I don't know. It seems like Lincoln is going to go the way of War Horse. Overly sentimental contrived purpose that's supposed to garner some type of emotion.
The reviews say just the opposite. Yeah, Spielberg has some sentimental stuff in this movie. You're gonna get that because it's Spielberg. But it is not as prevalent in this film as it is in most of his films.
Also...this is an ensemble film that is basically a who's who of character actors and A-listers from the ranks of film and television. It's an actor's movie and, if you know anything about the Academy, the Academy's main voting bloc are actors.
People like to blame the old, conservative vote for keeping Brokeback Mountain from winning Best Picture but, in actuality, it was the actors who pushed Crash over the top. That was an ensemble piece and, anytime a movie like that is nominated for Best Picture, you had better watch out.
I'm not saying Lincoln should be considered a frontrunner but don't count it out because of your preconceived notions about the film. I have read just about every review that has been released thus far and it isn't your typical Spielberg fair and it is most definitely NOT a War Horse-type movie.