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How passing has changed in the NFL (2005-2016 v. 1978-1983)
Posted on 6/11/17 at 9:43 pm
Posted on 6/11/17 at 9:43 pm
It is difficult to compare athletes from different eras and the Jay Cutler v. Troy Aikman thread led me to consider how to do so. As a result, I was curious about 1) how, statistically, former quarterbacks compared to current quarterbacks and 2) if the passing game has changed over time.
To investigate, I put together a REALLY CRAPPY dataset including quarterback stats from 2005-2016 (I got bored copy and pasting at around 2005) and 1978-1983 (from when the NFL went to a 16 game format and omitting 1982's lockout). I also removed quarterbacks from the datasheet who did not show up at least 3 times. There are a lot of issues with my methods, but I am on vacation and I think it does a decent job addressing the proposed questions.
To compare quarterbacks, I corrected for the influence of year on Yds, TDs, and Ints (not super informative) and presented the top 5 quarterbacks for each category.
Yards - Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dan Fouts, Lynn Dickey, Tom Brady
Touchdowns - Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Danny White, Brian Sipe
Most Interceptions - Lynn Dickey, Ken Stabler, Tommy Krammer, Jon Kitna
Least Interceptions - Marc Bulger, Craig Morton, Gary Danielson, Steve Fuller, Josh McCown, Joe Montana
I think it is interesting (yet not surprising) to see that Brees, Manning, and Brady are dominant quarterbacks regardless of time!
Next, I wanted to know if the passing game has changed between these two periods... I used an unsupervised learning algorithm known as PCA, where each point represents an overview of each quarterback's yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and completion percentage, colored by year (first plot) or era (second plot).
I think the second graph is the most interesting because there is a clear distinction between current and past quarterbacks based on the clustering. Further, from the arrows, it appears that quarterbacks used to throw a lot more interceptions, while current quarterbacks have higher completion percentages.
I hope you can forgive my terrible dataset and lazy methods, but I had fun playing around with some of this data. I am on vacation for the next week and have plenty of free time if anyone has better datasets or more interesting questions.
To investigate, I put together a REALLY CRAPPY dataset including quarterback stats from 2005-2016 (I got bored copy and pasting at around 2005) and 1978-1983 (from when the NFL went to a 16 game format and omitting 1982's lockout). I also removed quarterbacks from the datasheet who did not show up at least 3 times. There are a lot of issues with my methods, but I am on vacation and I think it does a decent job addressing the proposed questions.
To compare quarterbacks, I corrected for the influence of year on Yds, TDs, and Ints (not super informative) and presented the top 5 quarterbacks for each category.
Yards - Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dan Fouts, Lynn Dickey, Tom Brady
Touchdowns - Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Danny White, Brian Sipe
Most Interceptions - Lynn Dickey, Ken Stabler, Tommy Krammer, Jon Kitna
Least Interceptions - Marc Bulger, Craig Morton, Gary Danielson, Steve Fuller, Josh McCown, Joe Montana
I think it is interesting (yet not surprising) to see that Brees, Manning, and Brady are dominant quarterbacks regardless of time!
Next, I wanted to know if the passing game has changed between these two periods... I used an unsupervised learning algorithm known as PCA, where each point represents an overview of each quarterback's yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and completion percentage, colored by year (first plot) or era (second plot).
I think the second graph is the most interesting because there is a clear distinction between current and past quarterbacks based on the clustering. Further, from the arrows, it appears that quarterbacks used to throw a lot more interceptions, while current quarterbacks have higher completion percentages.
I hope you can forgive my terrible dataset and lazy methods, but I had fun playing around with some of this data. I am on vacation for the next week and have plenty of free time if anyone has better datasets or more interesting questions.
5
Posted on 6/11/17 at 9:55 pm to BioBobcat
"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."
J/K....I upvoted. Good analysis.
But how did more general stats like YPG and passing TDs per game compare, regardless of QB?
J/K....I upvoted. Good analysis.
But how did more general stats like YPG and passing TDs per game compare, regardless of QB?
Posted on 6/11/17 at 9:59 pm to TDFreak
Good question! The place I got the data from didn't include those metrics (which shows you how bad my data was), but I will spend some time this week to put together a more complete dataset, run some different analyses, and report my findings.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 10:28 pm to BioBobcat
Passer ratings...
Does anyone believe for one second, for example, that Carson Palmer (No. 6), Daunte Culpepper (No. 7) and Chad Pennington (No. 8), are better quarterbacks than Roger Staubach (No. 22), Bart Starr (No. 38) and Johnny Unitas (No. 53)?
Of course not.
The truth is that it's simply much easier to pass the ball today than it was back in the Dead Ball Era 1960s and 1970s when Staubach, Starr and Unitas played.
It is reasonable to assume, for example, that if Unitas played with modern rules that favor the passing game he would have a slightly higher passer rating than 21st-century journeyman Aaron Brooks (No. 50, 78.53).
That's right, folks, Aaron Brooks boasts a better career passer rating than Johnny U. If that injustice doesn't tell you the game has changed, nothing will.
Does anyone believe for one second, for example, that Carson Palmer (No. 6), Daunte Culpepper (No. 7) and Chad Pennington (No. 8), are better quarterbacks than Roger Staubach (No. 22), Bart Starr (No. 38) and Johnny Unitas (No. 53)?
Of course not.
The truth is that it's simply much easier to pass the ball today than it was back in the Dead Ball Era 1960s and 1970s when Staubach, Starr and Unitas played.
It is reasonable to assume, for example, that if Unitas played with modern rules that favor the passing game he would have a slightly higher passer rating than 21st-century journeyman Aaron Brooks (No. 50, 78.53).
That's right, folks, Aaron Brooks boasts a better career passer rating than Johnny U. If that injustice doesn't tell you the game has changed, nothing will.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 10:30 pm to BioBobcat
The Top 21 players on the all-time passer rating list have one thing in common: they all spent their entire careers playing in the Live Ball Era (1978-present).
You have to go all the way down to Roger Staubach at No. 22 (83.42) to find a player who spent the bulk of his career in the Dead Ball Era, and all the way down to Sonny Jurgensen at No. 26 (82.62) to find a player who spent his entire career in the Dead Ball Era. (The Dead Ball Era ended with the 1977 season.)
You have to go all the way down to Roger Staubach at No. 22 (83.42) to find a player who spent the bulk of his career in the Dead Ball Era, and all the way down to Sonny Jurgensen at No. 26 (82.62) to find a player who spent his entire career in the Dead Ball Era. (The Dead Ball Era ended with the 1977 season.)
Posted on 6/11/17 at 10:37 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
In 2012, 11 quarterbacks threw for at least 4,000 yards, which is another NFL record. Joe Namath was the first to do it in 1967, which remains an incredible feat given it was a 14-game season.
Since then, a quarterback has passed for at least 4,000 yards a total of 110 times. A whopping 36 of those (32.7 percent) have come since 2009. The following chart shows the number of 4,000-yard passers per season:
It comes down to opportunity. For a quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards, he needs to play games and throw passes. Even if he attempts 500 passes, averaging 8.00 yards per attempt is still no easy task. Only seven times has a quarterback finished with fewer than 500 attempts in a 4,000-yard season.
That is why no one threw for 4,000 yards again after Namath until Dan Fouts did it in 1979. He needed the 16-game season, which started in 1978.
The other pivotal change that year was the “Mel Blount Rule” for illegal contact after five yards. That opened up the passing game, and the extended season opened up the opportunity to add volume to passing stats. Quarterbacks like Fouts and Dan Marino were among the first to take advantage.
Since then, a quarterback has passed for at least 4,000 yards a total of 110 times. A whopping 36 of those (32.7 percent) have come since 2009. The following chart shows the number of 4,000-yard passers per season:
It comes down to opportunity. For a quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards, he needs to play games and throw passes. Even if he attempts 500 passes, averaging 8.00 yards per attempt is still no easy task. Only seven times has a quarterback finished with fewer than 500 attempts in a 4,000-yard season.
That is why no one threw for 4,000 yards again after Namath until Dan Fouts did it in 1979. He needed the 16-game season, which started in 1978.
The other pivotal change that year was the “Mel Blount Rule” for illegal contact after five yards. That opened up the passing game, and the extended season opened up the opportunity to add volume to passing stats. Quarterbacks like Fouts and Dan Marino were among the first to take advantage.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 10:53 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Defending is now harder.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 11:05 pm to CelticDog
Defending now is borderline impossible.
People really underestimate the Mel Blount rule.
Not the rule itself but the reasoning. Most of the greatest scoring defenses of all-time played in the 1970s. For a reason.
The NFL had to actually make a rule that you can't mug a receiver beyond 5 yards of the LOS.
Scoring was so low.
A QB can only throw to a receiver if he's open, not lying on the ground after going over the middle.
People really underestimate the Mel Blount rule.
Not the rule itself but the reasoning. Most of the greatest scoring defenses of all-time played in the 1970s. For a reason.
The NFL had to actually make a rule that you can't mug a receiver beyond 5 yards of the LOS.
Scoring was so low.
A QB can only throw to a receiver if he's open, not lying on the ground after going over the middle.
Posted on 6/12/17 at 8:16 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Aint no dead ball or live ball.
Defense rules is the key as noted well above.
Dont start nonsense "live ball" meme re 1960.
Yes hardball has been tinkered with. The shape and design of football in nfl has not changed since merger.
Comment directed to guy who used dead ball live ball
Defense rules is the key as noted well above.
Dont start nonsense "live ball" meme re 1960.
Yes hardball has been tinkered with. The shape and design of football in nfl has not changed since merger.
Comment directed to guy who used dead ball live ball
This post was edited on 6/12/17 at 8:17 am
Posted on 6/12/17 at 9:03 am to BioBobcat
Bringing Principal Component Analysis to sports message boards. Nice.
What stats package are you running over there?
What stats package are you running over there?
Posted on 6/12/17 at 9:18 am to BioBobcat
What about the eyeball test?!?!
Posted on 6/12/17 at 9:31 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
The QB position has changed so much over time it is possible the old greats would have never had the ability or talent to make it in the current era so dependent on passing. So when people dismiss and say a certain present day QB with good stats is no way better than an older QB from a different era it dismisses the notion the game is different also.
They had different rules, but today the overall athleticism and talent of the league is better and the systems are more complex. Due to the growing of the NFL, College Football, and technology we have more athletes from all over the country being developed and creating a deeper stronger talent pool for the NFL to draw.
They had different rules, but today the overall athleticism and talent of the league is better and the systems are more complex. Due to the growing of the NFL, College Football, and technology we have more athletes from all over the country being developed and creating a deeper stronger talent pool for the NFL to draw.
Posted on 6/12/17 at 9:42 am to BioBobcat
quote:
Jay Cutler v. Troy Aikman
Posted on 6/12/17 at 9:45 am to Colonel Flagg
This is how it has changed:
You've got guys that are 6'5, 250lbs+ running 4.3 with great hands. Given current NFL rules, corners and safeties will struggle to defend these guys.
You've got guys that are 6'5, 250lbs+ running 4.3 with great hands. Given current NFL rules, corners and safeties will struggle to defend these guys.
This post was edited on 6/12/17 at 9:49 am
Posted on 6/12/17 at 10:00 am to Forkbeard3777
quote:
You've got guys that are 6'5, 250lbs+ running 4.3 with great hands. Given current NFL rules, corners and safeties will struggle to defend these guys.
If QB is such an easy position these days compared to the past why is it still considered the most important position for team success. Basically everyone should have a QB that is reasonably comparable and the defensive side of the ball should be where it is considered the most important. We still talk about teams going crazy over trying to find an "adequate QB".
The game is so fast and complex now there is no doubt in my mind that old great QBs might have never had the aptitude to play the position today.
This post was edited on 6/12/17 at 10:04 am
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