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Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
21785 posts
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Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

Although the numbers below can and will change, as of this writing, the model forecasts that five players—the biggest class since the very first one in 1936—will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Iván Rodríguez, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero. Almost as notably, Edgar Martínez, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will see significant (~20-point) jumps from their 2016 support, putting them in line for eventual election. Meanwhile, Curt Schilling’s support will slip noticeably, and Lee Smith will drop off the ballot in his 15th year of eligibility. Although Jorge Posada will be a close call, the model currently does not expect any serious candidates to fall beneath the five percent support threshold.

Rodríguez correlates pretty well with Bonds and Clemens, but there’s another candidate from Hall of Fame elections past who’s an even better match. Like Rodríguez, Mike Piazza was a catcher well above his position’s standards for enshrinement but dogged by the shadow of PED accusations; it’s little surprise that his and Rodríguez’s supporters strongly overlap. Rather than settle for a less robust correlation, I opted to treat Rodríguez as if he were simply Piazza reincarnated on the ballot; his -8.5 percent adjustment is what Piazza’s would have been had he not been elected last year.

Guerrero is this year’s trickiest call. Not only is he the player closest to the 75 percent threshold for induction, but he isn’t a clear statistical doppelganger for any other candidate on the ballot. His strongest correlation is with Hoffman and his old-school supporters, but it’s not as dramatic as the other rookies’: 81 percent of Hoffman voters so far have opted for Guerrero, but 67 percent of non-Hoffman voters have too. That currently calculates out to a slender 1.2-point gain for Guerrero on private ballots, but there’s a large margin of error. For the candidate over whom there is the most suspense this year, that’s not ideal.


LINK


little billy
LSU Fan
Orange County, CA
Member since May 2015
2927 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
Weak class for 5 inductees if so although the steroid Mount Rushmore guys being kept out are watering down the classes.


brgfather129
Texas Tech Fan
Los Angeles, CA
Member since Jul 2009
12838 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.


tigerpimpbot
LA-Monroe Fan
Florida board
Member since Nov 2011
47072 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

the biggest class since the very first one in 1936—will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Iván Rodríguez, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero. Almost as notably, Edgar Martínez, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will see significant (~20-point) jumps from their 2016 support


How the pretentious sports writers distinguish some of these full on roid heads from others is beyond full retard. What a joke
This post was edited on 1/11 at 6:04 am


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60
Colonel Flagg
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
14043 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
The voters are morons.


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rmc
LSU Fan
Zachary, LA
Member since Sep 2004
23481 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.


Was thinking the same thing.


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Hot Carl
Atlanta Braves Fan
#TEAMSERGIO
Member since Dec 2005
42859 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Bagwell and Pudge and not Bonds.




winntiger
LSU Fan
318
Member since Jul 2004
588 posts
 Online 

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
How does Bagwell get in over the Crime Dog?


goldennugget
LSU Fan
Gary Chambers
Member since Jul 2013
19384 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
As a Rangers fan who idolized Pudge as a kid the hall is a joke if they elect him and continue to keep out Bonds


DallasTiger45
LSU Fan
Member since May 2012
3351 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

I wonder what goes through the mind of someone who votes for Pudge and not Bonds.


Not a whole lot, because these people are morons.


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CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
14765 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
Bonds career prior to his hamstring injury and subsequent use of healing drugs was already HOF IMHO.



AwesomeSauce
Bucknell Fan
Das Boot
Member since May 2015
2881 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

As a Rangers fan who idolized Pudge as a kid the hall is a joke if they elect him and continue to keep out Bonds



Seconded.


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1ranter1
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2008
8572 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

Guerrero is this year’s trickiest call


Vlad's slash line .318/.379/.553 .931 OPS 59.3 WAR

Ichiro's slash line .313/.356/.405 .761 OPS 59.9 WAR

Some people laughably consider Ichiro a top 10 hitter of all time. And Vlad is struggling to make the HOF.

Add that to players like Bonds and Clemens not getting in, while David Ortiz probably will. MLB HOF has gone from being prestigious to being the biggest joke in sports.


David Ricky
Memphis Fan
Hailing From Parts Unknown
Member since Sep 2015
6420 posts
 Online 

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
This entire process is laughable imo. Either you're a hall of famer or you're not. Making guys wait 10 years after eligibility and following their percentage of votes like it's the fricking stock market is absurd.


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40
DallasTiger45
LSU Fan
Member since May 2012
3351 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

MLB HOF has gone from being prestigious to being the biggest joke in sports.



I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely reaching a crossroads with the steroid suspicion lot now eligible.


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stlslick
Missouri Fan
St.Louis,Mo
Member since Nov 2012
10646 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

Iván Rodríguez


One of the biggest roiders in the game, lol


That whole Rangers team was juiced out of their gourds


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21
Carson123987
Texas Fan
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
52730 posts
 Online 

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

Jeff Bagwell,


quote:

Iván Rodríguez


no chance


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06
mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Member since Nov 2015
8150 posts
 Online 

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:

Weak class for 5 inductees if so although the steroid Mount Rushmore guys being kept out are watering down the classes.


Might not be the Mount Rushmore of PEDs, but this class has some raised eyebrow double-standards.

Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Iván Rodríguez, Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero


AlbertMeansWell
Alabama Fan
Memphis Brah!
Member since Sep 2013
2907 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
Vlad should be a 1st ballot guy. Great ballplayer


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10
GynoSandberg
Clemson Fan
Member since Jan 2006
52440 posts

re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF
quote:


Vlad's slash line .318/.379/.553 .931 OPS 59.3 WAR

Ichiro's slash line .313/.356/.405 .761 OPS 59.9 WAR

Some people laughably consider Ichiro a top 10 hitter of all time. And Vlad is struggling to make the HOF.


Let's go big picture here

Ichiro was 27 y/o as a rookie. Imagine his WAR with, say, 5 more years in his early twenties. His averages have also taken a hit bc he insists on playing into his 40s


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