Would you hedge this bet

frick NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Yea, I accident hit submit. Thanks for the insight.

Which one? The first one or the one I'm contemplating? Why is it dumb IYO?

I would hedge.

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Let it ride, you always lose value in the long term when you hedge. You only hedge future bets with + ML, which isn't the case here.

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I hedge all the time. A standard play of mine is the 4-team ML parlay where my 4th game is later on in the day (late enough to be sure that the first 3 games will be finished).

So, basically it's just a 3 game ML parlay. The 4th game is just a throwaway game. Basically it's the late game that has the biggest odds. So after the first three legs of my parlay hit, I toss a small bet (it varies based on how big the odds are, of course) on the opposite team that I have in my 4th leg.

So if I take Tennessee, LSU, UGA, and UF in the ML parlay. With UF being my night game and probably playing a lesser team, say, Troy. If and when LSU, UGA, and Tennessee win, I put a little something straight up on Troy.

This is the only play I do where I'll put in a hedge, but I do it as a matter of course. I especially like it in college hoops. Tennis too. I had a 25 hedge on Andy Roddick against Federer a couple months ago and it hit after that scrub Andy Roddick somehow beat Federer in a tennis match. The odds were so big that I made twice as much with the hedge hitting as I would have off the parlay itself (25 is my bookie's minimum, so this can happen). But the Roddick example was of course just pure luck.

Good God. You're as sick and twisted as I am.

what was the point of the first bet if you were gonna just hedge when it looks great?


or did you just bet it so you can hedge?

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what was the point of the first bet if you were gonna just hedge when it looks great?


or did you just bet it so you can hedge?

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The only reason I bet futures is for later hedging.

I put 5 bucks on LSU to win it all in college basketball in 2006 at 75-1. Once they got to the final four, I hedged it out...made it a win-win.

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I think this is a rigged up league and they don't want it to end in 5. If they go back to OKC, I'm not sure I like Miami. if Miami wins I go into my Wimbledon betting up 125. As you have to lay some big numbers on tennis bets, don't want minus 600 as my start point.

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1. MJ ended several finals in 5 games. It ain't rigged. Professional sports are very very very difficult to rig.

College sports, on the other hand, are often rigged. Seriously. Lots and lots of small conference college basketball games have a point shaver or two on the court.

And it even happens occasionally in CFB. Hawaii vs. UNLV last year was UNQUESTIONABLY rigged. My friend and I knew this just because of the nonsensical outcome of the game. The result of the game made no sense. It was like four standard deviations away from how the game should have turned out. It was a wider variance than I'd ever seen. UNLV was literally the second or third worst team in CFB. They were losing all their games by 40 points. And then they beat Hawaii by 17? And the moneyline moved about 900 points in the hours preceding the game. DEFINITELY fixed. We weren't surprised to hear several months later that Hawaii's QB was suspected of taking money. I lost like $1,200 on that game. I'd love to kick the shite out of that ponytailed hawaii QB. What a scumbag.

2) This is my first year dabbling in tennis, but I'm doing pretty well. I'm up about five hundy since I started, which was in February or March. Underdogs are the better play in tennis. The odds for the favorites are way inflated. It's as if Vegas is double dog daring you to take the favorite.

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Good God. You're as sick and twisted as I am.

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Sick and twisted because of my 4 game ML parlay play strategy?

Remind me one day to tell you about my favorite play: "The Moneyline Backup". Or shite I'll do it now.
Assume Bama-7 @ Auburn. I think Bama will cover. So I put 100 on Bama to cover. But then I also put 110 on Bama on the moneyline, which would be in the -250 range.

Three things can happen:
Bama wins by less than 7: the ML bet covers the spread bet plus juice. I push.

Bama wins by more than 7: I win 210

Bama loses outrigh: I lose 110 + 275 == 385

The idea is to never let the third option happen. Or at least minimize it as much as possible.