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Your Bracket Theories
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:24 pm
Got any overriding bracket theories you almost always follow (either for good or for bad)?
Do you hedge on underdog bets? For instance, if you have an upset winning round one and then love their matchup the next round, will you pick them to go through or will you hedge your bet and pick the other team? I usually hedge cause I have no balls.
Any teams you always pick too far or have losing too early? I ALWAYS have Nova going too far. I also always seem to like WVU and Iowa State. For too early it's probably Duke (out of pure hatred) and Florida.
What type of scoring do you like? I'm playing around with my scoring this year. I hate that with the incremental round scoring the only thing that matters is the Championship Game and Final Four when the only thing most care about is a crazy first round. Think I'm gonna look into the bonus upset scoring or maybe something that makes the first round more valuable. The only thing people talk about are their upsets but the only thing that matters in most scoring is the later games.
Also are you multiple brackets or just one for all pools?
Do you hedge on underdog bets? For instance, if you have an upset winning round one and then love their matchup the next round, will you pick them to go through or will you hedge your bet and pick the other team? I usually hedge cause I have no balls.
Any teams you always pick too far or have losing too early? I ALWAYS have Nova going too far. I also always seem to like WVU and Iowa State. For too early it's probably Duke (out of pure hatred) and Florida.
What type of scoring do you like? I'm playing around with my scoring this year. I hate that with the incremental round scoring the only thing that matters is the Championship Game and Final Four when the only thing most care about is a crazy first round. Think I'm gonna look into the bonus upset scoring or maybe something that makes the first round more valuable. The only thing people talk about are their upsets but the only thing that matters in most scoring is the later games.
Also are you multiple brackets or just one for all pools?
11
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:25 pm to FootballNostradamus
I always go big or go home. Pick lots of upsets. If I ever win a bracket challenge, I will look like a damn genius.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:29 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
I always go big or go home. Pick lots of upsets. If I ever win a bracket challenge, I will look like a damn genius.
I usually do 2 brackets, one normal and one 2007 CFB crazy, like you said, if it ever happens I'm def gonna be on SportsCenter.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:31 pm to FootballNostradamus
I have never come close.
I have no theory based on success.
pin the tail on the donkey would do as well as I have done.
I have no theory based on success.
pin the tail on the donkey would do as well as I have done.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:38 pm to FootballNostradamus
I have a theory that I use after years of statical analysis. If I told you I'd have to kill you.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:38 pm to sassyLSU
Guard play and defense.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:42 pm to Nation of Buga
quote:
Guard play and defense.
There ya go... BUT ALWAYS put Duke in the Final four... The NCAA,CBS and the refs love them... RATINGS... I really hope its a UK-Duke Final and UK does to Duke what UNLV did to them in 1990............
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:43 pm to dukke v
quote:
BUT ALWAYS put Duke in the Final four...
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:46 pm to FootballNostradamus
It needs to be incremental to reward picking teams going deep, but literally doubling points for every round goes too far. I like upset points, where you get 11 for a 14 beating a 3.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:50 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
It needs to be incremental to reward picking teams going deep, but literally doubling points for every round goes too far. I like upset points, where you get 11 for a 14 beating a 3.
I like that theory. I wonder if you could carry that through for every round or would it mess things up?
Like if regardless of round you got the difference between the seeds as your points for each game. Would that work?
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:51 pm to goldenbadger08
Don't pick the favorite to win it all. If they do, so many other people will have them in your bracket that you'd have to nail the rest to win. If you go with a Wisconsin or Arizona to win it all, which they can, and they do, then you're probably going to win your bracket.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 2:55 pm to JG77056
Look at the strength of the seeds.. teams that should be higher and those that should be lower. 2014 UConn is a perfect example.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 3:20 pm to FootballNostradamus
When in doubt, pick the team with the best player. I don't think it's much more successful than picking a winner out of my arse though. But I'm sticking to it, dammit.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 3:25 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
What type of scoring do you like?
Seed multiplier or GTFO
Posted on 3/14/15 at 3:29 pm to JG77056
quote:
Don't pick the favorite to win it all. If they do, so many other people will have them in your bracket that you'd have to nail the rest to win.
Especially this year. Kentucky is going to be a huge favorite. If you are looking to win some money, you will have a much better shot just hoping they trip up.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 3:38 pm to FootballNostradamus
Have some dignity and only make one bracket.
You need to have a separation pick. Find a team you believe in that no one else really does, and pick them to go far. Or pick against one of the favorites. Look, over half of the brackets will have Kentucky winning the title. If you pick UK to win the title, you need to have something in your bracket that is different from all the rest of the UK people. It's easier to get one big thing right than tons of little games.
The 1st 2 rounds don't really matter. Your bracket will win or lose based on how many Final Four and Elite Eight teams you have right. Feel free to get cute early, and pick teams you like. But late? That's when you have to be honest with yourself. You better have a good damn reason to pick a 1 or a 2 seed to not make the Sweet 16, though.
You need to have a separation pick. Find a team you believe in that no one else really does, and pick them to go far. Or pick against one of the favorites. Look, over half of the brackets will have Kentucky winning the title. If you pick UK to win the title, you need to have something in your bracket that is different from all the rest of the UK people. It's easier to get one big thing right than tons of little games.
The 1st 2 rounds don't really matter. Your bracket will win or lose based on how many Final Four and Elite Eight teams you have right. Feel free to get cute early, and pick teams you like. But late? That's when you have to be honest with yourself. You better have a good damn reason to pick a 1 or a 2 seed to not make the Sweet 16, though.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 4:35 pm to FootballNostradamus
I do 2 brackets one with mostly the favorites winning with a few 10s and 11s.
I do one where I pick at least 3 # 13s, 2 #13s, and 1 #14 to win and sometimes I take them into the sweet 16.
I've won 2 of the least 5 years in the bracket I play in my area (usually about 150-200 people play with a buy in of 20 for each bracket) with up to 3 brackets per player.
In the past these teams have been money for me
Northwestern st
VCU
George mason
Ohio
And a few others I can't remember.
I do one where I pick at least 3 # 13s, 2 #13s, and 1 #14 to win and sometimes I take them into the sweet 16.
I've won 2 of the least 5 years in the bracket I play in my area (usually about 150-200 people play with a buy in of 20 for each bracket) with up to 3 brackets per player.
In the past these teams have been money for me
Northwestern st
VCU
George mason
Ohio
And a few others I can't remember.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 4:49 pm to FootballNostradamus
I pick my initial bracket using WSJ Blind Bracket and then adjust accordingly from there based on historical upset trends and gut feelings.
Basically, I'm clueless.
Basically, I'm clueless.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 4:55 pm to bulldog95
quote:
VCU
ALWAYS money
Posted on 3/14/15 at 4:59 pm to FootballNostradamus
normally i do vegas odds and stuff like that and am ranked high going into the sweet 16 and shite the bed
this year i may just ask my wife what mascot she likes better since that seems to be a more proven method
this year i may just ask my wife what mascot she likes better since that seems to be a more proven method
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