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Will the NFL ever embrace analytics the way MLB and the NBA have?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:43 pm
The NFL seems to be stuck in the Stone Age regarding player scouting and team building, especially when it comes to QBs.
They seem to fall in love with combine numbers and size. At what point do they start to look at things from a more analytical point of view?
I get that there are some positions that combine numbers and size will really be a determining factor, but some of the skill positions seem like they could be looked at differently.
For example, Blaine Gabbert was a top 10 pick at QB, and nothing in his portfolio warranted that pick, except for his size and his arm. It was obvious watching film that he wasn't a top 10 franchise QB.
I think some of these teams that keep constantly drafting flops at the position could use a different point of view.
They seem to fall in love with combine numbers and size. At what point do they start to look at things from a more analytical point of view?
I get that there are some positions that combine numbers and size will really be a determining factor, but some of the skill positions seem like they could be looked at differently.
For example, Blaine Gabbert was a top 10 pick at QB, and nothing in his portfolio warranted that pick, except for his size and his arm. It was obvious watching film that he wasn't a top 10 franchise QB.
I think some of these teams that keep constantly drafting flops at the position could use a different point of view.
6
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:44 pm to Remote Controlled
I think you're extremely naïve if you don't think it's already happening
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:48 pm to TigerBait1127
I'm not saying it isn't. Im sure teams like the Patriots have already delved into it.
However, a team like the Jets sure could use a different approach to things.
However, a team like the Jets sure could use a different approach to things.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 5:54 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
It was obvious watching film that he wasn't a top 10 franchise QB.
You realize this isn't analytics don't you? not a good example.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:00 pm to SoFunnyItsNot
Yes, bad example. A cursory review of his numbers vs. Mizzou's record when he was the starter would be a better example. Coupled with the fact he was throwing to an All-American WR 70% of the time.
I'm just trying to figure out why teams keep making poor decisions regarding QBs in the draft.
It almost doesn't make sense, these guys are supposed to be the best at analyzing talent, yet they seem to fail every year.
I'm just trying to figure out why teams keep making poor decisions regarding QBs in the draft.
It almost doesn't make sense, these guys are supposed to be the best at analyzing talent, yet they seem to fail every year.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:02 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
I'm just trying to figure out why teams keep making poor decisions regarding QBs in the draft.
desperation. i think at this point teams are just praying for the best possible scenario when drafting a guy like EJ Manuel
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:08 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
It almost doesn't make sense, these guys are supposed to be the best at analyzing talent, yet they seem to fail every year.
Evaluating talent isn't easy, there are struggles with it in all sports. It's also not an analytics thing.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:17 pm to Remote Controlled
Around draft time you definetly hear about completion % under pressure, in the pocket, outside the pocket, etc. CBs have a ton of coverage stats. Pass rushers as well. Teams are using it.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:18 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:This seems like an issue that is less of a "limited use" of analytics and more of a "limited generalizability" of college analytics to pros.
I'm just trying to figure out why teams keep making poor decisions regarding QBs in the draft.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:31 pm to buckeye_vol
I don't know how analytics really work for evaluating talent in basketball but I have to think evaluating a qb draftee is enormously different from looking at a baseball prospect. There are obviously a lot of variables in an AB but it's still somewhat of a repeatable concept and can provide a lot of information about a hitter. Stats can provide a filter for whether or not a QB is a clown, but it seems like they are almost irrelevant in translating from CFB to the NFL.
Kind of along the same lines of this topic, there is definitely a sentiment out there that conventional in-game decision making by coaches is way off. Kicking FGs in almost all 4th and goal situations is supposed to be really stupid, as is punting pretty much anywhere past midfield. I'm kind of surprised that people like Chip Kelly or Mike Leach haven't transformed the thought process around that like they have for offensive strategy.
Kind of along the same lines of this topic, there is definitely a sentiment out there that conventional in-game decision making by coaches is way off. Kicking FGs in almost all 4th and goal situations is supposed to be really stupid, as is punting pretty much anywhere past midfield. I'm kind of surprised that people like Chip Kelly or Mike Leach haven't transformed the thought process around that like they have for offensive strategy.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:33 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
I'm just trying to figure out why teams keep making poor decisions regarding QBs in the draft.
because there are not enough guys who can play QB well, so some teams are going to end up desperate
You have to have somebody
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:41 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
I'm just trying to figure out why teams keep making poor decisions regarding QBs in the draft.
Analytics, they realize taking QB under the current CBA isn't the same as the previous. The risk is a lot less, and the pay off is much greater.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:47 pm to gthog61
An elite NFL QB is basically a unicorn. There are damn near 320 million people in this country, 14,000 high school football teams, 120+ FBS schools, and there are only about 8 elite QBs at any given time in the NFL. It's mind blowing.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:53 pm to Remote Controlled
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 6:56 pm
Posted on 8/18/15 at 6:59 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
This seems like an issue that is less of a "limited use" of analytics and more of a "limited generalizability" of college analytics to pros.
Yup. Scouts are trying to project how good a player will be at chess by watching him play checkers.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:10 pm to SwaggerCopter
Screw analytics
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:15 pm to SwaggerCopter
That probably has more to do with it than anything.
Seems like there were way better QB prospects 15 years ago than there are now, and that probably speaks more about the college game and the offenses they have moved towards.
Would a guy like Jeff Garcia even get a look in today's league?
Seems like guys that come up the UFA/CFL route don't get the chances they used to.
Seems like there were way better QB prospects 15 years ago than there are now, and that probably speaks more about the college game and the offenses they have moved towards.
Would a guy like Jeff Garcia even get a look in today's league?
Seems like guys that come up the UFA/CFL route don't get the chances they used to.
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:16 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:how? We are seeing NFL qbs start their rookie years now. That was unheard of until about 5 years ago
Seems like there were way better QB prospects 15 years ago than there are now,
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:22 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
For example, Blaine Gabbert was a top 10 pick at QB, and nothing in his portfolio warranted that pick, except for his size and his arm. It was obvious watching film that he wasn't a top 10 franchise QB.
Lol.
Your point is about using metrics and analytics. Gabbert's analytics would have been sparkling coming out of college. It was nothing about his size and arm.
Then you use tape as an example of why he wasn't a top pick when your point is about analytics?
Posted on 8/18/15 at 7:25 pm to Remote Controlled
quote:
Coupled with the fact he was throwing to an All-American WR 70% of the time.
This is why the use of analytics (actual numbers, not whatever you are talking about) is limited in football. Football is much more of a team game with many elements that can not be concretely and objectively described with numbers. Any accounting for how team play and to a great extent level of competition affects individual numbers for the things that even can be measured is subjective.
Baseball as a sport is perfectly built to be broken down by statistics. In basketball a goal is a goal and percentage of shots scored from a certain distance can be more accurately compared. As it relies more on team play than baseball, I think statistics are a little less reliable than baseball.
This post was edited on 8/18/15 at 7:27 pm
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