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Message
re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS
Posted on 1/10/13 at 9:03 am to DestrehanTiger
Posted on 1/10/13 at 9:03 am to DestrehanTiger
quote:
Why not just kill Dany and Viserys
At the risk of contradicting myself-if we know nothing else about Varys, its that he's clever enough to always hedge his bets. If something should happen to Aegon before he is old enough to claim the throne, a male heir borne of either one of them would be his only hope to gain control of the realm. Only a Targ would carry enough stroke to challenge the Baratheon/ Lannister line of succession - the secret truth Jon Arryn had to die for Varys to keep it so, until the time was right.
Shark -
I believe Aegon was always plan A myself, but I still struggle with him being an imposter in that case - even a Blackfyre. It doesn't make sense to me that Varys would risk all for an imposter, unless he is just another pawn in his ultimate endgame...or he really is Aegon Targaryen.
Regardless, I have little doubt Varys would back Dany and sacrifice Aegon if it came down to it. Illyrio may be 100% for Aegon, but Varys is 100% Varys.
"I serve the realm"
Pffttt.
ETA: anyone heard from our beloved Darkstar fan? After his mention in the recent release of the Arienne chapter, I fear he is in need of IV fluids... Multiple releases of his own...
This post was edited on 1/10/13 at 9:23 am
1
Posted on 1/10/13 at 9:02 pm to OMLandshark
Something thats been eating away at me lately is Moat Cailin.
It is the key to the North's power and is what has kept them virtually autonomous and for all intents and purposes a sovereign state. It is one of the buggest reasons that no army has ever marched from the south and taken the north though many have tried. Every king in the north and every warden of the north has had it's importance drilled into their heads since infancy.
Yet this "key to the north" is described as a jumble of ruins falling in on itself. Now I am just a blue collar boy from Louisiana and I know little about the strategies and tactics of medieval warfare but I do believe that I wouldn't allow a castle of that magnitude of importance fall into such a state of disrepair.
Why hasn't every Stark of winterfell made sure to repair and man that fortress. It should be the second mightiest fortress in the north, second only to winterfell herself. It could've been one of the most prestigious titles in the realm. "Lord of Cailin, Keeper to The Key to The North". A title worthy of the second sons of the Starks themselves, or to the greatest knight/noble warriors of the north much like The Knight of The Gate in the Vale.
Why would the Stark's allow it to become what it is?
It is the key to the North's power and is what has kept them virtually autonomous and for all intents and purposes a sovereign state. It is one of the buggest reasons that no army has ever marched from the south and taken the north though many have tried. Every king in the north and every warden of the north has had it's importance drilled into their heads since infancy.
Yet this "key to the north" is described as a jumble of ruins falling in on itself. Now I am just a blue collar boy from Louisiana and I know little about the strategies and tactics of medieval warfare but I do believe that I wouldn't allow a castle of that magnitude of importance fall into such a state of disrepair.
Why hasn't every Stark of winterfell made sure to repair and man that fortress. It should be the second mightiest fortress in the north, second only to winterfell herself. It could've been one of the most prestigious titles in the realm. "Lord of Cailin, Keeper to The Key to The North". A title worthy of the second sons of the Starks themselves, or to the greatest knight/noble warriors of the north much like The Knight of The Gate in the Vale.
Why would the Stark's allow it to become what it is?
Posted on 1/10/13 at 10:07 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Then why marry her off to Drogo? Drogo could have lived for quite some time
Marrying her to Drogo always had the potential to backfire if Dany/Viserys ever convinced him to cross the Narrow Sea.
Same thing with the assassination attempt- if anything it pushed Drogo to want to move on Westeros.
I think the assassination attempt was Varys trying to spur Drogo on. Varys hates the Lannisters and would have known they were planning to take out Robert. But Aegon wasnt ready, so go get the Targaryen heir to come wreck shite with her Dothraki army.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 10:26 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
Why hasn't every Stark of winterfell made sure to repair and man that fortress.
The poor foundation soil causes the fortress to constantly fall into disrepair making upkeep incredibly expensive.
It's remote location and horrible environment makes manning, expanding, and maintaining the fortress expensive both in materials and lives.
Overbuilding/adding on the existing fortress would overload the swampy soil's bearing capacity leading to the collapse of the entire structure.
The North is a poor kingdom, possibly the poorest kingdom of the 7 and lacks the finances to upgrade, man, and maintain the stronghold.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 11:32 pm to kingbob
quote:[
It's remote location and horrible environment makes manning, expanding, and maintaining the fortress expensive both in materials and lives.
The northmen are a hard, honorable and proud people. If the Stark in Winterfell were to emphasize its importance and place the rule in the hands of a man the likes of Greatjon Umber or whoever is his equal in whatever time period we are speaking of. Or even a second son of the stark name. Make it a title of honor, which wouldnt be hard considering its importance, instead of an ancestral claim. And young nobles would be racing to be the next in line to command and he would only need 50 or so archers and a handful of spearman to hold it. You could half that number in times of peace. Cavalry is useless so no need for horses. The crannogmen could supply most of the fighting force. They know how to live off that land and how to kill with that land.
I dont see how this would be an impossible or even a particularly hard undertaking.
quote:
The poor foundation soil causes the fortress to constantly fall into disrepair making upkeep incredibly expensive.
It doesnt have to be large nor does it have to be stone. The original keep was wood and it was allowed to rot away. Moat cailin is located in the neck which is a part of the north which has strong historical ties with the nights watch who must keep the forest cut away from the wall. The north has practically an endless supply of wood and moat cailin is located right in the middle of a lot of it. Regular maintenance would not be that great a feat.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 12:23 am to 19
Varys is Aegon's uncle. Remember how Ned and Tyrion noted how different Varys could look in his disguises? By some kind of magic he is hiding his real eye color and will reveal that by the end of Winds.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 12:41 am to NIH
quote:
Varys is Aegon's uncle. Remember how Ned and Tyrion noted how different Varys could look in his disguises? By some kind of magic he is hiding his real eye color and will reveal that by the end of Winds.
Has Varys eye color been mentioned? He could already have purple eyes.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 12:42 am to NIH
quote:
By some kind of magic he is hiding his real eye color and will reveal that by the end of Winds.
Melisandre did say that a simple glamoure is easy and that many posess the power to do it but it can be seen through by an observant person. Now that I think of it Tyrion is really the only person one would call "observant" thats been in kings landing. And he has beenfamiliar with varys for most of his life with tywin being hand and then tyrion himself later becoming a prominent figure in KL. So he had no reason to actually LOOK.
With Aegon he knew there was a mystery and he had nothing to do but solve it so he did but Varys never really gave any reason to doubt his background. He was always forthcoming with his history and it was as sound of a alias as a person could manage plus even if he did have motive to dig deeper he didnt have the time.
It is also very believable that varys possesses some magical ability, he would be related to bloodraven after all.
It is very plausible that he has been using a weak magic to hide his eyes and change his disguises.
I would personally prefer that he is just a smart sneaky son of a bitch though. Or reveal it in a way that the other characters believe it to be sorcery but the readers know it to be mundane. Like how the damphair brings people back to life with CPR but they think its trouhh the power of the drowned god
Posted on 1/11/13 at 12:53 am to CottonWasKing
quote:
I would personally prefer that he is just a smart sneaky son of a bitch though. Or reveal it in a way that the other characters believe it to be sorcery but the readers know it to be mundane. Like how the damphair brings people back to life with CPR but they think its trouhh the power of the drowned god
I agree. However, I don't think Varys is a Targ. I think he just wants the Targs in power because he recognizes them as the only ones strong enough to hold the realm together, and Varys serves the realm above all else.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 1:02 am to kingbob
If Varys served the Targs he wouldn't have sent the two siblings on the Dothraki plains to die as he did Ilyrio. That and he wouldn't have killed Ser Kevan if he wanted the best for the realm.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 1:09 am to kingbob
quote:
I agree. However, I don't think Varys is a Targ. I think he just wants the Targs in power because he recognizes them as the only ones strong enough to hold the realm together, and Varys serves the realm above all else.
If that were truly the case he wouldve whisked ned awayout of the black cells. Allow the war for the north and stannis's uprising be fought by the most capable military commander in the game, allow him to win the throne for another baratheon once again. Allow time for another harvest before winter let the realm prosper for a few years then have aegon married to shireen after stannis died "peacefully" in his sleep.
The realm sheds less blood. The realm stays in tact and Aegon comes into a prosperous and peaceful kingdom.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 1:38 am to CottonWasKing
no way Aegon can come to power in a prosperous, peaceful realm. There must be chaos and disunity or a ruler with no possible heirs for him to come to power. If peace, tranquility, unity, and prosperity were allowed to be established prior to Aegon and his army arriving, he would be thrown back into the sea by a united army. The 7 (or at least 6) Kingdoms would stand united against a common foe.
This way, they are all at war with each other and Aegon can come in as just another competing bidder. All he has to do is win a few great houses to his side (having one in the bag helps), and he tips the entire balance of power completely in his favor with just a handful of modest military victories.
Varys knows the Targs are what's best for the realm (there is simply no way that Cersei or her children, especially Joffrey, can be allowed to sit on the thrown for a lifetime), and chaos is the only environment in which Targs can regain power.
This way, they are all at war with each other and Aegon can come in as just another competing bidder. All he has to do is win a few great houses to his side (having one in the bag helps), and he tips the entire balance of power completely in his favor with just a handful of modest military victories.
Varys knows the Targs are what's best for the realm (there is simply no way that Cersei or her children, especially Joffrey, can be allowed to sit on the thrown for a lifetime), and chaos is the only environment in which Targs can regain power.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 10:09 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Dany I think arrives in Dorne (with Tyrion in tow) near the end of the novel, with Varys counting Dany coming to King's Landing to claim her rightful throne, where he will try to capture her dragons and try to kill Dany. Whispers of the Fall of the Wall come South, but most just think its the Wildings that will merely give Littlefinger, Stannis, and Jon Snow more trouble. Dany then decides to march North (at the advice of Tyrion) to defend the Seven Kingdoms.
Exactly how I see it playing out. It will eventually be dragons (fire) vs ice (white walkers)
Posted on 1/11/13 at 10:26 am to Gugich22
Will y'all sum up everything Varys did in the last 2 books? I don't seem to recall any mention of him within the last 2.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 10:30 am to hiltacular
quote:
Will y'all sum up everything Varys did in the last 2 books? I don't seem to recall any mention of him within the last 2.
Well he killed Ser Kevan for starters, and he's been actively plotting for Aegon's rise to the throne.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 11:32 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Well he killed Ser Kevan for starters, and he's been actively plotting for Aegon's rise to the throne.
Ever since Game of Thrones.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 11:57 am to Gugich22
Is the theory that Viserys is a Blackfyre killed? I kind of had it in the back of my head that his end game was to have Aegon, nephew IMO, retake the 7 kingdoms alongside Dany. Remember many believed that King Daeron was not the son of Aegon the Unworthy. So Aegon marrying Dany would serve to reunite Blackfyre, legitimate rulers of the 7 kingdoms, with the Targs, who everyone thinks is the rightful rulers.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 12:03 pm to Mr. Wayne
quote:
Is the theory that Viserys is a Blackfyre killed? I kind of had it in the back of my head that his end game was to have Aegon, nephew IMO, retake the 7 kingdoms alongside Dany. Remember many believed that King Daeron was not the son of Aegon the Unworthy. So Aegon marrying Dany would serve to reunite Blackfyre, legitimate rulers of the 7 kingdoms, with the Targs, who everyone thinks is the rightful rulers.
I don't think that Varys ever intends for Aegon to know of his Blackfyre ancestry. The only two people I think who know Aegon's true identity are him and Illyrio. It will just be his inside joke elliminating the Targaryens. If he really cared for the Targaryens, he wouldn't have pitted Aerys and Rhaegar against each other, and would have sided with Rhaegar. Doesn't really make sense for him to be supporting Rhaegar's son when Varys was merely a thorn to Rhaegar.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 2:10 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
believable that varys possesses some magical ability, he would be related to bloodraven after all.
...or Varys IS Bloodraven, warged into a run-away Unsullied trainee
Duhn Duhn DUUUUHHHHNNNNN.
Which reminds me:
all this talk of eye-color and Targ blood.
Does anyone remember a particularly important player of the game who has two different colored eyes.
Shark can't hear my evil snicker...
Posted on 1/11/13 at 2:39 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I don't think that Varys ever intends for Aegon to know of his Blackfyre ancestry.
I agree
quote:
If he really cared for the Targaryens, he wouldn't have pitted Aerys and Rhaegar against each other, and would have sided with Rhaegar
Excellent point. Though I do think he wouldn't mind bringing the lines together with Aegon and Dany.
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