re: Official Week 7 College Football Bet Thread

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Love USC and Utah St

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I like Utah State. I'll probably lay off that USC game.

Power Conference huge dogs have been solid this season, and especially so out West. Don't just take the points; take the points and sprinkle the ML.

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aTm +4

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Is this like a hipster pick?

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I put this in yesterday, just to get some action going on the current ATP Masters tournament in Shanghai. I have decent knowledge of tennis, so I know who 'should' win these matches.

Anyway, I hit 6/7, with the only loss being the highest favored play of the parlay. fricking Roger Federer, the most confident pick of all. btw, the 2 pending plays did end up winning, making it 6/7.

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Tennis ML parlays are tricky. I try to stay away. Sometimes I'll do a two-match parlay just to bring crazy odds down to earth on matches where there is little doubt about the outcome, but after that I'd just as soon play the matches individually.

I'm on a nice little tennis streak right now. Actually, 'streak' might be misleading, because I haven't been making daily plays or anything -- just kinda randomly swooping in and out. Flipping Rafa-250 against Jack Sock after he straight-setted Sock's boy Pospy was essentially stealing. I haven't ruled out a formal charge on that.

Btw, Rafa looked good in Beijing; maybe the best he's looked all season. The fact that Djokovic worked him over in the final doesn't undermine that statement either. If Rafa beats Novak Djokovic again -- ever -- it's happening on clay. And I'd be surprised to see that.

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I'd call that foreseeable.

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But the LSU players couldn't, hence, a trap game.

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But the LSU players couldn't, hence, a trap game.

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I'll fess up that I'm being a smidgeon argumentative. But I could fairly say that "trap game" should be more precisely defined, or used less frequently, or both.

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Is this like a hipster pick?

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You don't like my abbreviation, Bobby?

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yeah rafa looked good all tournament. even in the final, I dont think the final score was indicativr of how 'game' nadal was. in the end, it's a 2-2 beat down at djoker's hand, though I guess.

conversely, novak is looking and playing incredibly confident these days.

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Novak is bordering on unfathomably good right now. Unlike Federer, his greatness doesn't really jump off the screen at you against a middling player. It's when he plays the top guys that it becomes apparent. Like, how do you beat that guy right now? What are his weaknesses?

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yeah rafa looked good all tournament. even in the final, I dont think the final score was indicativr of how 'game' nadal was.

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I agree. It's just kind of deflating to see him play, all things considered, pretty well, and still get handed a 2 and 2.

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Well you didn't like the Tennessee pick last week either and we know how that turned out. Similar situation this week. Coker and Kiffin don't scare me.

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One significant difference is that Mark Richt has made a fine living by coaching football teams that are generally good but that completely shite the bed 3 games a season. Nick Saban hasn't.

Also, I believe that the difference between UT and UGA is less than the difference between Bama and TAMU. As a general betting principle, I don't bet on sub-touchdown dogs unless I think they're going to win the game outright. That isn't a universal canon or anything, it's just a guiding principle I tend to use myself.

And I don't think TAMU is beating Bama outright.

Do you think TAMU is going to beat Bama outright?

And, yes, I am wrong about my bets all the time. Not claiming infallibility; just opining that I would -- and maybe will -- be on the opposite side of that one.

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we've always struggled against Arky State.

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But to go from up 31-20 to down 49-31 in a matter of five minutes was absurd.