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re: ESPN Trade Scenario
Posted on 6/22/16 at 11:41 am to Jester
Posted on 6/22/16 at 11:41 am to Jester
quote:
The error in this kind of thinking is that this draft class is independent of previous draft classes. We're not playing roulette here, so this is like the draft gamblers fallacy. How do the guys available at 10 compare to the guys available at 6 THIS year?
Obviously we don't know who will be available and the entire point is even then, you have zero idea how college players will perform in the NBA.
Back to your list: All Star games since 1990 for the 6th pick
DAMIAN LILLARD 2012 2
CHRIS KAMAN 2003 1
WALLY SZCZERBIAK 1999 1
ANTOINE WALKER 1996 3
All Star Games since 1990 for the 10th Pick
PAUL GEORGE 2010 3
BROOK LOPEZ 2008 1
ANDREW BYNUM 2005 1
CARON BUTLER 2002 1
JOE JOHNSON 2001 6
PAUL PIERCE 1998 10
EDDIE JONES 1994 3
TOM GUGLIOTTA 1992 1
1
Posted on 6/22/16 at 11:51 am to Jester
Jaylen Brown could be at 10 (unlikely but could be). Malachi Richardson, Denzel Valentine, Dejounte Murray would all be there at 10.
Give me Monroe and #10 for the 6th pick and Asik or Reke. Pick one of the above at 10. Go after Parson, Batum, KD because you probably have enough money to throw a max at one of them.
Complementary teammates and a great supporting cast around AD
Give me Monroe and #10 for the 6th pick and Asik or Reke. Pick one of the above at 10. Go after Parson, Batum, KD because you probably have enough money to throw a max at one of them.
Complementary teammates and a great supporting cast around AD
Posted on 6/22/16 at 12:04 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Back to your list: All Star games since 1990 for the 6th pick
DAMIAN LILLARD 2012 2
CHRIS KAMAN 2003 1
WALLY SZCZERBIAK 1999 1
ANTOINE WALKER 1996 3
All Star Games since 1990 for the 10th Pick
PAUL GEORGE 2010 3
BROOK LOPEZ 2008 1
ANDREW BYNUM 2005 1
CARON BUTLER 2002 1
JOE JOHNSON 2001 6
PAUL PIERCE 1998 10
EDDIE JONES 1994 3
TOM GUGLIOTTA 1992 1
Which are statistical anomalies of a small sample size that have no bearing on this draft. I may as well just say that this all means that the 6th pick is destined to hit because of so many failures. It's faulty logic.
At 6, you can get any player available at 10. However, at 10, you are missing out on 4 possibilities that are likely higher on your list.
Posted on 6/22/16 at 12:20 pm to Jester
quote:
Which are statistical anomalies of a small sample size that have no bearing on this draft. I may as well just say that this all means that the 6th pick is destined to hit because of so many failures. It's faulty logic.
At 6, you can get any player available at 10. However, at 10, you are missing out on 4 possibilities that are likely higher on your list.
How are they statistical anomalies based on a small sample size? I never said the past drafts directly influence this draft.
The point is everyone's list every single year is usually wrong. That's why there are so many busts in the draft every single year. The list I posted showed that.
Are you telling me that over the last 25 drafts, the fact that the 10th pick has had twice as many All Stars as the 6th pick means nothing to you? That doesn't tell you that scouts/GMS are wrong pretty often and drafts are anything but a sure thing? The most logical reason the 10th has produced better than the 6th is GMs were left with fewer options and were forced a little more-so we take their "expertise" out of the equation and it produces better
Those 4 possibilities that you are missing out on all have a high chance of being role players at best, just like the 10th pick or anything after the top 3.
So back to the point: 6th for Monroe & 10? A proven player plus a draft pick that's only 4 spots down and where statically more stars have come from?
YES
Posted on 6/22/16 at 1:19 pm to geauxjl
We need to take a swing with #6 and try to dump Asik somehow. Only chance of keeping AD long term is if #6 pick (Dunn or Buddy hopefully) pans out.
Posted on 6/22/16 at 2:13 pm to SirWinston
Then who do we play at Center?
Posted on 6/22/16 at 2:57 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Then who do we play at Center?
You can play Ajinca for 15 minutes and let AD play some minutes at center, then look for other bigs in free agency.
Posted on 6/22/16 at 3:39 pm to Jester
quote:
You can play Ajinca for 15 minutes and let AD play some minutes at center, then look for other bigs in free agency.
You don't get rid of Asik with his replacement already lined up imo. We aren't a destination for free agents so you need something in the works already.
You can't rely on Ajinca for extended periods of time and you definitely don't want AD playing the majority of the game at center.
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