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Will the NetFlix model change TV for better or worse
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:57 am
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:57 am
Kevin Spacey just gave a speech where he lauded the NetFlix model and chided the old guard in the TV/Movie industry.
LINK
On the one hand it sounds great, but on the other hand it sounds like there will be fewer opportunities available and you'll need an established track record to get a deal. What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?
quote:
The two-time Oscar winner (who's also now a two-time Emmy nominee) began his remarks by criticizing the pilot process that dominates the U.S. TV industry. "We went to all the major networks with 'House of Cards,' and every single one was interested in the idea, but every single one wanted us to do a pilot first ... It wasn't out of arrogance that David Fincher and Beau Willimon and I were not interested in having to audition the idea, it was that we wanted to start to tell a story that would take a long time to tell. We were creating a sophisticated, multi-layered story with complex characters who would reveal themselves over time, and relationships that would need space to play out. And the obligation, of course, of doing a pilot, from the writing perspective, is that you have to spend about 45 minutes establishing the characters and create arbitrary cliffhangers and basically prove that what you're setting out to do is going to work."
Spacey then pivoted towards the Netflix model, arguing that the freedom it gives viewers to "binge-watch" is changing their relationship with TV in a profound way.
"Clearly, the success of the Netflix model, releasing the entire season of 'House Of Cards' at once, proved one thing: the audience wants the control. They want the freedom. If they want to binge, as they've been doing on 'House of Cards' and lots of other shows, then we should let them binge," he said.
Spacey argued that the Netflix model could save the television industry from the widespread piracy that has decimated the music industry.
"And through this new form of distribution, we have demonstrated that we have learned the lesson that the music industry didn't learn: give people what they want, when they want it, in the form they want it in, at a reasonable price, and they'll more likely pay for it rather than steal it."
LINK
On the one hand it sounds great, but on the other hand it sounds like there will be fewer opportunities available and you'll need an established track record to get a deal. What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:47 am to TigerinATL
Two things. Has the "netflix model" of releasing shows actually been a big success? Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:51 am to beaverfever
quote:
Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?
Absolutely. Do yourself a favor and watch it asap.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:52 am to beaverfever
quote:
Has the "netflix model" of releasing shows actually been a big success
I don't know if its a "big" success, but yeah, I would say it's successful.
quote:
Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?
Haven't seen it yet, but everyone I know says its really good
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:52 am to beaverfever
quote:
Two things. Has the "netflix model" of releasing shows actually been a big success?
Dunno. All of their original programming appears to be doing well, but that's likely a result of the content moreso than the model. Nothing is stopping people from watching one episode a week, though.
quote:
does anyone recommend House of Cards?
frick yeah.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:55 am to TigerinATL
Advertising revenues will suffer. No incentive to change unless you're going to be Hulu and aggravate your consumers with ads.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:57 am to beaverfever
quote:
does anyone recommend House of Cards?
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:59 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:
Advertising revenues will suffer. No incentive to change unless you're going to be Hulu and aggravate your consumers with ads.
Good. frick ads and what they've become.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:06 am to TigerinATL
I watched that this morning, I have a feeling it may be to late for things like HBO and Network to stop Netflix. Netflix was allowed to grow and flourish and television didn't put a stop to it.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:16 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:
Advertising revenues will suffer.
What we're talking about here is how TV shows get selected. The current model is make a pilot, see if it tests well, if it does order a few more episodes to see how the ratings do, then maybe you commit to pick up the entire season. NetFlix committed to 2 seasons of House of Cards up front. They committed to the 2nd season of Orange is the New Black before even airing the 1st season. They are changing the market for content, think of it like the first big money contract given to quarterbacks, now every QB that wins a SuperBowl wants $100 million. Likewise content creators are going to point to NetFlix and tell the networks to commit up front or they'll sell their show to someone that will. This is kind of a big deal.
As for how successful it's been. They've said that the subscription bump for Arrested Development was enough to pay for the production. House of Cards also is credited with a subscription bump and stock price increase LINK and the emmy nominations give NetFlix a legitimacy they couldn't have bought with $100 million worth of ads.
This post was edited on 8/27/13 at 10:18 am
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:19 am to beaverfever
quote:
Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?
Yes
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:27 am to TigerinATL
quote:
What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?
Committing to proven content creators. Frankly shocked that none of the networks took a chance on this with the pedigree behind it. Then again, there is a reason the networks outside of CBS are in trouble.
One interesting idea that I've seen floated around is putting the failed pilots online for streaming. They could even do a contest with all the pilots and have viewers vote on which one gets an order.
The larger issue is that the network model for scripted tv is broken. People want to watch serialized shows of a high quality. It is near impossible to do so on a 24-27 episode order. No idea on the cost differences, but I think running a few different seasonal shows (12 episodes of x, y, z in the fall/12 of a, b, c in the spring) would help network quality tremendously.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:29 am to TigerinATL
quote:
As for how successful it's been. They've said that the subscription bump for Arrested Development was enough to pay for the production. House of Cards also is credited with a subscription bump and stock price increase LINK and the emmy nominations give NetFlix a legitimacy they couldn't have bought with $100 million worth of ads.
If netflix continues to produce quality shows as they have thus far, I'd be willing to pay even a little bit more, like up to $10, to keep it.
Hell, I pay $14 for HBO, and Netflix offers a tremendously larger amount of content than HBO does.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:38 am to elprez00
I don't see how NetFlix affords it all. What they are currently offering is worth much more than they charge IMO.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:40 am to elprez00
quote:
I'd be willing to pay even a little bit more, like up to $10
wow, a whole extra $1
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:52 am to beaverfever
quote:
I don't see how NetFlix affords it all
NetFlix is up to almost 30 million US subscribers. That's $2.9 Billion in revenue per year. Now some of that goes to pay for bandwidth, but that's still a lot of money to make content deals.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:59 am to Cajun Revolution
quote:
Advertising revenues will suffer
Advertising success has dropped over the decades. Commercials are becoming less and less influential, while being looked at as a nuisance by most people.
Advertising/marketing on tv needs to evolve if they want to stay relevant.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:09 am to TigerinATL
quote:
On the one hand it sounds great, but on the other hand it sounds like there will be fewer opportunities available and you'll need an established track record to get a deal. What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?
That's a good question and I'm not sure there is an answer, but I don't see why both can't coexist. I remember Thom York of Radiohead saying the success of the song Creep, allowed them to do what ever they wanted later one. You could see similar things with TV/Movies. Established guys will get more leyway, while unrpoven talents could go the more traditional route.
quote:
Spacey argued that the Netflix model could save the television industry from the widespread piracy that has decimated the music industry
I really hope that's true, but I'm skeptical that pirates won't just continue to "steal"/watch for free. What I don't know is if 7.99 month is sustainable for new content. For old shows where the production costs have been paid its one thing. They may ultimately have to include commercials or product placement in some way.
The broader point that Spacey makes is the old guard needs to find a way to get out in front if they want to survive.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:33 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
What I don't know is if 7.99 month is sustainable for new content.
I think longer term they need to go to a tiered model and/or raise prices. But for now I think $7.99 might work. HBO gets an average of $7 per subscriber. They have 28 million subscribers in the US vs NetFlix's 29.8 million, although HBO has 114 million worldwide.
NetFlix is up to 39 million worldwide though. It will be interesting to see what comes from releasing new episodes of Breaking Bad in the UK the same night they broadcast in the US. I assume that means the only UK revenue from BB would normally be a trickle of hardcore DVD buyers. They might be able to pick up their international subscriber base if they are able to monetize US shows internationally that otherwise would only sell at home.
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