Defense doesn't get you paid - nylon calculus

quote:

---

The first chart features linear models, the second exponential ones. The exponential ones are more accurate, especially at the high end of the spectrum (after around +5 points). In each graph, the x-axis represents a player’s Real Plus-Minus. The y-axis is the ‘expected player salary’ given a certain plus minus score (impact in points per 100 possessions). The green line shows the relationship between defensive performance and salary. Red is offense and orange is combined (actual RPM). The overall numbers are a bit suppressed because of rookie salary numbers.

If you’re a player who’s better than the average NBA player by one point per 100 possessions, and that value comes on offense, you’re likely to earn around 20 percent more than your defensive counterpart. And the very elites, around +4 points on offense or defense have a 40 percent difference in expected earnings. The defensive equivalent of a $11 million offensive player, is only expected to make $7 million.

Tony Allen is one of the biggest sufferers of the discrepancy between offensive and defensive players– Allen had an average 3.84 DRPM over the last two season, which should have earned him an approximate $8 million dollar salary even with his minus offense. Allen’s counterparts who had an offensive impact comparable to his defensive impact had an expected salary of around $10 million, which is more than double Allen’s salary.

Even this season, Carmelo Anthony just by his offense alone could have commanded a $18 million salary, but ranked as one of the worst defenders in the league, which should have take away a third of his value. And the same ratio, albeit with a smaller salary, goes for Rudy Gay. Assuming even relative accuracy of these models, if not case-by-case but as a whole, these numbers should massively weigh on contract decisions. 20-40 percent inefficiencies in market value is beyond excessive.

You don’t have to be a fan of adjusted plus minus systems to see that there is a massive discrepancy in how defense is rewarded in salary. And there are definitely opportunities to be had by finding defensive gems either through free agency or the draft.

---