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defense...addition by subtraction?
Posted on 7/21/16 at 10:51 am
Posted on 7/21/16 at 10:51 am
out or the rotation, some of the very worst defensive players in the league:
-gordon
-anderson
-babbitt
-evans (due to injury)
-cole
-perkins
do the statistics support the theory that even if those minutes are taken by replacement-level players on defense, improvement to to be expected? the defensive advanced stats, i will admit, confuse me. what are the metrics that are most predictive of future performance/improvement?
yes we have another year for erman's system to take hold, but pels will have six new rotation players. are they really plus defenders?
-gordon
-anderson
-babbitt
-evans (due to injury)
-cole
-perkins
do the statistics support the theory that even if those minutes are taken by replacement-level players on defense, improvement to to be expected? the defensive advanced stats, i will admit, confuse me. what are the metrics that are most predictive of future performance/improvement?
yes we have another year for erman's system to take hold, but pels will have six new rotation players. are they really plus defenders?
4
Posted on 7/21/16 at 11:18 am to cgrand
also addition by addition
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:07 pm to cgrand
I would be extremely disappointed if we don't drastically improve on defense after adding the players we added. Letting those guys walk was a step in the right direction to improve on defense. But adding the guys we added is what is driving my expectations.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:29 pm to cgrand
The NBA camera data has some defensive stats that shows what FG% a player allows and how much above or below the shooter's average that is.
LINK
TL;DR there should be a lot of improvement but not because of how bad Gordon and Ryno were, but because of how extraordinarily atrocious Norris Cole and Kendrick Perkins were. Also Hill and Galloway appear to be really good based on this stat.
Moore and Gordon are pretty similar using just this stat. Moore allows other players to shoot 0.6% above their average vs. 0.9% for Gordon. So Moore is a little better but not much.
Norris Cole was a HUGE negative defender allowing players to shoot 5.4% above their average. Frazier is about as good as Moore and Galloway is a Plus defender holding people 1% below their average.
Kendrick Perkins is also a HUGE negative defender allowing 4.8% above a players average. Ajinca and Asik held player to 1.2% and 1.3% above their average.
Ryan Anderson actually held people to 0.2% below their average which is much better than Cunningham and last year's Terrence Jones. It's not better than Solomon Hill though who held people to 2.6% below their average.
Alonzo Gee was our starting SF for much of the year and he held players to 0.2% below their average, but as I just mentioned, Hill is even better than that at 2.6% below. Pondexter had no stats for last season but in his time with the Pels the season before he was a little worse than Gee allowing 0.1% above his shooter's average.
AD held opponents to 3.3% below their average, Jrue actually allowed 2.8% above, although it was 0.8% below the year before. So assuming Jrue returns to form our best defensive lineup based on this stat is
Holiday -0.8%
Galloway -1%
Gee -0.2%
Hill -2.6%
AD -3.3%
LINK
TL;DR there should be a lot of improvement but not because of how bad Gordon and Ryno were, but because of how extraordinarily atrocious Norris Cole and Kendrick Perkins were. Also Hill and Galloway appear to be really good based on this stat.
Moore and Gordon are pretty similar using just this stat. Moore allows other players to shoot 0.6% above their average vs. 0.9% for Gordon. So Moore is a little better but not much.
Norris Cole was a HUGE negative defender allowing players to shoot 5.4% above their average. Frazier is about as good as Moore and Galloway is a Plus defender holding people 1% below their average.
Kendrick Perkins is also a HUGE negative defender allowing 4.8% above a players average. Ajinca and Asik held player to 1.2% and 1.3% above their average.
Ryan Anderson actually held people to 0.2% below their average which is much better than Cunningham and last year's Terrence Jones. It's not better than Solomon Hill though who held people to 2.6% below their average.
Alonzo Gee was our starting SF for much of the year and he held players to 0.2% below their average, but as I just mentioned, Hill is even better than that at 2.6% below. Pondexter had no stats for last season but in his time with the Pels the season before he was a little worse than Gee allowing 0.1% above his shooter's average.
AD held opponents to 3.3% below their average, Jrue actually allowed 2.8% above, although it was 0.8% below the year before. So assuming Jrue returns to form our best defensive lineup based on this stat is
Holiday -0.8%
Galloway -1%
Gee -0.2%
Hill -2.6%
AD -3.3%
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:32 pm to TigerinATL
quote:This is why stats like that are fricked. We all know Ryno was not a plus individual defender.
Ryan Anderson actually held people to 0.2% below their average
This post was edited on 7/21/16 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:41 pm to tgr4ever
quote:
We all know Ryno was not a plus individual defender.
Yeah, but did we realize just how bad Cole and Perkins were? I know I was too busy getting mad at Cole's offense last season to notice his defense.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:41 pm to tgr4ever
quote:
This is why stats like that are fricked. We all know Ryno was not a plus individual defender.
He wasn't as terrilbe as everyone makes him out to be.
Could he guard most starting PF? no.
Could he guard most backup PF? yes.
You have to remember he was asked to guard the center a lot b/c we are babying AD and Asik sucks.
I'm not saying he was a great defender or anything, but you can't say he didn't give effort. I thought he was suffice enough for the most part. We expected unreasonable things from him on defense, just to have AD not going up against the bigger 5's of the league.
He's still not a good defender at all as a starting PF in the NBA, but there are certain guys he can match up with good enough.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:49 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
The NBA camera data has some defensive stats that shows what FG% a player allows and how much above or below the shooter's average that is.
LINK
TL;DR there should be a lot of improvement but not because of how bad Gordon and Ryno were, but because of how extraordinarily atrocious Norris Cole and Kendrick Perkins were
Does it take into account when people are left wide arse open?
Posted on 7/21/16 at 2:48 pm to cgrand
(Publicly available) Defensive stats are just tricky.
Consider: According to ESPN's Real +/-, Monta Ellis had a .44 DBPM. E'Twaun Moore was at. -.44. No one in their right mind would say Ellis is a better defender than Moore. Even FG% vs can be problematic.
I would imagine teams have internal tracking stats- ability to keep a driver in front, ability to navigate screens, defensive awareness, etc. All of those things, Pels fans have been pointing to about Gordon, Anderson, Evans for some time w/o any statistical evidence. Even without data, I can't imagine Moore/Hill won't be an improvement in those areas.
Consider: According to ESPN's Real +/-, Monta Ellis had a .44 DBPM. E'Twaun Moore was at. -.44. No one in their right mind would say Ellis is a better defender than Moore. Even FG% vs can be problematic.
I would imagine teams have internal tracking stats- ability to keep a driver in front, ability to navigate screens, defensive awareness, etc. All of those things, Pels fans have been pointing to about Gordon, Anderson, Evans for some time w/o any statistical evidence. Even without data, I can't imagine Moore/Hill won't be an improvement in those areas.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 3:30 pm to corndeaux
quote:
I would imagine teams have internal tracking stats
isnt this the "sportvu" tracking (player cameras)
quote:
Defensive Metrics STATS SportVU® can also track defensive performances, including unique statistics such as drives allowed, offensive rebounds allowed, and stop percentages. This information can be used to deepen the understanding and appreciation of defensive performances that often get lost in traditional box scores.
i guess this info isnt publicly available?
Posted on 7/21/16 at 3:34 pm to cgrand
quote:
isnt this the "sportvu" tracking (player cameras)
Yeah but some teams do custom programing and datamining with it. We get access an executive summary, teams get the whole database and an API.
This post was edited on 7/21/16 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 7/21/16 at 3:47 pm to TigerinATL
back to the individual players, we knew perkins was too old/slow, we knew anderson was just too slow, we knew gordon was just too slow
cole, on the other hand, has no such excuse.
there is a reason a guy getting real minutes on a two-time champion was available in the first place, and why nobody wants him, last year of this year. he is a well below average player in nearly every way, and based on the stats you provided, is a negative on the court
cole, on the other hand, has no such excuse.
there is a reason a guy getting real minutes on a two-time champion was available in the first place, and why nobody wants him, last year of this year. he is a well below average player in nearly every way, and based on the stats you provided, is a negative on the court
Posted on 7/21/16 at 4:23 pm to cgrand
quote:
i guess this info isnt publicly available?
I haven't seen it, but I could be missing it completely. The juicy stuff would be things that Lowe detailed in his Raptors piece a few years back (ghost player movement v actual player movement).
They do have a Defensive Hub on NBA.com that gives Play Type defense (aggregated from Synergy). It says Gordon gave up .87 PPP defending a ball handler in PnR, while Moore was at .77 and Galloway was a .79.
Not too sure you can draw massive conclusions from numbers like that- guys behind them and scheme matter- but it does match the eye test/conventional wisdom that they are better defenders than Gordon.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 4:26 pm to corndeaux
quote:
The juicy stuff would be things that Lowe detailed in his Raptors piece a few years back (ghost player movement v actual player movement).
i think you're right. that article was a neutron bomb when it printed; we've seen nothing similar since, from anybody
Posted on 7/21/16 at 4:26 pm to cgrand
And this is where eye test fails to some degree.
Cole looked like a "good" defender because he tried really hard and would pressure the ball. Which worked in Miami b/c they played an aggressive style of defense w/ athletes behind him to cover up mistakes. Not so much in NO in a different scheme w/ Asik/Anderson/Gee covering in the back
ETA: Cole also looked better because he had more time v backups in Miami. When they started him for Holiday, it as always going to be bad
Cole looked like a "good" defender because he tried really hard and would pressure the ball. Which worked in Miami b/c they played an aggressive style of defense w/ athletes behind him to cover up mistakes. Not so much in NO in a different scheme w/ Asik/Anderson/Gee covering in the back
ETA: Cole also looked better because he had more time v backups in Miami. When they started him for Holiday, it as always going to be bad
This post was edited on 7/21/16 at 4:36 pm
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