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Doolittle's top Center projections (WARP)
Posted on 8/9/13 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 8/9/13 at 4:42 pm
Since this board has followed all of these articles, here's a recap of the last one Insider,
At this point, if you don't realize this list is a WARP projection(using ATH) list-not a top 10 most talented list, then you're doing it wrong. Links to WARP and ATH, etc. can be found in this thread
1)Howard-WARP 13.2.back injuries raise questions-block rate was up last year, suggesting athleticism has not vanished. Intentional fouls on Howard pervert the foul drawing model. His last full healthy season warp was 20.5
2) Drummond-WARP 10.1- projected value comes block/rebound rates, as well as foul drawing and steals. Playing time is questionable (with Detroit's small ball possibility). Free throws are going to hurt him(37%). Raw, but bigger than last year.
3) Cousins-WARP 8.7. Gradually getting more accurate. Fouls, shot selection and turnovers. Maybe new coach uses him differently
4) Horford-WARP 8.3. Can raise his value if he re-adjusts FT stroke (down 9%), making him more jumper oriented.
5) Noah-WARP 8.1.Assist rate expected to drop with Rose back, returned focus to crashing glass.Expects minutes to be better managed.
6)Monroe-WARP 8.0. Down from his first two seasons. Shooting more face up jumpers(with Drummonds rise),only hits 32% of them. Must develop this shot to take advantage of strong passing skills.
7)Jefferson-WARP 7.8. Always on a bad team looking for scoring. Won't get better in Charlotte.
8)JaVale McGee- WARP 7.3. Rates always good, production up into "star role" with increased playing time.
9)Marc Gasol-WARP 7.2. writer's admits this is a strange decline, but system shows him to be better defensively. Regression lies in age/body style, hence athletically worse. Says Grizz can't withstand a 4 win drop off from him.
10) Bosh- WARP 6.8. Not asked to do much. Not an elite rim protector. If Wade's minutes are tightly managed, Bosh might pick up more responsibility.
Others-Anderson Varejao, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan.
Doolittle says subjectively he expects Lopez to be in top 10.block/rebound rates up, but usage rate will be down.
Notables: Hibbert,Bynum
Hibbert has struggled two years out of three. hit 44.9% of two pointers (does not acknowledge bad wrist most of the year). Doolittle admits Hibbert is the type of player who isn't properly measured by any metric right now. A fully healthy Bynum is a stud.
At this point, if you don't realize this list is a WARP projection(using ATH) list-not a top 10 most talented list, then you're doing it wrong. Links to WARP and ATH, etc. can be found in this thread
1)Howard-WARP 13.2.back injuries raise questions-block rate was up last year, suggesting athleticism has not vanished. Intentional fouls on Howard pervert the foul drawing model. His last full healthy season warp was 20.5
2) Drummond-WARP 10.1- projected value comes block/rebound rates, as well as foul drawing and steals. Playing time is questionable (with Detroit's small ball possibility). Free throws are going to hurt him(37%). Raw, but bigger than last year.
3) Cousins-WARP 8.7. Gradually getting more accurate. Fouls, shot selection and turnovers. Maybe new coach uses him differently
4) Horford-WARP 8.3. Can raise his value if he re-adjusts FT stroke (down 9%), making him more jumper oriented.
5) Noah-WARP 8.1.Assist rate expected to drop with Rose back, returned focus to crashing glass.Expects minutes to be better managed.
6)Monroe-WARP 8.0. Down from his first two seasons. Shooting more face up jumpers(with Drummonds rise),only hits 32% of them. Must develop this shot to take advantage of strong passing skills.
7)Jefferson-WARP 7.8. Always on a bad team looking for scoring. Won't get better in Charlotte.
8)JaVale McGee- WARP 7.3. Rates always good, production up into "star role" with increased playing time.
9)Marc Gasol-WARP 7.2. writer's admits this is a strange decline, but system shows him to be better defensively. Regression lies in age/body style, hence athletically worse. Says Grizz can't withstand a 4 win drop off from him.
10) Bosh- WARP 6.8. Not asked to do much. Not an elite rim protector. If Wade's minutes are tightly managed, Bosh might pick up more responsibility.
Others-Anderson Varejao, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan.
Doolittle says subjectively he expects Lopez to be in top 10.block/rebound rates up, but usage rate will be down.
Notables: Hibbert,Bynum
Hibbert has struggled two years out of three. hit 44.9% of two pointers (does not acknowledge bad wrist most of the year). Doolittle admits Hibbert is the type of player who isn't properly measured by any metric right now. A fully healthy Bynum is a stud.
2
Posted on 8/9/13 at 5:26 pm to RonBurgundy
A New Orleans player is not on this list, so I think it is a stupid list
rabble rabble
rabble rabble
Posted on 8/9/13 at 7:19 pm to RonBurgundy
I don't think there's a way to make an advanced stat look any worse than these lists from Doolitle have.
Posted on 8/9/13 at 7:41 pm to eyeran
quote:
I don't think there's a way to make an advanced stat look any worse than these lists from Doolitle have.
I generally like you as a poster
, but this makes little sense. The series of articles is a projection list based on the ATH algorithim which in turns shows WARP. The key going forward is to track this and see if it turns out. LeBron is in the plus 23 range in WARP-light years ahead of anyone else. That's pretty accurate. Combining rates of action (ie rebounding rate, foul drawing rate) along with offensive/defensive rating. Also team role, age,phsyiscal characteristics and historic trends based on player style/size help shape the stat. I've linked WARP explanation, as well as ATH. Basketball Propectus is a good site, check it out if you can. A lot of these metrics their own admission are flawed(WARP points out its own in the link). Defense usually comes into play. His Big Man Barometer was pretty accurate last year.By his own admission(repeatedly) he questions the results of the projected lists. It is not his subjective view.
Bio/Video Metrics (tracking) is next big thing...read about it here. Several teams are on this and most are pretty hush hush about it.
This post was edited on 8/9/13 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 8/9/13 at 8:26 pm to RonBurgundy
I know what warp is and I really enjoy all these advanced numbers, I just don't find it warp very appealing. At least not where its at right now. As for Lebron, there's not an advanced stat on the planet that should be taken seriously that wouldn't have Lebron at the top. Same with Paul or Durant. Its where everyone else is projected that im interested in.
When Drummond and Javale Mcgee are ahead of Marc Gasol, I seriously question the use of that calculation. When Ginobli's ahead of Kobe in the SG rankings and Tony Parker's 13 in PG rankings I can't take them seriously.
There are really smart math guys who drop a new advanced stat almost every week. I don't believe they should all be taken seriously.
When Drummond and Javale Mcgee are ahead of Marc Gasol, I seriously question the use of that calculation. When Ginobli's ahead of Kobe in the SG rankings and Tony Parker's 13 in PG rankings I can't take them seriously.
There are really smart math guys who drop a new advanced stat almost every week. I don't believe they should all be taken seriously.
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