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MLB Farm Systems Ranked by Surplus fWAR
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:42 pm
LINK
here are the results
quote:
You smell that? It’s baseball’s prospect-list season. The fresh top-100 lists — populated by new names as well as old ones — seem to be popping up each day. With the individual rankings coming out, some organization rankings are becoming available, as well. I have always regarded the organizational rankings as subjective — and, as a result, not 100% useful. Utilizing the methodology I introduced in my article on prospect evaluation from this year’s Hardball Times Annual, however, it’s possible to calculate a total value for every team’s farm system and remove the biases of subjectivity. In what follows, I’ve used that same process to rank all 30 of baseball’s farm systems by the surplus WAR they should generate.
I provide a detailed explanation of my methodology in the Annual article. To summarize it briefly, however, what I’ve done is to identify WAR equivalencies for the scouting grades produced by Baseball America in their annual Prospect Handbook. The grade-to-WAR conversion appears as follows.
here are the results
quote:
My thoughts:
Boston has the best system by this measure, with some heavy hitters at the top: both Yoan Moncada and Anderson Espinoza feature 70 grades, while Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi earn 65s. The second-ranked Dodgers were the only other team with two 70-grade prospects.
Three distinct tiers exist: one ranging from 33.5 WAR to 37.0 WAR (six teams) and another from 25 WAR to 28.5 WAR (nine teams). The final one covers 11.0 to 15.5 WAR (seven teams). These three tiers make up 22 of the teams with the other teams sprinkled in-between.
I had to check the Angels system a couple times to see if it is this bad. They only have one player graded at 55. The Cubs, by comparison, have nine.
It was necessary this year for an organization to employ at least one 65 or higher-graded player to have a top-half farm system. The top 17 ranked systems had one such player, the bottom 13 didn’t.
Some preseason contenders — the Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, Astros, and Nationals — have the system depth to go get a decent player at the trade deadline. Other teams like the Angels, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox just don’t have as many pieces to trade.
This post was edited on 2/23/16 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:48 pm to WestCoastAg
Poor Trout. Angels are headed for some really lean years Astros and Reds style unless they just try to spend their way out of it
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:52 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
what's left to spend?
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:52 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
The difference between the angels and the next to worst is the same as the difference between the 2nd best and 6th best
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:55 pm to WinnPtiger
Moreno is still pretty wealthy (unless I missed something) and he's certainly shown a willingness to spend in the past. Even that likely won't make them any sort of contender, it would just make 65 win seasons 75 win seasons. It would keep people showing up though.
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:56 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Feel like it'd be so awful to be an Angels fan because even when the Astros were so bad, kinda similar to where the reds are now, we atleast knew in 5 or so years we would be competitive again with so many high draft picks and such. The Angels are going to finish in the middle of the pack with the team they've got now and will not likely be having any top 5 picks as long as Trout stays healthy
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:59 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
I would love for them to win 70 games for the next decade. and mock them every time they put Alberts check in the mail
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:59 pm to 5 Deep
quote:
The Angels are going to finish in the middle of the pack with the team they've got now and will not likely be having any top 5 picks as long as Trout stays healthy
They could be pretty bad here in a few years. Trout is incredible but he's not going to account for 15 wins by himself
This post was edited on 2/23/16 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 2/23/16 at 4:59 pm to 5 Deep
I don't know. I think the angels are about two years out from being an absolute dumpster fire
Posted on 2/23/16 at 5:05 pm to WestCoastAg
Yeah I just think they're a long way from being Reds/Brewers/Rockies bad. Especially if they go out and try to spend big in the near future and sign an really good starter
Posted on 2/23/16 at 5:13 pm to WestCoastAg
I wish the Zephyrs was not associated with that shite of a organization called the Marlins
Posted on 2/23/16 at 7:09 pm to WinnPtiger
quote:
what's left to spend?
Don't know--how many years do they still have to help pay the Rangers for Hamilton to sit on the DL?
Posted on 2/23/16 at 8:27 pm to WestCoastAg
Sounds like another made up stat to make Boston look better.
Posted on 2/23/16 at 9:35 pm to NorthshoreTiger76
quote:
I wish the Zephyrs was not associated with that shite of a organization called the Marlins
I really miss the years they were associated with the Astros - got to see their games on tv and watch the prospects on Airline. Hated when the Astros left and the Mets came in, now even worse being the Marlins that have absolutely no clue what they're doing.
Posted on 2/23/16 at 11:49 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
They could be pretty bad here in a few years. Trout is incredible but he's not going to account for 15 wins by himself
There's always a way to get competitive, especially when you have trout locked up. They could sell off everything they have for prospects except for trout. There will be some players that nobody will give anything up for and guys whose contracts are unmovable. But if they sell off whatever they can to build the farm system and sign a couple free agents they could be competitive.
Take the Braves for example. Their farm system was barren a couple years ago. Now it's a consensus top 5. If they had a Trout to build around and a budget as high as the Angels they would have made a complete rebuild in 2 years.
This post was edited on 2/23/16 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 2/24/16 at 12:04 am to WestCoastAg
well at least the doyers are good at something
Posted on 2/24/16 at 12:37 am to Horsemeat
The Marlins never do. Until they do out of no where and win another GD World Series. Is there a more bipolar organization in ANY professional sport?
Posted on 2/24/16 at 12:58 am to Theoldgraycoat
What's a little crazy, is how high Minnesota remains, despite the Sano and Buxton show spending last year in the bigs, a third every day player in Rosario being a rookie fixture in the lineup as well as May as a middle of the rotation starter for a half season.
It isn't often you get 4 major league guys in one year, and have a system hold up. The Cubs are the other obviously ridiculously loaded system that hasn't completely fallen off to the bottom after a huge rookie class.
It isn't often you get 4 major league guys in one year, and have a system hold up. The Cubs are the other obviously ridiculously loaded system that hasn't completely fallen off to the bottom after a huge rookie class.
This post was edited on 2/24/16 at 1:00 am
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