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2014 Compensatory picks projections
Posted on 3/24/14 at 5:30 am
Posted on 3/24/14 at 5:30 am
Seen a few posters inquire about these in some other threads. Ran across this article that has the projections for who and what teams will receive. Picks will be awarded at the up coming owners meeting. As usual the Saints get nada if the guy is correct. 
LINK
LINK
3
Posted on 3/24/14 at 6:32 am to DownHome
Nothing for Jermon Bushrod?
Posted on 3/24/14 at 6:51 am to Cleanmatt
My understanding of how picks are awarded is limited. If said FA is signed by another team and you sign FA of equal value( Butler? )then you are not compensated. But if FA signs with other team and you do not sign anyone of equal value then you can receive comp pick of value relative to the FA lost.
Nobody really knows how picks are awarded, my thought is they just throw darts at the wall.
Nobody really knows how picks are awarded, my thought is they just throw darts at the wall.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 8:02 am to Cleanmatt
bushrod:lewis
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:03 am to htran90
wiki-
compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more or better compensatory free agents than they signed in the previous year. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.
Basically some calculation of NET loss of free agency.
Expect zero for the Saints
compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more or better compensatory free agents than they signed in the previous year. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.
Basically some calculation of NET loss of free agency.
Expect zero for the Saints
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:07 am to DownHome
quote:
Under the rules for compensatory draft selections, a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires in the previous year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks.
I always thought it was based on the same position analysis, so if we didn't sign another O-Lineman from FA I thought we would get one. Oh well.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:09 am to bountyhunter
more-
After a very quiet weekend on the free-agent signing front, defending Super Bowl champion Seattle stayed in line to get a haul of compensatory picks at the 2015 draft. So far, the Seahawks have lost a total of 6 unrestricted free agents and signed none. Same story for Hosuton which is down a net 5 free agents after losing 5 while signing none. Meanwhile, other teams that could be in line to be awarded comp picks next year include Pittsburgh, Carolina and Kansas City, which is each down a net -4 free agents, while Green Bay and St. Louis are both down a net of -3 free agents.
After a very quiet weekend on the free-agent signing front, defending Super Bowl champion Seattle stayed in line to get a haul of compensatory picks at the 2015 draft. So far, the Seahawks have lost a total of 6 unrestricted free agents and signed none. Same story for Hosuton which is down a net 5 free agents after losing 5 while signing none. Meanwhile, other teams that could be in line to be awarded comp picks next year include Pittsburgh, Carolina and Kansas City, which is each down a net -4 free agents, while Green Bay and St. Louis are both down a net of -3 free agents.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:23 am to DownHome
quote:
Nobody really knows how picks are awarded, my thought is they just throw darts at the wall.
its actually really simple, generally.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:24 am to DownHome
quote:
Nobody really knows how picks are awarded, my thought is they just throw darts at the wall.
There's a few guys out there that clearly worked for the League office that post the compensatory picks every year based on the formula, and get them 100% accurate.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:28 am to blueslover
quote:
Basically some calculation of NET loss of free agency.
the real short cliff notes is that its 2 tier
First --- figure out how many you lost, and gained (note all must be qualified players -- expiring UFA contracts signed within a specific window, so you dont count RFAs you lose or guys you cut, or a free agent thats signed in July or a guy that was cut by his last team as examples of nonqualified losses and signings). If you signed more than you lost - nothing, quality doesnt matter. Signed the same as you lost, you can qualify for a 7th if the loss was major). Lost more than you signed, proceed to step 2
Step 2 - Cross out corresponding players and each list with the remaining losses that arent cancelled out by a signing being the ones that you use here. Find their average salary, and voila - you more or less know the pick. The cut offs arent announced, but typically by looking at the year before you can estimate pretty closely what the league used, tack on 5% and you get the new ones.
This post was edited on 3/24/14 at 9:35 am
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:30 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
There's a few guys out there that clearly worked for the League office
if i had more time, or interest I could probably hit at a higher rate than 29/32 annually. really the only 2 tricky parts are making sure you keep track of all the qualified signings (easy, but a lot of material) and estimate the salary cutoffs for each round (easy, but not 100% accurate)
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:32 am to Fun Bunch
Anyone know when was the last time the Saints were rewarded a comp pick? Just curious, seems like forever and a day.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 9:33 am to DownHome
quote:
Anyone know when was the last time the Saints were rewarded a comp pick? Just curious, seems like forever and a day.
id guess its been quite some time- we tend to sign our share of UFAs, and often departures are cuts.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 10:51 am to NoSaint
quote:
NoSaint
Thanks for the explanation. makes sense (sort of).
Posted on 3/24/14 at 10:54 am to DownHome
comp picks are the worst part of the off season. they are stupid and should not exist.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:04 am to Midget Death Squad
quote:
they are stupid and should not exist.
deserves discussion
Say the only free agent movement was losing Harper and Jenkins. Ya could make a case that the team is improved with them gone. Then, in that scenario, we would get picks.
Teams should rise and fall on their free agent signings (or not) and draft picks. Don't need such a imprecise buffer.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:04 am to Midget Death Squad
Ready to partayyyy?
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:25 am to whodatfan
Ugh.... planning this thing is stressful! I am smoking 8 pork butts, which I have never done anything of that amount before. I know it will be a disaster lol
Posted on 3/24/14 at 11:30 am to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
Thanks for the explanation. makes sense (sort of).
no prob - its really not terribly complicated, but can be tough to thoroughly explain briefly on a message board.
i cant say that its the most logical process to actually use for the league, but generally speaking its not terribly hard to predict even as an outsider.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 1:36 pm to blueslover
quote:
After a very quiet weekend on the free-agent signing front, defending Super Bowl champion Seattle stayed in line to get a haul of compensatory picks at the 2015 draft. So far, the Seahawks have lost a total of 6 unrestricted free agents and signed none.
Yet another reason why hitting in the draft is the way to win in this CBA.
You get guys that are starters, maybe worth a shite ton of money when their time comes, on the cheap. Then the benefits compound bc you can let go of your vets who are going to make money and get compensatory picks to try to hit more jewels.
Gotta stay young and cheap. Seems teams have a couple of good years after a great offseason before being dragged down by that anchor and then they resurge when all those guys that made the money are starting to get old and released. Looking at the last ten years, NYG in '11-'12 and steelers in '08-'09 are exceptions; those teams seem to be more vet'ish teams in my memory with qb's making big money.
I believe GB won before Rodgers got paid, and of course the pat's are always in constant flux, it seems, except for brady. Ravens were prretty much reduced to like 3 vets from their original surge in early 2000's and then a bunch of young guys.
I don't rreally know what the colts contracts were like when they won; that year just seems like it was an off year for everyone. I still cant believe the bears got that far with sexy rexy.
This post was edited on 3/24/14 at 1:40 pm
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