Chiefs at 70, and DeMarco Murray to the Boys at 71. The Jordan pick was a good one, but trading and moving up for a RB at 28 and then picking Ingram over Murray was, in retrospect, a massive fail.

The only other pro-bowler before next Saints pick is Randall Cobb, WR, to the Pack at 64. If we don't trade our 2nd to get move up and get Ingram and stay in the 2nd round, Cobb would have been available.

Our next pick is Martez Wilson, LB at 72 -- meh, but there are no other pro-bowl LB's from this class.

And then there's pick 88 -- Johnny Patrick. Compare that to Richard Sherman, who got picked at 154. We whiffed but hey, so did 31 other teams.

At picks 226 and 243, we get Greg Romeus, DE and Nate Bussey, LB.

Grade at this point -- another C-minus.

2010 --

5 years later, this looks to be a stud class overall in terms of pro bowl players. Our gem obviously is Graham. We're also defending champs and are picking last.

Our 1st pick is R-Rob at 32. The only post pick 32 pro bowl CB from this class is Alterraun Verner, Titans at 104.

At pick 64, we get Charles Brown. There are no post pick 64 Pro bowl OT's.

At pick 95, we get Jimmy [this classes was loaded with TE's].

At pick 123, we get Al Woods. There are no post 123 pro bowl DT's, but note that Kam Chancellor goes at 133 and Greg Hardy at 175.

Grade at this point -- B minus and only because of Jimmy.

2009 --

We pick Malcolm Jenkins at 14. We miss out on Vontae Davis, CB, who went to the Fins at 25, as well as Brian Cushing and Clay Mathews, LB's, who went at 15 and 26.

I'm not sure of the trade history and who we got, but our next pick isn't until the 4th round with Chip Vaughn, S, at 116 [clearly forgettable]. Had we kept our original draft order at picks 46 and 78, we see that with pick 46, the Texans get pro bowler Conner Barwin, DE. And with pick 78, the Chargers get pro bowler Louis Vasquez, G. Mike Wallace, WR, gets drafted at pick 84.

Other pro bowlers selected after these picks are Max Unger, C, at 49 [who granted we now have], LeSean McCoy at 53, and William Moore, S, to the Dirty Birds at 55.

Our next pick is Stanley Arnoux, LB, at 118. And then we get Morstead at 164.

Grade at this point -- not knowing who we got for the picks we traded, but considering who would have been available had we stayed put, I give this Saint class a solid D.

2008 --

with the 7th pick, we get Sed Ellis. The pro bowlers we miss out on are Jerod Mayo, LB, at 10, Ryan Clady, OT, at 12, Branden Albert, OT, at 15, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, CB, at 16, Aqib Talib, CB, at 20, Chris Johnson, RB, at 24, Mike Jenkins, CB, at 25, Duane Brown, OT, at 26, Brandon Flowers, CB, at 35, and Jordy nelson, WR, at 36.

With our next pick, we do get Tracy Porter, who arguably made the greatest play in Saint FB history. But he couldn't stay healthy, and I ask whether you would have rather had Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib, or Brandon Flowers at CB.

Oh and by the way, we miss out on Matt Forte at 44, DeSean Jackson at 49, Calais Campbell, DE, at 50, Ray Rice at 55, Martellus Bennett at 61 [while acknowledging that we probably don't get Jimmy 2 years later], Jamaal Charles at 73, Thomas Decoud at 98, and Josh Sitton, OT, at 135.

Our next pick is DeMario Pressley, DT, at 144. No other post pick 144 pro bowl DT's, but we do miss on Jerome Felton, FB, at 146, and Matthew Slater, WR, at 153.

But then BOOM, we get Nicks at 164.

Our final picks are Taylor Mehlhaff, K, at 178 and Adrian Arrington at 237.

Grade at this point -- C

I don't think Loomis is near genius level when it comes to the draft. Free agents -- I'd give him a B, but only because of Drew.
Posted by Midget Death Squad
Meme Magic
Member since Oct 2008
24447 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 11:46 am to
I only read books on tape
Posted by mm2316
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Aug 2010
6942 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 11:52 am to
quote:

We get Vacarro, S at 15. Eric Reid, S (18) to 9'ers. Glaring fail.



Stopped reading here.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166030 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 11:54 am to
quote:

I only read books on tape


reviewing book A... well author could have wrote to kill a mockingbird instead so not a good book.

C minus
Posted by The 25 Jersey
Tiger Stadium
Member since Oct 2007
1345 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 12:01 pm to
That's a whole lot of text just to tell us you're stupid.
Posted by adono
River Ridge
Member since Sep 2003
7307 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

I don't think Loomis is near genius level when it comes to the draft.


First, you put a lot work into this and you are applauded for that. However, trying to analyze past drafts is like trying to analyze a good marriage as opposed to a bad one...people are different and react to circumstances in their own way. The mere fact that a player excels, or fails, with one team may have little to no value. The scheme, coaching, and other players surrounding that guy are different and can yield different results.

Lastly, Loomis is not the only decision makers in the draft "war room". I suspect Payton has a huge hand in the picks.
This post was edited on 4/10/15 at 12:10 pm
Posted by OMFGKenny
Boothville-Venice
Member since Jan 2013
951 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 12:17 pm to
I dont understand how people can compare two team's drafts to each other. You dont know how a player is going to transition from college to NFL. No one knew Demarco Murray was going to be better than Ingram. Or that Russell Wilson was going to be a pro bowler. You scout to the best of your abilities and if you find a player that you like you draft him.
Posted by LSUtigers111
Member since Apr 2011
2067 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

Chill Pill


Maybe you should just draft for us
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30060 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 12:30 pm to
Or how about the fact that be compared stills to Patterson who looks like he's too dumb to comprehend what a route is. 4th round that vastly produced more than a 1st round receiver.

FYI OP, he didn't make it as a wr. He made it as a returner. Also reid had the benefit of a vastly better defense around him.
This post was edited on 4/10/15 at 12:33 pm
Posted by DeathValley85
Member since May 2011
17084 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 12:59 pm to
quote:

I only read books on tape


I listen to tapes on books
Posted by i drink the kool aid
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2013
169 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 1:08 pm to
I disagree, I believe that you could definitely grade drafts. I wouldn't compare to the what ifs or other teams, but you could look at it from a "how many contributors" we got from a draft. Sure everyone may not be effective in different systems, but that's the point of the draft, is to get people who fit your system and the saints have not the last few years.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30060 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

I disagree, I believe that you could definitely grade drafts. I wouldn't compare to the what ifs or other teams, but you could look at it from a "how many contributors" we got from a draft. Sure everyone may not be effective in different systems, but that's the point of the draft, is to get people who fit your system and the saints have not the last few years.



looking at contributions from one draft is good, comparing it to "what ifs" is pointless past a certain round. I'd say after the 2nd round its rather pointless.

you could say yeah we shat the bed picking jenkins > Cushing, but at the time we were pretty good with our LB corp and dreadful at DB
Posted by schexyoung
Deaf Valley
Member since May 2008
6533 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 2:14 pm to
That is a brutal way to grade drafts. If Seattle knew how good Wilson or Sherman would become, they sure as hell would have picked them much earlier in the draft. There are just too many variable that cannot be quantified. Having a larger number of picks allows for more chances to be "right" on a player.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
112179 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

I dont understand how people can compare two team's drafts to each other. You dont know how a player is going to transition from college to NFL. No one knew Demarco Murray was going to be better than Ingram. Or that Russell Wilson was going to be a pro bowler. You scout to the best of your abilities and if you find a player that you like you draft him.


Sooo the Raiders and Seattle haven't had any difference in their drafting abilities over the past 5-7 years , it's just purely luck?
Posted by Midget Death Squad
Meme Magic
Member since Oct 2008
24447 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 2:45 pm to
quote:

reviewing book A... well author could have wrote to kill a mockingbird instead so not a good book.

C minus




that's funny



quote:

That's a whole lot of text just to tell us you're stupid.


and so is that

Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
65422 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Oh and by the way, we miss out on...Thomas Decoud at 98...

Like missing out on the clap.

The "what if?" of the OP is erroneous as the NFL Draft is not conducted in a vacuum. If a team trades away a pick at, say #20, the team which they trade it to then can and does change the entire draft from that point on forward by picking ANY other player than the one the original #20 pick would have been used on.

Posted by adono
River Ridge
Member since Sep 2003
7307 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

Sooo the Raiders and Seattle haven't had any difference in their drafting abilities over the past 5-7 years


The Raiders are never a good example to use whenever discussing the NFL; it is considered by almost everyone as the most dysfunctional organization in the league.

Using anything during the Al "Crazy" Davis era is worthless. Looking at the last 5 years isn't too helpful either because they didn't have a 1st round pick 2 of those years. If you look at the players they selected, they didn't do a terrible job at all.
Posted by djmicrobe
Planet Earth
Member since Jan 2007
4970 posts
Posted on 4/10/15 at 9:13 pm to
This tells me that the Saints should never, ever, ever trade up for anyone. No matter how good it appears the player might be. Stay put in the draft or trade down, but not up.
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