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re: Outside the Top 4, is this draft weak?
Posted on 3/24/16 at 12:08 am to Silverfoxx
Posted on 3/24/16 at 12:08 am to Silverfoxx
quote:
Hey guys, I'm Silverfoxx. But to answer the board question I believe so honestly. This draft is a huge crapshoot. I won't be suprise if this draft becomes a top 5 draft class of the decade or top 5 worse.
I did read your post, just not gonna quote the whole thing.
I think it is unlikely to be a bad class. Too many players with high floors.
Guys like Dunn, Hield, Murray, Simmons, Ingram, Valentine and Poetl may all never end up as allstars, but I think there is a good chance - barring injuries - that none of them will likely outright bust. Worse case scenario this would end up a slightly better 2013 draft. But frankly I like the guard talent in this class more then I have in quite some time. And players like Brown and Bender will probably at least become solid rotational role players. Then you have a number of guys with good measurables but are projects: Skal, Luwawu, Ellenson, Rabb etc. Probably at least one of those project guys with great physical attributes at least become a solid rotation player.
Maybe someone else can point me to another draft, but the guard talent in this draft seems deeper then any in recent memory. Mostly shooting guards, but yeah.
This post was edited on 3/24/16 at 12:14 am
1
Posted on 3/24/16 at 12:33 am to NOLA Bronco
If we take Murray over Heild, I will be bummed.
If we pass on Heild at 6, I will be bummed.
Therefore, I will be bummed.
If we pass on Heild at 6, I will be bummed.
Therefore, I will be bummed.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 1:19 am to SHMILL
quote:
If we take Murray over Heild, I will be bummed.
If we pass on Heild at 6, I will be bummed.
Therefore, I will be bummed.
Call it a hunch, but Hield is likely pretty high on our list.
Whether we like it or not this franchise likely wants a player with both a solid ceiling, low bust potential and has proven himself to be able to play in the sort of system we are looking to implement.
Hield checks all of those boxes. Like really checks those boxes.
- 99th percentile as a catch and shoot player. Averaging 1.6 points per catch and shoot attempt. Which is insane.
- Great scorer off the pick and roll, off screens and as already mentioned, spotting up.
- Is top 10 in all of the NCAA in transition. He is elite on the break. Scoring 1.4 points per attempt in transition. And makes very few mistakes when playing up tempo according to Synergy. 30% of his possessions are in transition.
- Also according to synergy, in their words, he has been "very good" at drawing fouls off the dribble. And in isolation or the pick and roll gets to the line nearly 20% of the time. Which they claim is very high for the NCAA.
He has question marks, don't get me wrong, but if we are picking 6 or 7, I could see Hield being pretty high on our board if we are still looking to play Gentry ball.
This post was edited on 3/24/16 at 1:23 am
Posted on 3/24/16 at 7:07 am to NOLA Bronco
How does Heild's game compare to Klay Thomas when he was in college?
Sometimes it is a good pick to get somebody that has played more than one year in college.
I do not know much about him, but he seems to be ready to play in the NBA now. Plus he seems like he would fit in the Gentry system.
Sometimes it is a good pick to get somebody that has played more than one year in college.
I do not know much about him, but he seems to be ready to play in the NBA now. Plus he seems like he would fit in the Gentry system.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 7:13 am to Split2874
Didn't know till just now, Klay's dad is former #1 Overall pick Mychal Thompson.
2-time NBA Champ with the Magic/Kareem Lakers...
2-time NBA Champ with the Magic/Kareem Lakers...
Posted on 3/24/16 at 7:43 am to Split2874
quote:
How does Heild's game compare to Klay Thomas when he was in college?
Neither Klay nor Steph had a shooting year in college like what Hield is doing this year. Although both were 3 year players and Heild is doing it in his 4th.
JJ Redick's senior season at Duke is pretty similar to what Heild is doing this year.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 8:13 am to SuperSoakher
They would laugh at that. They would only trade him if they were getting Ingram or Simmons. Unless Boston would unload all their picks.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:18 am to bugafor6
I think the question for everyone is, "is a more reliable version of 2014-2015 Eric Gordon good enough for you at #6?" If it's me, it's easily a "yes". We have the ball handlers to create. You saw it that season. If Hield can simply fill empty spots on the floor and jack threes at a reliable clip on offense, I hardly have a problem with that. He'd probably be a better defender than 2014-15 Gordon with less health concerns. He's longer with less tread on the tires and by all accounts an insanely hard worker.
None of the teams currently in the lottery can boast two true two-way players that check off ball handling and big...except LOLHOUSTON. We have that luxury in Holiday and Davis. If you truly believe what we are seeing from Holiday this year to be what we see moving forward (and to be honest, the team kind of has to be all in at this point with the clock now ticking on Davis), we can afford the safer, more NBA ready players with higher floors and lower ceilings. This notion that Hield has huge "bust" potential in the NBA is laughable to me. He's easily got more game than Redick coming out of college. Barring injury, he can at the very least be a role player on very good teams.
TL:DR - It's Hield all day for me. The best NBA comparison I could think of to give to this board is Gordon in 2014-15.
None of the teams currently in the lottery can boast two true two-way players that check off ball handling and big...except LOLHOUSTON. We have that luxury in Holiday and Davis. If you truly believe what we are seeing from Holiday this year to be what we see moving forward (and to be honest, the team kind of has to be all in at this point with the clock now ticking on Davis), we can afford the safer, more NBA ready players with higher floors and lower ceilings. This notion that Hield has huge "bust" potential in the NBA is laughable to me. He's easily got more game than Redick coming out of college. Barring injury, he can at the very least be a role player on very good teams.
TL:DR - It's Hield all day for me. The best NBA comparison I could think of to give to this board is Gordon in 2014-15.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:33 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
"is a more reliable version of 2014-2015 Eric Gordon good enough for you at #6?"
I would counter this with "A Filthy Rich Man's Greivis Vasquez" (Valentine) + a 3 and D Wing or Asik Replacement Prospect (extra pick from trading back). Valentine can play 1-3, hit the 3 almost as well as Hield, and is a high IQ playmaker. While I don't dislike Hield, I don't think he or most of our likely options at 6 are so good that I wouldn't trade back. This team has too many holes to cover. Maybe Hield becomes the #4 guy on the roster but something like Valentine + Prince or Sabonis could end up becoming the #4/5 and #6/7 guys on your roster.
This post was edited on 3/24/16 at 9:35 am
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:36 am to ShamelessPel
I don't trust Jrue production this season. He has shown great signs of being healthy and developing his game but his usage and the green light won't happen next year with a more complete roster.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:41 am to Toula
If Heild was 6'7" he would be the first pick. He also wouldn't be a 4 year college player
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:42 am to TigerinATL
I would love to get Hield, but i would not object to trading down and getting Valentine, somehow getting rid of Asik and going after Diamond/Ellenson/Damien James
ALthough the odds are in your favor turning the 6th pick into something good rather than the 16th and 22nd pick turning out to be good (Boston's two picks).
ALthough the odds are in your favor turning the 6th pick into something good rather than the 16th and 22nd pick turning out to be good (Boston's two picks).
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:48 am to TigerinATL
So you trade with Denver for maybe 8/17?
Outside of that, I don't see another team with the assets you're asking for in return for #6. Would you do 15/17 for 6? I sure as hell wouldn't. 15 and a top 3 protected first next year?
ETA: Dumping Asik is a tempting proposition. So is dumping Ajinca. Denver has tons of cap space. Would they take 6 and Ajinca for 15/17? Would someone gobble up Asik for 6/Asik for a 14-18 pick? Goddammit it pisses me off that these contracts are so bad one year later I'd trade our only draft pick we've kept to move down and dump them.
Outside of that, I don't see another team with the assets you're asking for in return for #6. Would you do 15/17 for 6? I sure as hell wouldn't. 15 and a top 3 protected first next year?
ETA: Dumping Asik is a tempting proposition. So is dumping Ajinca. Denver has tons of cap space. Would they take 6 and Ajinca for 15/17? Would someone gobble up Asik for 6/Asik for a 14-18 pick? Goddammit it pisses me off that these contracts are so bad one year later I'd trade our only draft pick we've kept to move down and dump them.
This post was edited on 3/24/16 at 9:52 am
Posted on 3/24/16 at 9:53 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
ALthough the odds are in your favor turning the 6th pick into something good rather than the 16th and 22nd pick turning out to be good (Boston's two picks).
Boston is only a good trade down partner if we end up 3rd and they give us all of their picks. I'm thinking more stay at 6, Knicks and Nuggets keep winning, Rockets and Blazers make the playoffs, and then you're trading back from 6 to 9-11 with either Denver or Toronto. If it's Denver they can give you either the Houston or Portland pick in the mid teens, if it's Toronto you're getting a pick in the late 20s. Phoenix could be an ok trade back partner too if Washington starts losing, right now their extra picks are 13 and 28. 13 might be a little too far back from 6 for the guys I'd be ok trading back for.
This post was edited on 3/24/16 at 9:55 am
Posted on 3/24/16 at 10:05 am to 504ByrdGang
quote:
I don't trust Jrue production this season.
I'm not worried. Yes he's taking 4 more shots per 36 than in his previous 2 years with the Pels, but that's not really what's changed in his game. He's shifted to Moreyball. He's taking about 6% fewer shots from between 3 feet and the dumbzone and those shots have been reapportioned about equally between shots at the rim and 3 point shots. His FTA per 36 is more than double what its been in the past as a Pel and is now a respectable 4.3 per 36.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 10:13 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
Would they take 6 and Ajinca for 15/17? Would someone gobble up Asik for 6/Asik for a 14-18 pick?
The Asik deal was bad, but 2 wrongs don't make a right. Nobody of import is going to sign with us this offseason anyway so Asik isn't clogging up our cap. He's someone you look to move next offseason when the cap goes up $20 million for the 2nd year in a row and there will be teams with more money than they know what to do with. Maybe they take Asik for the 2017 Philly 2nd. Either way the cost to move him will decline the longer we hold onto him, so you don't move him until you actually need his cap space.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 10:16 am to TigerinATL
That's what I meant by he improved his game. I don't trust it in I don't think he will be a 17-20 ppg scorer next season.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 10:17 am to TigerinATL
I think people are getting caught up in Kawhi/Jimmy/Draymond like they did with Dirk. I like Valentine a lot, but I'm not giving up a prospect in Hield who is elite at something more and more important in today's game for him. I'm increasingly worried Hield won't be there at 6. I could see him being the Minny pick if they land outside the top 3 or even Philly at 3 or 4. Hell even the Lakers at 3 or 4.
Posted on 3/24/16 at 10:24 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
I'm not giving up a prospect in Hield who is elite at something more and more important in today's game for him.
Are you talking about 3 point shooting?
Hield shoots 46.3% from 3 shooting 8.6 3s per game LINK
Valentine shoots 44.4% from 3 on 7.5 per game LINK
No they aren't equal, but they aren't really far apart. Both would be considered elite volume 3 point shooters. And on a Per 40 minutes basis Valentine takes 9.2 3s per game vs Hield's 9.8
This post was edited on 3/24/16 at 10:27 am
Posted on 3/24/16 at 10:30 am to TigerinATL
quote:
No they aren't equal, but they aren't really far apart. Both would be considered elite volume 3 point shooters. And on a Per 40 minutes basis Valentine takes 9.2 3s per game vs Hield's 9.8
There's a reason Hield is a consensus top 8 pick as an undersized 2 while Valentine is a mid teens projection at 6'6''.
quote:
Schmitz goes year by year in analyzing Hield's progession from his freshman to senior seasons, both in terms of his scoring proficiency, but also with his ability to get to the free throw line and put the ball in the net efficiently. Hield has dramatically improved as an off the dribble shooter, both with his ability to create space for himself with advanced ball-handling moves, but also with his consistency making pull-up jumpers. His range now extends to the NBA arc, he looks highly comfortable in isolation situations, and he's much improved in pick and roll situations, particularly with his ability to use change of speeds and directions. Included is analysis from Buddy himself talking about the steps he's taken to improve as a shot-creator the way he has. Hield settled for too many floaters his first few years in college and was mostly unsuccessful doing so. He's now getting all the way to the rim, taking contact at the basket and finishing with his off hand. His improvement over the years has been dramatic and is something young players everywhere should study as it is in large part due to his extreme work ethic.
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