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So what has caused Chris Archers rough first half
Posted on 7/15/16 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 7/15/16 at 12:57 pm
So chris archer is rocking a 4.66 era, 4.28 fip, and 3.66 xfip worth only 1.2 WAR and that's a far cry from where he has been. So what's the issue?
Its not that hes having issues with walks as his k-bb% is the second highest of his career. Hes not losing any velo as thats been career average. He is getting rocked. His hr/fb ratio is way up, his babip is way up as is his baa. But here's the thing, his batted ball numbers still point to his career average with only a slight increase in LD% and slight decrease in GB%.
So what the frick is causing him to get rocked if, for the most part, everything else is in line for him
Its not that hes having issues with walks as his k-bb% is the second highest of his career. Hes not losing any velo as thats been career average. He is getting rocked. His hr/fb ratio is way up, his babip is way up as is his baa. But here's the thing, his batted ball numbers still point to his career average with only a slight increase in LD% and slight decrease in GB%.
So what the frick is causing him to get rocked if, for the most part, everything else is in line for him
This post was edited on 7/15/16 at 1:00 pm
3
Posted on 7/15/16 at 1:06 pm to WestCoastAg
Bad luck, bad location, hitters have more video on him.... idk....
Posted on 7/15/16 at 1:11 pm to tduecen
I think I'm leaning towards frick luck. If hitters were learning how to hit him, I feel like we'd see his other peripherals be affected as well
This post was edited on 7/15/16 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 7/15/16 at 1:54 pm to WestCoastAg
Hard hit % up marginally, but not enough to explain 30 points of BABIP and almost double HR/FB ratio.
He's also walking marginally more people and falling behind more often, causing his pitch count to balloon. I saw a stat the other day about his high number of 20 pitch innings, let me see if I can find it.
Edited to add my conclusion: mostly bad luck. Still think he's a 3 to 3.50 ERA pitcher, which is pretty freaking good in the AL East.
He's also walking marginally more people and falling behind more often, causing his pitch count to balloon. I saw a stat the other day about his high number of 20 pitch innings, let me see if I can find it.
Edited to add my conclusion: mostly bad luck. Still think he's a 3 to 3.50 ERA pitcher, which is pretty freaking good in the AL East.
This post was edited on 7/15/16 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 7/15/16 at 1:56 pm to WestCoastAg
How much worse is the Tampa Defense? stuff that would result in an out last year going for a hit?
Posted on 7/15/16 at 2:10 pm to tduecen
quote:
How much worse is the Tampa Defense? stuff that would result in an out last year going for a hit?
Team wise their BABIP against is up .22 points this year. Hard to say if that is more on the pitchers or the defense, but worse defense could explain some of Archer's struggles. Although, not the homers or the walks.
Fangraphs has them near the bottom in their team wide "Def" stat, last year they were middle of the pack.
This post was edited on 7/15/16 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 7/15/16 at 2:15 pm to WestCoastAg
meatballs left right in the middle of the plate
his location has been horrendous the 5-6 times I've seen him
his location has been horrendous the 5-6 times I've seen him
Posted on 7/15/16 at 2:19 pm to tduecen
I think it's down this year. Last year they were average and I think, when I was looking at team defense, they were closer to the bottom
Posted on 7/15/16 at 2:21 pm to The Seaward
quote:this is what I was looking at
Fangraphs has them near the bottom in their team wide "Def" stat, last year they were middle of the pack
Posted on 7/15/16 at 2:35 pm to The Seaward
Their defense is definitely worse this year. They've played the majority of their season without Kiermaier, who is one of the best defenders in all of baseball. Brad Miller and Logan Morrison are new starters that are bad defensively.
Posted on 7/15/16 at 3:10 pm to WestCoastAg
Ok so a worse defense, combined with more HR allowed, explains a lot...
Posted on 7/15/16 at 3:34 pm to tduecen
I guess the more homerun part is interesting because it's not like his LD% is crazy
Posted on 7/15/16 at 4:14 pm to DallasTiger45
quote:
They've played the majority of their season without Kiermaier, who is one of the best defenders in all of baseball
Just saw on Fangraphs that their team BABIP before Kiermaier was injured was .266, since his injury it has been .343. Now obviously that can't be all due to Kiermaier, but that's still pretty startling numbers.
This post was edited on 7/15/16 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 7/15/16 at 5:01 pm to The Seaward
Part of the increased BABIP against has to be defense. Brad Miller is not a shortstop and Kiermaier has missed significant time. Significant downgrades/injuries at the premium defensive positions certainly hurt Tampa pitchers. For example, Smyly has his own problems, but his FIP is like a full run above his ERA.
Posted on 7/15/16 at 5:02 pm to The Seaward
Tampa had also been in a pure tail spin over the past four weeks. Have not followed closely, but I bet injuries, underperformance, bad luck, etc all stuck at the same time.
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