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Diagnosing the Pelicans Offense

Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:04 am
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61435 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:04 am
Interesting article from The Bird Writes comparing the Pelicans to other top offenses. There's really too much to copy and paste, the bottom line is the elite offenses in the league focused on the few play types they were good at and avoided the play types they weren't good at. The Pelicans on the other hand thought it was a good idea to run more of the stuff they're not that good at. The article is well worth a click, but here's the conclusion.

quote:

For the Pelicans to improve on offense, much of the focus has centered on the need for another outside shooter, particularly at the small forward position. Others have called for a more offensive-minded center over Omer Asik, or at least a center who is better at a catch and dunk under the rim. And some even want to send off one of our bevy of guards.

All could help; however, before making big changes like adding personnel, simple changes in the frequency of plays or getting slightly better at certain plays can take this offense to the next level. If the Pelicans simply brought down the frequency of their isolation plays below the statistical minimum and shifted those play to their off-screen plays, their offensive rating would increase by .8 and vault New Orleans to sixth in offensive rating. The Pelicans are just tenths of a point per possession from being elite at points resulting from cuts, roll-man, and post-ups.

Take the foundation already there, run those plays until fans are sick of them, and watch the Pelicans make another jump into the upper echelon of NBA offenses.

LINK


Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38625 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:11 am to
well written...i didnt take the time to parse the stats but if the conclusion is valid, then i agree

it is also one of those times where the eye test (ISOTYREKE!!11!1) jibes with the stats
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25405 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:21 am to
article says a lot about our potential on offense.
we were a pretty good offensive team despite running plays that didnt' work the majority of the time.

with a good coach, and relative health to core players, we will easily win 50 games next year.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38625 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:23 am to
one issue with the stats is that i think synergy only catagorizes a play based on its end result...in other words if a PNR gets shut down, and it degenerates into an ISO at the end of the clock, it counts as an ISO
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15169 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:27 am to
quote:

All could help; however, before making big changes like adding personnel, simple changes in the frequency of plays or getting slightly better at certain plays can take this offense to the next level. If the Pelicans simply brought down the frequency of their isolation plays below the statistical minimum and shifted those play to their off-screen plays, their offensive rating would increase by .8 and vault New Orleans to sixth in offensive rating. The Pelicans are just tenths of a point per possession from being elite at points resulting from cuts, roll-man, and post-ups.


That's all good and well, but one of our most consistently healthy ball-handlers all year is kind of crappy at everything other than attacking from an ISO set.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15169 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:28 am to
quote:

one issue with the stats is that i think synergy only catagorizes a play based on its end result...in other words if a PNR gets shut down, and it degenerates into an ISO at the end of the clock, it counts as an ISO


It also ignores when the play is a set, but the guy with the ball decides to go hero or zero.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61435 posts
Posted on 5/28/15 at 11:31 am to
quote:

one of our most consistently healthy ball-handlers all year is kind of crappy at everything other than attacking from an ISO set.


I still like Tyreke as a 6th man, but his BB IQ surely makes him near or at the top of the trade block for whoever the new coach is. His value also might never be higher for the Pelicans. Injury and lower expectations (just make the playoffs) are what allowed him to showcase himself this year, he may not get as much opportunity going forward.
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