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Started By
Message
Another Trade Down Scenario
Posted on 3/31/13 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 3/31/13 at 2:20 pm
My take is that they will go for Jordan, Jones, Ansah, Mingo, or Lotulelei if available. There is a reasonable chance all could be gone however. In that scenario then the trade down possibility skyrockets IMO. Some have been mentioned. Here's another...
Referencing the Tavon Austin thread I think it is accurate to say his floor could be at #16 to STL. Who could use Austin? He would be the absolute perfect replacement for Percy Harvin in Minnesota. The queens could jump the Rams and get him at the Saints #15. They have a perfect trade combo too. #23 + #52 is a very agreeable payment.
At #23 you might be talking some of these...
-a quality CB like Trufant or possibly Rhodes
-a top safety such as Vacarro or Cyprien
- Jesse Williams at NT
-OLB Jamie Collins
-ILB Ogletree or Minter
adding a #52 would put some of these names into the hat...
-OLB Lemonier or Demontre Moore
-NT John Jenkins
-Safeties Matt Elam or Eric Reid
-CBs Johnthan Banks or David Amerson
Some of those names are definite no-go's at #15 but look like great picks at #23. If THE guy isn't there I'd be happy for a trade down. Add the 2nd Rder and your odds of draft success multiply exponentially.
Referencing the Tavon Austin thread I think it is accurate to say his floor could be at #16 to STL. Who could use Austin? He would be the absolute perfect replacement for Percy Harvin in Minnesota. The queens could jump the Rams and get him at the Saints #15. They have a perfect trade combo too. #23 + #52 is a very agreeable payment.
At #23 you might be talking some of these...
-a quality CB like Trufant or possibly Rhodes
-a top safety such as Vacarro or Cyprien
- Jesse Williams at NT
-OLB Jamie Collins
-ILB Ogletree or Minter
adding a #52 would put some of these names into the hat...
-OLB Lemonier or Demontre Moore
-NT John Jenkins
-Safeties Matt Elam or Eric Reid
-CBs Johnthan Banks or David Amerson
Some of those names are definite no-go's at #15 but look like great picks at #23. If THE guy isn't there I'd be happy for a trade down. Add the 2nd Rder and your odds of draft success multiply exponentially.
9
Posted on 3/31/13 at 2:31 pm to blueslover
How would you feel about NT Johnathan Hankins at 23? Ryan was apparently very high on him while in Dallas.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 2:47 pm to Zoltan
skills-wise he looks like the real deal. Intangibles-wise he looks like a huge risk. Every scouting report ya read will talk about the plays he takes off and disappear for stretches in games. Another like Jarvis Jones in that we are not privy to what goes on in the interviews behind closed doors. Going from the college level to getting paid millions, that aspect is even larger IMO. If they took him, I'd be on board assuming they have those answers. If they passed on him I'd be just as satisfied for the same reason.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 2:52 pm to blueslover
Collins along with a Elam or Reed then a NT in the 3rd would be sic 
Posted on 3/31/13 at 3:01 pm to blueslover
I like
I'm really a trade down fan if our guy ain't there. Do what it takes to get a second round pick.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 3:08 pm to blueslover
Nope. Not trading back far enough. I want to trade the Ravens our 15 this year for their 4th, 5th, 7th this year and 2nd round pick in 2015.
Because great players are never picked at #15.
Because great players are never picked at #15.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 4:24 pm to blueslover
Really like Reid. I would like this trade.
Why would minn do this though?
It's like giving up a 2nd round pick to trade Harvin for Austin fir them.
Why would minn do this though?
It's like giving up a 2nd round pick to trade Harvin for Austin fir them.
This post was edited on 3/31/13 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 3/31/13 at 4:32 pm to St Augustine
Because Austin's rookie deal will be a hell of a lot cheaper than Harvin's money.
Edit: and Harvin was unhappy and not as durable as you would like for a top tier WR
Edit: and Harvin was unhappy and not as durable as you would like for a top tier WR
This post was edited on 3/31/13 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 3/31/13 at 4:35 pm to blueslover
I love the idea of trading back and getting 2 picks that could be just as successful as a Mingo at #15. Gotta have faith in the decision makers though as hard as it is to look past our horrible 1st round selections in the last decade
Posted on 3/31/13 at 4:52 pm to AlexMSU
What about Kenny Vacarro?
Posted on 3/31/13 at 5:15 pm to blueslover
Why I think trading back is stupid and I'm totally against it!
2012 draft: #15 Bruce Irving - #23 Riley Reiff & #52 Zach Brown
2011 draft: #15 Mike Pouncy - #23 Danny Watkins & #52 Marvin Austin
2010 draft: #15 Jason Pierre Paul - #23 Brian Boligia & #52 Jason Worilds
2009 draft: #15 Brian Cushing - #23 Michael Oher & #52 David Veikune
2008 draft: #15 Branden Albert - #23 Rashard Mendenhall & #52 Quinten Groves
Besides Oher and Mendenhall, none of them are worth any of those #15 picks. What do you want, a 2 in 10 chance of landing a good player or what has been a sure bet in the past 5 years?
2012 draft: #15 Bruce Irving - #23 Riley Reiff & #52 Zach Brown
2011 draft: #15 Mike Pouncy - #23 Danny Watkins & #52 Marvin Austin
2010 draft: #15 Jason Pierre Paul - #23 Brian Boligia & #52 Jason Worilds
2009 draft: #15 Brian Cushing - #23 Michael Oher & #52 David Veikune
2008 draft: #15 Branden Albert - #23 Rashard Mendenhall & #52 Quinten Groves
Besides Oher and Mendenhall, none of them are worth any of those #15 picks. What do you want, a 2 in 10 chance of landing a good player or what has been a sure bet in the past 5 years?
Posted on 3/31/13 at 6:37 pm to Suntiger
Great post, you actually just changed my mind.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 7:25 pm to blueslover
quote:
My take is that they will go for Jordan, Jones, Ansah, Mingo, or Lotulelei if available.
I hope we get one of these guys. Especially an OLB. I could get behind the idea of trading back ONLY if these guys weren't available.
However, if we did make a trade adding Jamie Collins and another player would make missing THE guy much easier.
Nice post Blues.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 8:33 pm to Suntiger
2006 NFL draft
#15 - CB Tye Hill
#23 - G Davin Joseph
#52 - WR Greg Jennings
I get what you are saying but you are completely missing the fact that stars were drafted AFTER the #23 and #52 picks in each draft, so it's not that the talent just isn't there... You have to get the right guys.
Edit: In the 2009 draft, instead of Brian Cushing at #15, you could have got Clay Matthews AND Lesean McCoy/Paul Kruger who were each still on the board for #23 and #52
#15 - CB Tye Hill
#23 - G Davin Joseph
#52 - WR Greg Jennings
I get what you are saying but you are completely missing the fact that stars were drafted AFTER the #23 and #52 picks in each draft, so it's not that the talent just isn't there... You have to get the right guys.
Edit: In the 2009 draft, instead of Brian Cushing at #15, you could have got Clay Matthews AND Lesean McCoy/Paul Kruger who were each still on the board for #23 and #52
This post was edited on 3/31/13 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 3/31/13 at 10:05 pm to blueslover
quote:
At #23 you might be talking some of these...
-a quality CB like Trufant or possibly Rhodes
-a top safety such as Vacarro or Cyprien
- Jesse Williams at NT
-OLB Jamie Collins
-ILB Ogletree or Minter
adding a #52 would put some of these names into the hat...
-OLB Lemonier or Demontre Moore
-NT John Jenkins
-Safeties Matt Elam or Eric Reid
-CBs Johnthan Banks or David Amerson
I'm thinking this thru as I read your options:
Love (6-0, 190, 4.38) Trufant's skills, but I give the slight edge to Rhodes b/c he is 6-2, 210, 4.39 with cover skills. Can't go wrong with either.
I've stated FS Jenkins could be replaced, but he's lower on the priority list, imo, unless you are moving him back to CB. If not, I don't know that I take FS's Vacarro or Reid. More inclined to go after Roman Harper with SS's Cyprien or Elam. I know Elam is short (5-10) but he singlehandedly dominated LSU & had a 4.43 forty, compared to Cyprien's 4.64.
Love OLB's Jamie Collins (6-4, 250, 4.59) & Lemonier (6-4, 255, 4.56). They pass rush & have the measurables I like. I'm taking Damontre Moore off my 1st & 2nd round board. He got literally manhandled by Lane Johnson in the Cotton Bowl. Lemonier took games off in lesser matchups (though he beasted against Bama & LSU), so I'm going with Collins, who actually dropped into coverage at times & is a very good pass rusher.
I like space-eaters NT Jesse Williams (6-4, 323) & Jenkins (6-4,346), but since they are not elite pass rushers like Star, I'd almost rather wait & take Brandon Williams (6-1, 335) in the 3rd round (who the Saints interviewed at the combine.)
Love Minter, but I think he is a true MLB like Lofton. So I'd rather a slightly athletic ILB like Ogletree to replace Vilma.
Going into the season, I watched Amerson (6-1, 205, 4.35) and he looked like the second coming of Nnamdi (Raider version), then this past fall he played like Nnamdi (Philly version). Banks has 6-2 size, but he ran a 4.61 at the combine, (but ran a 4.58 for the Saints brass at his Pro Day). Still I might pass on both in the 2nd round. (Though personally, I want to "reach" for Tyrann Mathieu in the 2nd round cuz some team like San Fran will take him before his projected 3rd rd grade. I think he would be the perfect NB for the Saints & Ryan's would use him aggressive like Chavis did.
So based on your available prospects & my convoluted reasoning, I think I'd take these scenario's:
BPA: 1st rd--Rhodes, 2nd rd--Reid (move Jenkins to corner)
NEED: 1st rd--Collins, 2nd rd--Elam (I love the idea of adding a pass rusher opposite Butler & also replacing Harper)
Posted on 3/31/13 at 10:24 pm to AlexMSU
I think that small sample size makes no case. There's prolly some minor higher amount of success at #15 than #23 but not significantly. At NFP they have been doing a series from THIS GUY that is all on success ratios per round and such. Worth a look for any draftniks. But as such a small sample you could make the case in the opposite fashion of comparable picks. Like these-
#16 & #24 by year
2012 Quentin Coples-David DeCastro
2011 Ryan Kerrigan-Cameron Jordan
2010 Derrick Morgan-Dez Bryant
2009 Larry English-Peria Jerry
2008 Rodgers-Cromartie-Chris Johnson
Those lower picks are cumulatively as good if not better than those 8 picks higher. There's no magic in any particular numbers.
#16 & #24 by year
2012 Quentin Coples-David DeCastro
2011 Ryan Kerrigan-Cameron Jordan
2010 Derrick Morgan-Dez Bryant
2009 Larry English-Peria Jerry
2008 Rodgers-Cromartie-Chris Johnson
Those lower picks are cumulatively as good if not better than those 8 picks higher. There's no magic in any particular numbers.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 10:26 pm to Suntiger
quote:
Why I think trading back is stupid and I'm totally against it!
2012 draft: #15 Bruce Irving - #23 Riley Reiff & #52 Zach Brown
2011 draft: #15 Mike Pouncy - #23 Danny Watkins & #52 Marvin Austin
2010 draft: #15 Jason Pierre Paul - #23 Brian Boligia & #52 Jason Worilds
2009 draft: #15 Brian Cushing - #23 Michael Oher & #52 David Veikune
2008 draft: #15 Branden Albert - #23 Rashard Mendenhall & #52 Quinten Groves
Ok, frick that.
I don't want to trade back any longer.
Posted on 3/31/13 at 10:28 pm to St Augustine
quote:
Why would minn do this though?
It's like giving up a 2nd round pick to trade Harvin for Austin fir them.
Cuz they got a #25 & 7th rder + a 3rd Rder next year for Harvin. So you give up the #23 & #52 with what you think will replace Harvin exactly (and for much cheaper) without giving up hardly more than what you got for Harvin.
Posted on 4/1/13 at 7:25 am to blueslover
quote:
quote: I still don't see the Saints staying at 15 they will most likely trade back with someone like Minnesota who had two first round picks and needs to move up to get a guy like Tavon Austin...in return the saints get the 23rd or 25th in the 1st and a 2nd round or another early 3rd One of these should be available at 23 or 25 Datone Jones – DE – UCLA Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M Alex Okafor – DE - Texas
Posted on 4/1/13 at 8:09 am to blueslover
Love it. Loomis, make it happen!
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