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Louie T
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
34659 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
That's something someone else came up with? You mind emailing to me?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 11:17 am


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
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re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
quote:

That's something someone else came up with? You mind emailing to me?


Chris Greene's spreadsheet.

Download it here from my google docs.

LINK

ETA: The sheet was updated thru W4. There could be some slight changes for this week, but there should not be a big discrepancy for W6.
This post was edited on 10/12 at 12:03 pm


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Jesus.....Gonna have to learn how to use this thing.



LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
quote:

Jesus.....Gonna have to learn how to use this thing.


Compare Team Total Ratings between opponents. It's supposed to give an indication what the line should be.

Atlanta is -9.5 but the spreadsheet says the true spread should be -18 or so.

Also, if one team's rating is 3x the other, it's supposed be close to a lock.

The individual position ratings are fluid because it's based on stats, which fluctuates week to week.


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
I'm an idiot. I had the Pats/Seattle game on the brain while looking up Atlanta, so I compared the Falcons # to the Seahawks #. Couldn't figure out where the 3:1 ratio he was talking about came from

Thanks for the help

ETA: So Dallas for example, getting +3.5 @ Baltimore should be a play since the ratings has the Dallas total rating higher than Baltimore's correct?

Or do we have to adjust each rating for homefield advantage?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 12:45 pm


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Louie T
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
34659 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Will do when I get home

Any idea what % he hit has year and hitting these year on both leans & locks?


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
quote:


Any idea what % he hit has year and hitting these year on both leans & locks?



The 3:1 ratio is the highest % but I don't have those numbers.

His lines vs Vegas lines last week were 10-4 ATS overall.

The lines that were more than 5 more points different than Vegas were 6-2.


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
What would be the best way to account for homefield advantage? Same 3 pt swing in the line generated by the spreadsheet?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 4:56 pm


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
quote:

Same 3 pt swing in the line generated by the spreadsheet?


The spreadsheet only adds 1 point to the home teams total rating.

I'm going to send $90 to Chris for season long updates. I'll share the updates with you guys so we can all win.


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
If I did the calculations on my spreadsheet correctly, Greene's #'s would indicate we should play:

Cin -2.5
Indy +3.5
KC +4
Atl -9.5
Dal +3.5
Det +3.5
Mia -4
Sea +3.5
Ari -3.5
NYG +6.5
Hou -3.5
Den +1

Someone would need to verify this for me, in case I'm missing something.


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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
I received the updated info..

Here you guys go:

3:1 Ration plays
Atlanta -9 is a 3:1 Ratio over Oakland (30.2 to 9.95)

Big leans (lines off by 7+ with NBS)
Cincinnati -2 is a big lean (NBS says CIN -10.5)
Arizona -4.5 is a big lean (NBS says ARI -13)
Minnesota +2 is a big lean (NBS says MIN -7.5)
Houston -3 is a big lean (NBS says HOU -20)

Small Leans (Line difference 6 or less)
Kansas City +4 is a small lean (NBS says KC -2)
Indianapolis +3 is a small lean (NBS says NYJ/Ind P)
Detroit +3 is a small lean (NBS says Phil/Det P)
Dallas +3 is a small lean (NBS says Balt/Dal P
Seattle +3 is a small lean (NBS says SEA -3)

This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:41 pm


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
I thought Minnesota was on a bye week?

What's your personal preference on what you play?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:35 pm


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, JAX are on byes..

KC +4 is a small lean with Quinn starting. They would have been a big lean with Cassel.
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:39 pm


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Wow my bad. I was going off what 5dimes has listed. They don't have the WAS/MIN game on the board.

Thanks for the info
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:40 pm


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
If you wanted to play them all, my guess would be:

3:1 ratios 4U
Big leans 2U
Small leans 1U

..and hope the 3:1 doesn't suffer a KOR TD like Houston did to lose ATS.


dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
That sounds like a good idea.


HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16154 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Probably waiting to see if RGIII play before they post that game on the board.


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
34511 posts
 Online 

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
I recently eclipsed 20000 posts and didn't realize it..



bamafan425
Colorado State Fan
Denver via Chattanooga
Member since Jan 2009
24969 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Overnight bump.


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dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
16967 posts

re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Well, after the shallacking I took in CFB, I may just load it all up on Atlanta -9 (would -9.5 be a bad play?)

Maybe take the winngs and roll it to Houston -3


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